世界經濟主要指標

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世界經濟主要指標

國家統計局國際統計信息中心

一、世界經濟

表1　世界經濟增長率(上年=100)　單位：%

注: 1.國際貨幣基金組織公布的世界及分類數據按照購買力平價方法進行匯總，世界銀行和英國共識公司按匯率法進行匯總。 2.印度數據指財政年度。2014年度數據為印度官方大幅上修后數據，而2015年及2016年數據系參照官方修訂后數據的預測結果。3.各經濟體2014年數據已據其官方發布結果作了調整。

表2　世界貿易量增長率(上年=100)　單位：%

注: 包括貨物和服務。

資料來源: 國際貨幣基金組織2016年1月預測，其中出口數據為2015年10月份預測。

表3　消費者價格漲跌率(上年=100)　單位：%

注: 1.印度來源于英國共識公司的數據指財政年度。 2.各經濟體2014年數據已據其官方發布結果作了調整。

表4　消費者價格同比上漲率　單位：%

資料來源: 世界銀行數據庫。

表5工業生產

年份月份工業生產指數同比增長率(%)JP摩根全球制造業采購經理人指數世界發達國家發展中國家全球PMI產出指數新訂單指數2014年3.22.75.212月3.21.85.451.552.052.02015年1月3.21.74.151.752.952.22月2.51.44.351.953.252.23月2.51.54.251.753.352.14月1.91.14.151.051.751.05月1.90.73.751.351.951.46月2.51.34.551.051.451.37月2.50.83.751.151.751.38月2.51.34.250.751.051.49月1.90.83.250.751.051.410月2.50.84.051.351.952.011月1.20.03.251.252.351.412月50.951.751.1

