糧荒時代的來臨

如果說美國的次貸危機可能拖慢全球經濟發展的步伐，那另一種危機已經切切實實地在全世界范圍內引發了大規模的災難性動蕩。這里所說的就是全球糧食短缺和食品價格飚升引致的糧食危機。危機讓發達國家也有些難以招架，但它的破壞力還是真正體現在貧困國家。

為什么會出現糧食危機？危機給人類帶來的災難性打擊有哪些？我們該如何攜手應對？本文把答案一一道來。

In our television age， the mention of a food crisis brings to mind the 1)bloated bellies of starving children. We think of droughts， crop failure， conflicts and the 2)tub-thumping of Bono and Bob Geldof. But now we have a very different sort of food crisis， one that last week for the first time brought food 3)rationing to America when the supermarket giant Wal-Mart restricted customers to four bags of rice per visit.

Make no mistake， the current food crisis has the capacity to transform global politics. There is nothing more fundamental than food.

In Britain， rising grain prices have already undermined the profitability of poultry and livestock farms. Good-quality food will become the preserve of the well-off， while those on lower incomes will have to 4)make do with what they can afford. The

5)chasm between rich and poor will widen further. In the developing world， where hundreds of millions are already struggling to 6)get by， the food crisis threatens to undo all the advances of the past two decades. 7)Untold millions could be forced if not into starvation， then into hunger， malnutrition and misery. Conflict and global instability will

increase. If you thought the world was unstable now， we could soon be looking back on this as a golden age of 8)tranquility.

So serious is the situation that British Prime Minister Gordon Brown declared that the food crisis threatened “to 9)roll back progress made in recent years to lift millions of people out of poverty.” Millions more were promised in Third World aid. But Western intervention on current lines is likely to be 10)futile when the causes of the crisis are complex， global， and likely to be permanent.

Indeed， using the simplistic logic of the Western aid industry， there should be no problem at all.

Despite poor harvests in drought-stricken Australia， last year’s global grain crop broke all records. At 2.3 billion tons， it beat the previous year’s total by almost 5 per cent.

So why the crisis? It is the simple fact that consumption has 11)outstripped even this record harvest. By the simple laws of supply and demand， prices have gone through the roof. The demand has been fuelled by an ever more populous and prosperous developing world.

And this is bringing a 12)seismic change 13)analogous to the oil shocks of the Seventies or the 19th Century population shift from the countryside to towns. Food prices will always 14)fluctuate with global markets， but the era of food so cheap that we in the West never even had to think about it has gone 15)for good.

In simple terms， the world population doubled between 1961 and 1986 and is still growing at the rate of 75 million people a year. A further factor is the rising 16)affluence of the emergent middle classes in China and India and the associated increase in the demand for meat， though this is， as yet， a relatively minor effect.

So what have we in the West done about it?

We have made matters worse by 17)instigating a completely artificial rush to convert food into biofuel to drive our cars， a policy initially driven by a US desire to reduce its energy dependence on 18)volatile Middle East states. Now the EU has joined in， using a so-called green agenda to promote biofuels to try to 19)mitigate carbon emissions and control global warming. Already， 100 million tons of food a year is being diverted to make biofuel.

And in the week when Mr. Brown convened his crisis meeting， a new EU target came into force—2.5 per cent of petrol and diesel should be replaced by biofuel. This is set to rise to 10

percent by 2020， adding massively to the pressure on food production.

Another well-meaning EU initiative wrapped in “green” clothing is the ban on cheap， effective 20)pesticide. More than half of the global harvest is lost to pests and plant disease， yet EU legislation has 21)outlawed the majority of the pesticides on the market. New laws could wipe out 95 percent of the remaining 250 or so and make the development of new products prohibitively expensive. This not an academic problem.

The Eighties ban on DDT which even the World Health Organization now admits was misplaced has cost Africa up to pound;50 billion in lost production and resulted in the deaths of 30

million people.

But then Western politicians have always been driven more by a need to announce grand new initiatives than by logic. Third World aid is almost always counter-productive in the long run. It serves only to fuel corruption， 22)prop up 23)despotic regimes and undermine fragile

local economies. Meanwhile， import

24)tariffs and trade barriers prevent poor farmers getting full market prices. And they also penalize consumers， who have to pay over the odds for staple foodstuffs.

If we are to tackle this food crisis effectively， we in the West have to rethink how we help the 840 million people said to be in 25)chronic hunger. As well as liberalizing trade， we need to encourage increased agricultural productivity. Only farmers can solve the global food crisis， and to help them achieve this we need to make them more efficient.

It has already happened here. Western agriculture has been transformed since the Second World War thanks to mechanization， fertilizers， pesticides and high-yield seed. Now Third World farmers need to be given access to modern growing techniques. World food markets can be stabilized. But the situation is urgent.

Poverty-stricken nations need the 26)rule of law， not the pity of rich neighbours in the West. We need to be tough. Unless we act now it is only a matter of time before we see empty supermarkets and real shortages of food， even in the developed world.

在當今的電視時代，只要一提起“糧食危機”就會讓我們想到挨餓的孩子們那腫脹的肚皮。我們還會想到旱災、糧食歉收、沖突以及強烈呼吁西方提升對非洲援助的歌手波諾和鮑勃·吉爾道夫。然而現在，我們面臨的是另一種截然不同的糧食危機。上星期在美國，超市巨子沃爾瑪破天荒地第一次對消費者限量供應大米，消費者每人每次購買的大米不能超過四袋。

不是開玩笑，目前的糧食危機足以扭轉全球政治走向。對于人類而言，沒有其他任何東西比糧食更加不可或缺。

在英國，持續飆升的糧價嚴重削減了飼養家禽家畜的農場的利潤。優質糧食成了富人的專屬，而收入低的窮人則只能勉強度日。貧富差距將進一步加大。在發展中國家本來已有數億人掙扎著艱難度日，糧食危機恐怕會把過去二十年取得的點滴進步一筆勾銷。無數人即使不會餓死，也會陷入饑餓，營養不良和極度貧困的困境中。沖突和全球動蕩會加劇。如果你認為眼下的世界動蕩不安，那么以后再回過頭看，很快你就會發現這簡直就是太平盛世。……