“一帶一路”與時代潮流關于“一帶一路”一些問題的思考

□ 文/王嵎生

●（作者系中國國際問題研究基金會戰略研究中心執行主任、中國前APEC高官）

“絲綢之路”的歷史意義和影響，人們都很清楚。它對東西方文明和思想的交流，以及經濟合作和發展，有著不可磨滅的功績，至今認為世界各國稱頌。

中國現在提出“一帶一路”規劃，既是歷史傳承，也是創新發展，并非權宜之計，更非頭腦發熱，突發奇想；而是經過深思熟慮、充分估計和分析時代潮流和國際形勢的頂層設計，有著深遠的現實意義。

一、戰略上，它順應時代的訴求。冷戰結束以來，和平、發展與合作共贏已成為不可阻擋的世界潮流，經濟全球化迅速發展，各種形式和大大小小的自貿區如雨后春筍，呼喚強有力的“互聯互通”和貿易投資自由化與便利化（APEC這幾年一直聲明要在這方面“給力”）。這是中國“一帶一路”“愿景”的主旨之一。

二、在政策行為方面，努力踐行中國傳統的“價值觀”。中國國家主席習近平說得好：一花不是春，孤雁難成行。中國“一帶一路”的“愿景”將體現平等互利的新時代伙伴關系，不爭霸，不強加于人，不干涉內政；尊重多樣文明和體制，優勢互補，謀求共同發展和“春色滿園”，為更加公平正義的世界秩序開創新局面。有人說，“一帶一路”是中國的“馬歇爾計劃”，這顯然不符合事實，無論在戰略目標還是行為準則方面，兩者都沒有可比性。

三、有利于發展和提升“APEC方式”，推動沿線地區逐步邁向“命運共同體”。1996年，中國領導人在APEC蘇比克峰會上提出“APEC方式”，即承認多樣性（其成員經濟發展水平、社會制度、宗教信仰、文化背景等各方面都很不一樣）；允許漸進性；平等互利，自主自愿和協商一致。當時，人們把這一“APEC方式”稱之為“APEC的靈魂”和支柱。APEC至今仍有強大的生命力，在很大程度上得益于堅持“APEC方式”。“一帶一路”沿線國家和地區存在更大的多樣性，在運作過程中，更需要注意因地制宜,注意與不同的利益訴求和項目“對接”（如與俄羅斯的歐亞經濟聯盟的“對接”，與蒙古國鐵路寬軌與窄軌問題的解決等），堅持“共商、共建、共享”六字方針。同時，還要非常注意相關國家人民的福祉、環保和宗教信仰等問題。

圖/CFP

四、堅持奉行習近平主席提出的“義利觀”。在和平發展道路上，以及在基礎設施建設方面，中國先走了一步，綜合國力相對提高了很多。在互聯互通和具體項目運作過程中，中國義不容辭，一定要執行互利原則，有時候要扶助弱小，“多予少取”，決不能“只取不予”，更不能損人利己，巧取豪奪。

五、有著重要的支撐和保證。推行“一帶一路”愿景，離不開資金和融資。中國設立“絲綢之路基金”，顯然是對“一帶一路”的有力支撐。亞投行和金磚開發銀行也是兩大支柱，有利于融資；在一定意義上，也有助于“倒逼”現有國際金融體系的改革，從而以某種方式在今后參與“一帶一路”活動。中國“一帶一路”的愿景，既不排斥、也不針對任何國家或地區，個別老牌發達國家不必神經緊張，用冷戰思維觀察和看待新事物。“一帶一路”并非是什么苦酒，而是可口的茅臺和威士忌。如不信，不妨來嘗一嘗。

“一帶一路”目前可以說是魅力四射，任重道遠。但新生事物的發展不可能完全一帆風順，不可能沒有風浪和險阻。路漫漫其修遠兮，“一帶一路”任重道遠，也需要“上下而求索”。當前，特別需要注意的：一是警惕和防止恐怖主義和分裂主義的破壞；二是警惕心懷不滿和敵對勢力的干擾和破壞 ；三是防止右翼媒體的“離間計”，把“茶杯里的風波”當成大風大浪。某些相關國家，由于內部政治斗爭和矛盾，可能暫時影響與我們的合作項目，我們無需大驚小怪，以為“大事不好”了，影響判斷。人家挑撥離間，我們千萬不要對號入座，一定要有戰略自信和定力。

It is clearly known that the “Silk Road”has great historical significance and influence.This makes invaluable contribution to the exchange of civilization and ideas between eastern and western countries,as well as economic cooperation and development,which has won praises around the world till now.

