國(guó)際大腕重慶論道：服務(wù)貿(mào)易將成中國(guó)第一大產(chǎn)業(yè)

□ 文、圖/見(jiàn)習(xí)記者 蔣正

作為中國(guó)目前GDP增長(zhǎng)最快最有活力的城市，中國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)重心轉(zhuǎn)移服務(wù)業(yè)的潮流對(duì)重慶來(lái)說(shuō)，既是趨勢(shì)，也是機(jī)遇。重慶知識(shí)流程外包業(yè)務(wù)占離岸服務(wù)外包執(zhí)行總額約47%，高于全國(guó)平均水平18個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，標(biāo)志著重慶服務(wù)外包產(chǎn)業(yè)正向現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)的高端發(fā)展。今后重慶進(jìn)一步成長(zhǎng)為中國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)增長(zhǎng)高地，中國(guó)服務(wù)貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口高地，皆需抓住產(chǎn)業(yè)重心轉(zhuǎn)移服務(wù)業(yè)的機(jī)會(huì)。

9月22-23日，第六屆國(guó)際服務(wù)貿(mào)易(重慶)高峰會(huì)在重慶南坪國(guó)際會(huì)展中心召開(kāi)。本屆高峰會(huì)以“發(fā)展服務(wù)貿(mào)易,轉(zhuǎn)變發(fā)展方式”為主題，緊扣當(dāng)前國(guó)際服務(wù)貿(mào)易領(lǐng)域新熱點(diǎn)、新趨勢(shì)，結(jié)合重慶服務(wù)貿(mào)易發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，探討重慶服務(wù)貿(mào)易發(fā)展機(jī)遇。會(huì)議舉辦主旨論壇，400余名來(lái)自美國(guó)、英國(guó)、印度、新加坡、澳大利亞等40多個(gè)國(guó)家和地區(qū)的跨國(guó)公司高層、有關(guān)商協(xié)會(huì)負(fù)責(zé)人，以及全國(guó)服務(wù)外包示范城市代表及我市有關(guān)部門(mén)負(fù)責(zé)人參加。重慶市市長(zhǎng)黃奇帆做了開(kāi)場(chǎng)發(fā)言，副市長(zhǎng)劉強(qiáng)主持會(huì)議，中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所所長(zhǎng)裴長(zhǎng)洪、畢馬威亞太區(qū)總裁馮柏文、太平洋電信首席執(zhí)行官卡爾·格里夫納等發(fā)表了講話(huà)。

中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所所長(zhǎng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家裴長(zhǎng)洪認(rèn)為，服務(wù)貿(mào)易將成為中國(guó)的第一大產(chǎn)業(yè)。他首先從供需關(guān)系方面解釋了目前我國(guó)的外需減少，貨物貿(mào)易出口困難的局面。這方面雖然重慶的進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于全國(guó)平均水平，但是不能說(shuō)重慶是例外。接著他說(shuō)，服務(wù)貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口呈兩位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)，國(guó)際分工需求是在服務(wù)貿(mào)易方面。服務(wù)貿(mào)易比貨物貿(mào)易更有發(fā)展前景。然后他分析了我國(guó)在服務(wù)貿(mào)易上的薄弱，即服務(wù)貿(mào)易大概每年一千多億美元的逆差。他提出我國(guó)發(fā)展服務(wù)貿(mào)易首先就要發(fā)展服務(wù)業(yè)，提高我國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。而且，這種競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力首先要在國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)培養(yǎng)，而且是原有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力（如廉價(jià)勞動(dòng)力）衰弱了，新的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力（如現(xiàn)代物流）要發(fā)展起來(lái)。他列舉了一個(gè)事實(shí)：從去年開(kāi)始，中國(guó)的服務(wù)業(yè)占GDP的比重去年首次變成了和第二產(chǎn)業(yè)基本上持平。今年上半年首次超過(guò)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)，這就說(shuō)明中國(guó)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)在發(fā)生變化。由此他斷言，服務(wù)業(yè)將成為中國(guó)的第一大產(chǎn)業(yè)。服務(wù)業(yè)是服務(wù)貿(mào)易的發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)，服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展能促進(jìn)我國(guó)在國(guó)際服務(wù)貿(mào)易上的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的提高。為發(fā)展服務(wù)貿(mào)易，他還提出要“兩個(gè)抓”，抓對(duì)外開(kāi)放，抓“兩帶一路”。