注: 1.工業生產指數同比增長率為經季節調整的數據。2.采購經理人指數超過50預示著經濟擴張期。

資料來源: 世界銀行數據庫、美國供應管理協會。

二、美國經濟

表6　國內生產總值及其構成增長率(環比)　單位：%

表7　國內生產總值及其構成增長率(環比)　單位：%

注: 季度數據按季節因素調整、折年率計算(表6、表7)。

資料來源: 美國商務部經濟分析局(表6、表7)。

表8　國內生產總值及其構成增長率(同比)　單位：%

表9　國內生產總值及其構成增長率(同比)　單位：%

注: 季度數據按季節因素調整(表8、表9)。

資料來源: 美國商務部經濟分析局(表8、表9)。

表10　勞動力市場　單位：%

注:除年度數據以外，勞動生產率增長率為該月份所在季度的增長率。

資料來源: 美國勞工統計局。

表11　進出口貿易　單位：億美元

注:包括貨物和服務貿易。因季節調整，各月合計數據不等于全年總計數據。

資料來源: 美國商務部普查局。

表12　外國直接投資　單位：億美元

資料來源: 美國商務部經濟分析局。

三、歐元區經濟

表13　國內生產總值及其構成增長率(環比)　單位：%

表14　國內生產總值及其構成增長率(環比)　單位：%

資料來源: 歐盟統計局數據庫(表13、表14)。

表15　勞動力市場　單位：%

注:除年度數據以外，勞動生產率增長率為該月份所在季度增長率；就業人數為該月份所在季度的環比變化。

資料來源: 歐洲央行統計月報、歐盟統計局數據庫。

表16　國內生產總值及其構成增長率(同比)　單位：%

表17　國內生產總值及其構成增長率(同比)　單位：%

資料來源: 歐盟統計局數據庫(表16、表17)。

表18　進出口貿易　單位：億歐元

注:歐元區絕對數指歐元區現有范圍，即19個成員國。貿易額不包括歐元區各成員國相互之間的貿易額，為經季節調整后的數據。

資料來源: 歐盟統計局數據庫。

表19　外國直接投資　單位：億歐元

注:歐元區絕對數指歐元區現有范圍，即19個成員國。歐元區外國直接投資額不包括歐元區各成員國相互之間的直接投資額。

資料來源: 歐洲央行統計月報。

四、日本經濟

表20　國內生產總值及其構成增長率(環比)　單位：%

表21　國內生產總值及其構成增長率(環比)　單位：%

表22　國內生產總值及其構成增長率(同比)　單位：%

表23　國內生產總值及其構成增長率(同比)　單位：%

資料來源: 日本內閣府(表20~表23)。

表24　勞動力市場　單位：%

資料來源: 日本統計局和日本央行統計月報。

表25　進出口貿易　單位：億日元

注:月度貿易額為季節調整后數據。

資料來源: 日本財務省。

表26　外國直接投資　單位：億日元

資料來源: 日本財務省。

五、其他主要國家和地區經濟

表27　國內生產總值增長率(同比)　單位：%

注: 印度年度GDP增長率為財年增長率。

表28　國內生產總值增長率(同比)　單位：%

資料來源: 各經濟體官方統計網站。

表29　勞動力市場失業率　單位：%

表30　勞動力市場失業率　單位：%

注: 1.英國和中國香港月度數據為截至當月的3個月移動平均失業率。2.加拿大、英國、韓國和中國香港為經季節因素調整后的失業率。

資料來源: 各經濟體官方統計網站。

表31　進出口貿易　單位：億美元

注: 加拿大和英國數據經過季節因素調整。

表32　進出口貿易　單位：億美元

表33　進出口貿易　單位：億美元

表34　進出口貿易　單位：億美元

表35　進出口貿易　單位：億美元

表36　進出口貿易　單位：億美元

資料來源: 各經濟體官方統計網站(表27～表36)。六、三大經濟體指標對比圖

圖1　三大經濟體GDP環比增長率(%)　注：美國為環比折年率增長率。

圖2　三大經濟體失業率變動(%)

圖3　三大經濟體出口額同比增長率(%)

圖4　三大經濟體進口額同比增長率(%)　數據來源：各經濟體官方統計網站(圖1~圖4)。

ABSTRACTS

(1) New Thinking Should be Adopted for the Macro-management under the New Economic Normal

Zeng Peiyan

As the global economy has not completely stepped out of the shadow of the international financial crisis, it may present a trend of “four lows and one high”, namely, low growth, low trade, low inflation, low investment and high debts, and thus the momentum for economic recovery is still too weak. In the next five years, the internal and external environment of China is going to face is even more complex than that during the 12th Five-Year period, with tougher tasks and greater challenges. In the economic transition process from the old normal to the new normal, we must explore a new way for macro-management, especially a “problem-oriented” way of thinking. To solve the problems of overcapacity, over inventory, deleveraging, lowering cost, and shoring up weak growth areas, we should connect well the supply side and the demand side,stick to the “bottom line thinking” , preeisely identify, predict and mitigate risks and improve and innovate policy toolbox, so as to stabilize and boost the economic growth. There are five questions deserved further discussion in the future macro-management.

(2)Building a World Tourism Power in an All-Round Way

Wei Liqun

China has become a big tourism nation worldwide. At present, the study and formulation of the tourism development strategies during the 13th Five-Year period are being made by the governments from the central to the local levels. Therefore, it is of great practical and long-term significance for us to overall assess current development situation of our country’s tourism, scientifically understand the basic content of being a strong country and in tourism development experience from major world tourism powers, correctly analyze the opportunities and challenges in the process of building a tourism power, and conduct study on and put forward important strategies and initiatives to be implemented.