The “One Belt and One Road”initiative that China has put forward currently is a result not only of historical heritage but also of creative development.It is not an expedient,hot-headed or strange whim.It is a top-level design based on careful consideration,sufficient estimation and analysis of times trend and international situation,and it is of profound practical significance.

I.strategically,it conforms to the demand of the times.Since the end of the cold war,peace,development and win-win cooperation have become irresistible world trends.With the rapid development of economic globalization,FTAs in various forms and sizes have mushroomed,calling strong connectivitys as well as the liberalization and facilitation of trade investment (APEC has been declaring to be “Gelivable”in this respect in recent years).It is one of China’s visions towards the “One Belt and One Road”.

II.It strives to practice the Chinese traditional values in terms of the policy behavior.As the President of China Xi Jinping said,one swallow doesn’t make a summer.China’s vision of the “One Belt and One Road”initiative will embody a new era partnership of equality and mutual benefit.China never engages in hegemony or interference in internal affairs of other countries,nor imposes on them.It respects cultural diversity and system,takes complementary advantages and seeks for common development and “blossomy garden”,so as to lay a new ground for a fairer and a more just world order.Some people say that the “One Belt and One Road”is China’s “Marshall Plan”,which is obviously inconsistent with the facts,because there is no comparison between them in terms of strategic goal or the code of conduct.

III.It is conducive to the development and promotion of the “APEC mode”,creating a regional impetus to gradual transformation into a “Community of Destiny”.In 1996,Chinese leaders in Subic Summit during the APEC proposed the “APEC mode”which acknowledged diversity (as there are great differences in economic development,social system,religious belief and cultural context among members).We allow progressiveness and keep equality and mutual benefits,voluntarism and consensus all the way.At that time,people regarded the mode as the soul and pillar of APEC.The strong vitality of APEC,to a large degree,depends on the persistence of the “APEC mode”.Due to the greater diversities in countries and regions along the “One Belt and One Road”,it is required to pay more attention,in the operation,to adopt measures suiting local conditions and accommodate disparate needs and interests as well as projects,such as the docking with Eurasian Economic Union in Russia and the solution of broad and narrow rails of Inner Mongolian railways.We must adhere to the sixword policy: consult together,build together and share together.Meanwhile,we should take into consideration the welfare,environmental protection and religious beliefs of people and countries concerned.

Ⅳ.We adhere to the “righteousness and benefit outlook”put forward by President Xi Jinping.China takes an earlier step on the road to peaceful development and in the area of infrastructure construction,and as a result its comprehensive national strength has witnessed a substantial increase.In the operating process of connectivity and interworking and specific project,China is duty-bound to implement the principle of mutual benefit and help the weak countries sometimes.China should pursue the policy of giving more and taking less.She will never take without give,rapping and rending to harm others to benefit itself.

Ⅴ.We have impor tant suppor t and guarantee.Without funding and financing,we can’t promote the vision of the “One Belt and One Road”.The setup of the “Silk Road Fund”is obviously a strong support for the “One Belt and One Road”initiative.The AIIB and the BRICS Development Bank are two pillars for financing.In a sense,they can also help to “force”the reform of the existing international financial system,so that it can participate in the activities of the “One Belt and One Road”in the future.The vision of the “One Belt and One Road”neither rejects nor aims at any country or region.Several old developed countries don’t have to be nervous with cold war mentality to observe and treat new things.The “One Belt and One Road”is not bitter wine,but delicious Moutai and Whiskey.If you don’t believe,you might as well have a taste.

The “One Belt and One Road”initiative is charming at present,but it also has a long way to go.The development of new things can’t be entirely smooth with no storms and obstacles.With a long way,the “One Belt and One Road”should shoulder heavy responsibilities and try to find a way of healthy development.At present,we should pay special attention to the following three things.First,we should be alert and prevent the destruction of terrorism and separatism.Second,we should be alert to the interference and damage made by disgruntled and hostile forces.Third,we should prevent the right-wing press from using the strategy of sowing discord and regarding a bit of a storm in a teacup as strong wind and big waves.Some related countries,due to its internal political struggle and conflicts,may temporarily affect cooperation projects with us;however,we don’t need to make a fuss as if a disaster is imminent,which can influence our judges.If somebody else makes mischief,we should not fall into the trap but have strategic confidence and composure.