After the Smoke Has Faded

By NI YANSHUO

After the Smoke Has Faded

By NI YANSHUO

Libya’s rebels struggle to remain united as factions vie for power

When NATO jet fighters dropped the first bomb over Tripoli on March 19, no one expected Libyan strongman Muammar Gaddaf to doggedly resist a combined force of rebel militia and some of the world’s most advanced air munitions for more than five months. Yet the combined barrage eventually took its toll and the Gaddaf era has ended.

The fluid situation in Libya changed seemingly overnight. On August 21, the rebels entered Tripoli and announced that the whole of the city was under their control except Gaddaf’s Bab al-Aziziya stronghold. On August 22, Libyan rebel chief Mustafa Abdel Jalil announced “the end of the fourdecade Gaddaf era,” at a news conference in Benghazi, eastern Libya. The Bab al-Aziziya compound fell to the rebels a day later, but Gaddaf’s whereabouts remain unknown.

“The result shows that Gaddafi was previously exaggerating his strength and his troops were not as loyal to him as he previously said,” Zhang Bo, a military expert, toldThe Beijing News.

A power vacuum

The capture of Tripoli brings an end to Gaddaf’s 42-year rule over Libya, but not an end to the complicated dynamics of the North African country. “I, and actually the whole international community, question the capacity of the new government, which will be established after Gaddaf, of ruling the country,” Xu Weizhong, Deputy Director of the Institute of West Asian and African Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, toldBeijing Review. “It requires totally different capacities to overthrow an old regime and to build a new one.”

The National Transitional Council (NTC) in Benghazi is a temporary organization established by the rebels to rule the country after Gaddafi steps down. More than 30 foreign governments now recognize this council, including that of the United States and the United Kingdom. On August 22, the Libyan Embassy in China replaced Libya’s green fag with the rebel’s red, black and green fag.

According to Xu, after ousting the Gaddaf regime, the NTC has to rapidly fll the power vacuum to rule the country. “But this is a great challenge for the rebels who have no experience of ruling a country,” Xu added.

Despite recognition from many foreign governments, rebel soldiers seem to have less confdence in the NTC. According to a report by UK-based newspaperThe Independenton August 22, the rebel fghters in Misrata, who fought so long to defend their city, said that they have no intention of obeying orders from the NTC.

Division in the ranks

This lack of confdence in the NTC could very possibly divide the country. “Once taking power, the rebels still face numerous challenges in ruling the country in the post-Gaddaf era,” said Zhang Zhongxiang, Deputy Director of the Center for West Asian and African Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies. He toldBeijingReviewthat if they cannot properly and effectively deal with the remnants of Gaddaf’s followers and officials, the country is very likely to descend into chaos, similar to the anarchy in Somalia.

“The differences among factions inside the rebel camp will be a huge problem after they seize power,” said Xu.

According to him, the rebellion consists of several factions including radical Islamic forces, those who insist on Westernization, and local Arabian forces. In the fght to topple Gaddaf they have formed a united front, but once power changes hands, their differences will emerge, said Xu.

The rebels are aware of this. One of the rebel leaders, Husam Najjair told Reuters he is worried about the possibility of rebels turning on each other.

“The frst thing my brigade will do is to set up checkpoints to disarm everyone, including other rebel groups, because otherwise it will be a bloodbath,” he said. “All the rebel groups will want to control Tripoli. Order will be needed.”

“Despite any measures the rebels may take, conflict among the rebels themselves will be a great issue for post-Gaddaf Libya,”said Xu.

National reconciliation

“In the short term, what the rebels need to do when controlling the country is to effectively handle problems related to different tribes, which are likely to arise in the aftermath,” said Zhang.

He noted that the rebels actually defeated Gaddafi with the support of the West and thus, it is still questionable whether or not the tribes in the country recognize the legitimacy of any new government.

Libya has more than 140 tribes of different sizes, which are the basis of Libyan politics. During the four decades of Gaddafi rule, he ruled the country by aligning his tribe with other large tribes. “When Gaddaf steps down and the new government takes over power, the interests of different tribes are bound to surface. This will require the new government to be careful in dealing with Gaddaf’s followers and offcials from the Gaddaf regime, as well as Gaddaf’s mercenary soldiers, who are mainly from the surrounding countries like Chad and Mali,” said Zhang.

According to Zhang, the best way is to seek reconciliation after disarming.“Otherwise, the situation in Libya will be worse than it is now, or even be more divided,” he said.

Xu viewed the issue from another angle.“To keep the country stable during the transitional period, it makes sense for the new government to use the officials from the Gaddafi government because they have the knowledge and experience of how to rule the country,” he said. “This experience is precisely what the new government will lack.”He added that an inclusive government is needed for the transitional period in Libya, but establishing it will be a major challenge.

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Economic reconstruction

Economic reconstruction is another major factor for the new government, since the five-month war has destroyed Libya’s economy and infrastructure. Though rich in oil, Xu believes that it will take two or more years for the country to recover its economic level to the pre-war period. “Definitely the Western countries will interfere in resource production of Libya. That’s why they have helped the rebels topple Gaddafi,” said Zhang, adding that the country also needs support from the West for its long-term economic development.

Zhang said although Libya relies on the West for its resource development, it also needs other countries like China in its economic recovery, especially in infrastructure construction. “China has huge foreign exchange reserves and abundant experience in economic reconstruction, which can help the war-torn country,” said Zhang.

Just before the war broke out in March, most Chinese companies stopped their projects in Libya and returned to China. But, according to Wang Qimin, a counselor of the Chinese ad hoc working group in Benghazi, some Chinese companies such as ZTE and Huawei, two of China’s leading information and communications technology solutions providers, have returned to Benghazi, which is relatively calm, to resume their previous work.

In an interview with Xinhua News Agency on August 17, NTC Vice President Abdel-Hafidh Ghoga said that the NTC would respect all deals and contracts the Muammar Gaddaf Government had signed with Chinese companies.

“The NTC welcomes Chinese enterprises back to the country to complete existing projects,” he said.

“The differences among factions inside the rebel camp will be a huge problem after they seize power.”

—Xu Weizhong, Institute of West Asian and African Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations