奧巴馬總統面臨挑戰

民主黨總統候選人奧巴馬創造了歷史，然而他卻沒有太多時間慶祝，因為美國經濟目前面臨著自羅斯福時期以來最艱難的局面。除了要把美國從1929年經濟大蕭條以來最糟糕的經濟環境中拯救出來之外，奧巴馬還要處理伊拉克、阿富汗兩場戰爭的爛攤子。

經濟學家們普遍認為，美國經濟已步入衰退，到今年1月份，這種衰退可能更加惡化。2009年1月20日正式走馬上任的奧巴馬，必須要大干一場了。

The whole of America is pondering a single issue: Is this another Great Depression? The answer， of course， is No. Well， not yet.

Most 1)pundits agree that an improved understanding of macro-economic management will prevent the US from suffering a repeat of the 1930s， when GDP fell by 19 per cent， 5，000 banks failed and unemployment hit 25 per cent. Faith in the financial authorities， however， is tempered by an unavoidable question: if they know so much， why was the 2)sub-prime mortgages drama allowed to develop into a nationwide crisis?

America is 3)disinclined to 4)wallow in pessimism. Its power and influence were built on a belief， woven into the nation’s DNA， that success is the natural order for those living under the 5)stars and stripes.

Yet， even here in 6)glitzy Miami， the foundations of confidence are being washed away by a wave of bad facts. Florida’s housing market is 7)under water. Weekend property supplements contained several advertisements for new homes at “below builder’s cost”. Prices of some 8)fancy apartments have been 9)slashed from $500，000 to $299，000. In America’s 20 largest cities， average house prices are down by 16.6 per cent. Households

have lost $5 trillion of wealth in the crash. More than seven million Americans are

expected to 10)default on their payments by the end of 2010. About four million of these will be forced to give up their homes.

When it comes to the economy， George Bush’s approval ratings are so low， support extends barely beyond blood relatives and staffers. His successor’s toughest job will be knowing where to start.

The model of globalisation that depends on the American consumer as a shopper of last resort is finished. Household debt is now $13.9 trillion， equal almost exactly to the size of the US economy. Between 2000 and 2007， America’s trade deficit 11)ballooned from $380 billion to $700 billion， as the country sucked in imports with borrowed money.

In the same period， inflation-adjusted median incomes of what 12)pollsters call “prime working-age families” (35--44-year olds) fell from $69，000 to $67，000. The illusion of rising prosperity was maintained by stock market profits， bigger mortgages and a wild 13)binge on credit cards. But as the cash flow from each of these stopped， America ran into trouble.

Consumer spending， which accounts for 70 per cent of the US economy， has 14)dipped for the first time in 17 years. About 25 million workers are employed in retail. Few can be certain their jobs are safe.

One of the worst affected sectors is car dealerships， with 700 expected to close this year， destroying more than 35，000 jobs. Sales of motor vehicles have fallen every month in the past 12 and are down to the lowest level for more than 25 years.

Analysts calculate that， after 15)allowing for population growth， sales are where they were just after the war.

Motor manufacturing by domestic companies is close to collapse. General Motors is burning through $1 billion of cash a month， and is lobbying furiously for state aid. Its October sales were down by 45.1 per cent on the same month the year before last.

16)Chrysler’s were 34.9 per cent lower. They have been discussing a 17)merger that could close half of Chrysler’s 14 plants and eliminate all but seven of its 26 models. If a deal were forged， 30，000 jobs would be in 18)jeopardy. Without an agreement， however， there will have to be 100，000-plus redundancies.

Unemployment in Detroit is already 8.9 per cent， compared with a national average of 6.1 per cent. Motown is fast becoming Slowtown， an industrial disaster zone.

The 19)crunch is triggering a surge in unpaid bills. 20)Delinquent credit-card debt has risen to 4.9 per cent. Banks， still reeling from the 21)dodgy mortgage 22)debacle， face the prospect of 23)writing off many billions more.

Who would have thought that Bill Clinton’s regime would be held up as a model of 24)fiscal responsibility? Between 1998 and 2000， it accumulated a federal surplus of $431 billion. The Bush term is ending with a 25)post 26)bailout budget deficit approaching $1 trillion.

As Time magazine concludes: “America is drowning in debt.

Getting 27)square again will be painful.” Don’t be fooled by the dollar’s rise， in today’s troubled world it is seen merely as the best house in a bad neighbourhood. As for the recent upturn in US share prices， Harvard economics professor Kenneth Rogoff said: “Don’t look at the stock market. Look at the credit market.”

By any conventional measure， the US economy under Bush has been a fool’s paradise: a place where consumers believed they could spend more than they were earning，

without a final 28)day of reckoning. That game is over. Barack Obama’s challenge will be to restore traditional American values， replacing speculation with enterprise， and 29)profligacy with thrift.

Change is long 30)overdue.

全美國都在思索一個問題：這又是一次經濟大蕭條嗎？答案當然是否定的，至少是“暫時還沒有”。

絕大多數學者都認為加強宏觀經濟管理可以防止美國重蹈上世紀30年代經濟大蕭條的覆轍。當時美國國內生產總值下降19%，5000家銀行破產，失業率高達25%。然而，民眾對財經界權威的信任也難免遭遇尷尬：如果他們早就知道這么多，為何會讓次級抵押貸款危機演變成今天這場全國性的危機呢？

美國人向來拒絕悲觀消極。美國的權力和世界影響源于一個與生俱來的信念——成功是自然而然地屬于那些生活在星條旗下的人們的。這個信念就像植入了這個民族的DNA一樣穩固且不容置疑。

然而現在，哪怕是在陽光燦爛的邁阿密，這種信念的根基正被一連串負面的事實沖垮。佛羅里達的房地產市場可謂水深火熱。周末房地產增刊中出現好幾條以“低于房屋造價”為噱頭的新屋廣告。有些精美公寓的價格已經從50萬美元狂跌至29.9萬美元。全美的20個大城市中，平均房價已經下跌16.6%。……