依裴長(zhǎng)洪所言，服務(wù)業(yè)將成為中國(guó)的第一大產(chǎn)業(yè)，服務(wù)貿(mào)易是擴(kuò)大出口的潛力股。產(chǎn)業(yè)重心轉(zhuǎn)移服務(wù)業(yè)這一潮流應(yīng)該也是重慶所需要遵循的。重慶目前貨物貿(mào)易發(fā)展勢(shì)頭正猛，讓人調(diào)轉(zhuǎn)槍頭發(fā)展服務(wù)貿(mào)易是否是為貨物貿(mào)易發(fā)展?jié)娎渌颗衢L(zhǎng)洪接下來(lái)說(shuō)的話(huà)消解了筆者的疑惑：總的來(lái)看中國(guó)的貿(mào)易仍然是順差，我們貨物貿(mào)易仍然保持比較大的順差，所以我們要利用這樣好的機(jī)遇，加快發(fā)展服務(wù)貿(mào)易，使服務(wù)貿(mào)易的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力能夠提高。因此在一段時(shí)間之內(nèi)，貨物貿(mào)易的順差和服務(wù)貿(mào)易的逆差應(yīng)該是一個(gè)常態(tài)。所以貨物貿(mào)易也是必須堅(jiān)持不動(dòng)搖發(fā)展的，它還是彌補(bǔ)我國(guó)服務(wù)貿(mào)易逆差的保障。重慶經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展有活力，貨物貿(mào)易兩位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)，在保證了貿(mào)易順差的同時(shí)，更應(yīng)該逐浪在這股服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展潮流上。重慶的對(duì)外開(kāi)放政策優(yōu)越，又與“兩帶一路”戰(zhàn)略直接掛鉤，發(fā)展國(guó)際服務(wù)貿(mào)易又有良好的機(jī)遇。

重慶的對(duì)外開(kāi)放政策優(yōu)越，又與“兩帶一路”戰(zhàn)略直接掛鉤，發(fā)展國(guó)際服務(wù)貿(mào)易又有良好的機(jī)遇。

裴長(zhǎng)洪是從貨物貿(mào)易和服務(wù)貿(mào)易的出口的方向來(lái)談的，而接下來(lái)的畢馬威亞太區(qū)總裁馮栢文卻是從對(duì)外投資的方向來(lái)談的，他的觀點(diǎn)也觸及產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)和提高國(guó)際貿(mào)易競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的問(wèn)題。雖然通常提到提高服務(wù)業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，我們更多地想到的是引進(jìn)技術(shù)、引進(jìn)經(jīng)驗(yàn)，用對(duì)外投資來(lái)發(fā)展服務(wù)業(yè)和服務(wù)貿(mào)易對(duì)我們來(lái)說(shuō)算是另辟蹊徑，且聽(tīng)他這位澳大利亞人用流利的普通話(huà)在講臺(tái)上滔滔不絕地發(fā)言。

馮柏文的觀點(diǎn)是，中國(guó)已經(jīng)步入轉(zhuǎn)折期，產(chǎn)業(yè)面臨轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)，而產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)的一個(gè)重要途徑就是利用海外資源。而利用海外資源，中國(guó)的業(yè)務(wù)模式更多的是國(guó)際承包和對(duì)外投資相結(jié)合，同時(shí)以工程承包換資源的項(xiàng)目會(huì)越來(lái)越多。這是投資行為擴(kuò)大服務(wù)貿(mào)易的例子。在一些非傳統(tǒng)的行業(yè)內(nèi)，中國(guó)企業(yè)的對(duì)外投資呈現(xiàn)出較快的增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)，這其中就有服務(wù)業(yè)的投資。通過(guò)這些海外投資，中國(guó)獲取先進(jìn)的技術(shù)和經(jīng)驗(yàn)，實(shí)現(xiàn)從勞動(dòng)力密集產(chǎn)業(yè)，低端產(chǎn)業(yè)向具有新技術(shù)、新材料、新能源特征的高端產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)變的目標(biāo)。這也有助于中國(guó)提高服務(wù)貿(mào)易競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，通過(guò)投資走出去。因而，“中國(guó)跨國(guó)企業(yè)，為獲取各種資源和能力而進(jìn)行的對(duì)外投資活動(dòng)，將在促進(jìn)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型過(guò)程中發(fā)揮重要作用。”

根據(jù)商務(wù)部發(fā)布信息，2012年前8個(gè)月，我國(guó)對(duì)外投資資金流向商務(wù)服務(wù)業(yè)的占比是56.8%，2013年前11個(gè)月占比是34.1%。我國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)外投資已經(jīng)受到如此青睞，重慶亦可借投資促產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移和升級(jí)。

International big shots share insights in Chongqing Service trade will become China’s largest industry

For Chongqing, a city with the fastest GDP growth and the utmost vitality, the shifting of China’s industrial highlight to the service industry is both a trend and an opportunity. The city’s business volume of knowledge process outsourcing(KPO)takes up 47% of its total off-shore service outsourcing volume, 18% higher than the national average level, showing the escalation of Chongqing’s outsourcing industry into the high tiers of the modern service industry. In the future, in order to become a highland of China’s service industry and an import and export highland of service trade, Chongqing needs to seize the opportunity of such a shift.