(3)Tracing to the Source of Supply-side School and Initial Analysis on its Law

Jia Kang, Su Jingchun

This article sorts out the two rounds negation of negation law during the development of Supply-side economic schools. The logic of the first rounds is from Say’s Law to Keynesianism and Supply-side School. The logic of the second rounds is from Supply-side School to Keynesianism’s Restoration and Supply-side Management. Based on the development law, this article discussed the assessments, which related scientific principles and expectations. There are two aspects in the assessments. The first one is the assessments on Say’s Law, which conclude the understanding of its importance, Sismondi’s criticism of laissez-faire values, Malthus’s ideas of demand management and their differences, Keynes’ negation on the conditional and Marx’s criticism of Bourgeois Vulgar Economics based on the value of labor product, Trinity Formula and historical materialism. The second one is the assessments on Supply-side School, which conclude the criticism from the academic circles, the gain and loss of the school of thought form the doctrine Theory Contact Practice through summarizing the main point of view of supply side and reviewing the internal differences. After elaborating the enlightenment of the two rounds of “negation of negation” law, we present the expectation of New Supply-side Economy asserting the economic study should from opposition to integration rooted in China’s practice of rational supply management. We think the New Supply-side Economics is a rational return of the Supply-side research based on development logic. Finally, we present its pragmatic characteristics, the way of negation and the new thought to the restoration.

(4)Special Topic of China Economic Annual Meeting 2015-2016

Yang Weimin, Zhang Yuyan, Liu Shijin, Zhang Xiaoqiang, Chen Xiaohua, Feng Fei

China Center for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE) held China Economic Annual Meeting 2015-2016 on December 26, 2015 in Beijing. The meeting, with “Leading the New Normal, Striving for the Decisive Victory of the 13th Five-Year Plan” as the theme, made in-depth discussions on important issues such as interpreting the Central Economic Work Conference and promoting supply-side structural reform. This issue publishes speeches delivered by five top experts, namely, Yang Weimin, Zhang Yuyan, Liu Shijin, Zhang Xiaoqiang, Chen Xiaohua, Feng Fei, at the annual meeting.

(5)Risk Evaluation of “One Belt One Road”Initiative and Countermeasures

Wei Qijia, Xiao Hongwei

It is known that the “One Belt One Road” initiative is famous for its innovation in the international economic and political development. However, risks cannot be avoided because of complex geopolitical relations. Moreover, various situations are existing among different countries, which relates to “the Belt and Road” Initiative. It is necessary to evaluate risks when carrying out the initiative of “the Belt and Road”. These risks include but not limited to investment, politics, and security fields. Finally, in this paper, some policy suggestions will be discussed in order to decrease potential risks.

(6)Study on the New Normal of Chinese Enterprises’ Outbound Foreign Direct Investment

Li Zhaogang, Peng Bo, Li Fangqing, Fang Hong

The outbound foreign direct investment of China has entered a new phase after over thirties years’ economic development. This paper has analyzed the evolution process and the new structure of China’s foreign direct investment. It has also pointed out that the outbound foreign direct investment in China has entered into the New Normal. The results have been given that the outbound foreign direct investment will bring opportunities for China’s economy’s growth,and Chinese multinational companies should grasp these opportunities to strengthen their social responsibility, integrate international resources, and implement their innovation-oriented industry arrangement.

(7) The Strategic Thinking of Building the Food Trade Channel between China (Yunnan) and Indochina

Chen Zhicheng, Kong Zhijian

Proceeding from the construction of “One Belt One Road” initiative, “New national food security strategy, ” the Yangtze River Economic Zone and leaping development of grain industry in Yunnan, this paper expounds the necessity of constructing food trade channels and analyzes basic conditions and constraints during the construction of grain trade channel,clearly defines the basic ideas and requirements as well as a key layout and main tasks, finally, puts forward the policy suggestions of building food trade channels between China (Yunnan) and Indochina .

(8)The Present Situation and Future Development of Design Innovation and Intellectual Property Right

Lin Xiaoyue,Wu Su

According to the patent statistics, this paper expounds the present state and future development of design innovation both from China and abroad as well as intellectual property, analyzes development trends and characteristics of design and innovation in China from the angle of intellectual property. Through data analysis and case studies, this paper summarizes the achievement and shortage of design innovation and intellectual property rights of Chinese enterprises, and puts forward suggestions from the perspectives of national policies and enterprise management. Hence it provides a reference for design innovation development, and implementation of the intellectual property rights protection strategy for domestic enterprises .

Editor：Guo Zhouming

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