Expert interpretation：It is not necessarily become warm if the Spring Festival comes late

How late does the Spring Festival of 2015 come？ The first day of the lunar year of 2015 is on February 19， 19 days later than 2014. People who are accustomed to spend the lunar New Year after the solar term of the beginning of spring also discover that the first day of the lunar year of 2015 coincides with the solar term of rain water. When the solar term of rain water comes， coldness lasting for a winter begins to turn warm slowly， and the snow and ice begin to melt slowly. Does this mean that the weather during the Spring Festival this year will certainly be warm？ Since 1951， there have been nine years in which the Spring Festivals come too late and are on February 15. China Weather Network's chief meteorologist， Li Xiaoquan has referred to the nationwide temperature data in February and found that temperatures of 7 of the 9 years are lower. February 1969 has a rare extremely cold weather across the country. The monthly temperatures in most part of the east are 3 ～ 6℃ lower， and those in Northeast China even are 6 ～ 8℃ lower. However， the latest two years in which the Spring Festivals come too late， namely 1999 and 2007 are warmer， even significantly warmer. Thus， the Spring Festival coming late does not mean that the weather will certainly be warm. Based on historical records， the probability of low temperatures is even bigger. The rainfalls in the nine years are quite similar， those in most years are too less.

"February is late winter， most parts of China have passed the coldest winter， the temperature begins to rise， therefore， in the second half of February， it will be slightly warmer. But February is still in winter， cold air forces are still very strong， if there are strong cold air is coming during the Spring Festival， then warm Spring Festival that we are looking for would be spoiled"， Li Xiaoquan said.

Although February's average temperature is higher than January's on the whole， "warm early winter and cold late winter"， which， in other words， was that "the third nine days since the winter solstice are not cold， while the sixth nine days are cold"， was common in the past， and the year of 2014 is like this. The outcome that national average temperatures from "the first to the third nine days since the winter solstice" in this year are higher is definitely settled， however， it remains to be seen if there will be the situation that "sixth nine days are cold" and if the Spring Festival is colder or warmer.