On September 22 and 23, the 6th International Service Trade(Chongqing)Summit was held in Chongqing International Convention and Exhibition Center in Nanping. Titled “Developing Service trade and Transforming the Development Mode”, this summit explores the business opportunities in Chongqing’s service trade by centering on new heated topics and new trends in international service trade area in combination of the status quo of the industry. The keynote forum of this summit was attended by senior managers of transnational enterprises and heads of relevant chambers of commerce and trade associations from 40 countries and regions, including the US, Britain, India, Singapore and Australia, and also by persons in charge from national service outsourcing model cities and relevant authorities in Chongqing. Mayor Huang Qifan delivered an opening speech during the summit presided by deputy mayor Liu Qiang. Pei Changhong, director of Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Science, Vaughn Barber, Asia-Pacific President of KPMG and Carl Grivner, CEO of Pacnet also delivered the speeches.

Pei Changhong, economist and president of Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Science, believed that the service industry will become China’s largest industry. He f i rst explained that the decrease of China’s external demand causes difficulties in commodity export in terms of demand and supply. Though Chongqing’s import and export growth is higher than China’s average level, the city is not remarkably better than others in terms of export. He later pointed out that the import and export of service trade increases by double digits, and the demand of international division of labor lies in the service trade, which shows that the service trade has greater potentials than the commodity trade. He then proceeded to analyze our current weakness in service trade, namely over 100 billion US dollars of trade deficit each year. To develop service trade, the first step is to promote the service industry and increase the industrial competitiveness. Such competitiveness shall be fostered inside China through reducing the original competitiveness(including cheap labor)and enhancing new competitiveness(including modern logistics). An example cited by him goes as follows: since last year, China’s service industry took the same proportion in GDP as the secondary industry, and in the first half of this year, it surpassed the latter. These facts ref l ect the changes in the country’s industrial structure. Judging from these aspects, he believed that the service industry will become the largest industry in China. The service industry is the foundation for the service trade, whose development can improve our competitiveness in international service trade. He also pointed out that we shall ramp up both opening-up and “Two Belts, One Road”.

According to Pei Changhong, the service industry will become China’s largest industry and thus the service trade has the potential to expand export. Chongqing should follow the trend of the shifting of industrial highlight to the service industry. The city’s commodity trade currently has a strong momentum, but will it be dampened if developing the service trade is encouraged? Pei’s further explanation put off such doubt. Overall speaking, China has a trade surplus and a large commodity trade surplus in particular, so we can take the opportunity to promote the service trade and improve its competitiveness. Within a certain period, there will be consistent surplus in commodity trade and def i cit in service trade. We shall adhere to developing the commodity trade, as it supplements the def i cit in the service trade. With vigorous economic growth and a double-digit growth of commodity trade, Chongqing shall also promote its service industry while it ensures its trade surplus. With the superior supporting policies of openingup and its strategy of “Two Belts, One Road”, the city is endowed with favorable opportunities in developing the international service trade.

Pei based his analysis on the export of commodity trade and service trade. While Vaughn Barber, Asia-Pacific President of KPMG, put forward his opinions in terms of outbound investment. He also addressed industrial upgrading and improving competitiveness in international trade. Speaking of a higher competitiveness in the service industry, we are more likely to think of bringing in technology and experiences. But developing the service industry and the service trade by means of outbound investment is a new way. Let us hear out this Australian gentleman’s enthusiastic speech in f l uent Chinese.

According to Barber, China has stepped into the turning point when industries are faced with transformation and upgrading, mostly through exploring foreign resources. With regard to exploring foreign resources, China combines international contracting with outbound investment, and there will be more projects exchanging project contracting for resources. These are examples of how investment expands service trade. Investment by Chinese enterprises in some non-traditional industries abroad exhibits a quick growth, and the service industry is one of them. Such outbound investment enables China to obtain advanced technologies and experiences so as to achieve the goal of transforming labor-intensive and low-end industries into highend industries featured by new technology, new material and new energy. Besides, such investment can help improving China’s competitiveness in the service trade and push the country to go global. Therefore, “China’s transnational enterprises will play a very important role in its domestic economic transformation by outbound investment intending to acquire resources and capabilities.”

According to statistics released by Ministry of Commerce, over the first 8 months of 2012, 56.8% of total capital invested abroad went to the business service industry. Over the first 11 months of 2013, this percentage stood at 34.1%. This shows that the outbound investment in service industry has drawn much attention. Chongqing can also promote industrial shift and upgrading by means of outbound investment.