未雨綢繆，沙漠王國展望后石油經濟時代

沙特阿拉伯以豐富得驚人的石油資源聞名世界，有“石油王國”、“沙漠超級富國”之稱。沙特也是世界上“寄生性富?！蹦Ｊ阶畹湫偷膰抑弧Ｋ^“寄生性富裕”，指的是這些國家靠出售自然資源獲得別國創造的財富。石油是天然資源，也是暴利資源，以沙特為代表的不少中東國家都走著類似的致富道路。

既然是“寄生性”，沙特的富裕就有它致命的“硬傷”。石油是沙特的立國之本，致富之源。如果到了石油枯竭，或是人類成功找到替代能源的那一天，沙特將何去何從？

慶幸的是，沙特已經感受到了危機，現在已開始發展多元化經濟，試圖實現從“寄生性富?！钡健胺羌纳愿辉！钡霓D型了。

In Medina， Saudi Arabia， clouds of yellow dust 1)swirled in the air as tractors moved back and forth， leveling a huge， 2)barren piece of land dotted with billboards announcing the city that will rise from the sand here. Over the next few years， Saudi officials say this stretch of desert will be transformed into a buzzing 3)hub of scientific research and development， with 4)cutting-edge universities， hospitals and housing for more than 130，000 people attracted by the idea of living in the city where Islam’s 5)prophet Muhammad is buried.

The project， called Knowledge Economic City， represents a first serious step by Saudi Arabia toward building a post-petroleum economy. It is one of six major industrial centers planned to rise over the next 15 years. These cities-6)from-scratch are the most ambitious projects 7)to date launched by a kingdom enriched almost entirely by oil since its 8)disparate regions were unified into a state more than seven decades ago. In beginning to construct an economy to survive the end of its natural resources， the Saudi government is 9)drawing on lessons learned during a previous oil boom when profits were 10)squandered in part by 11)spendthrift princes and short-term planning that emphasized infrastructure over education. “The ruling dynasty is under pressure to show its population that the oil money is being reinvested 12)for the good of the people. The 13)al-Sauds have suffered from the image of the ruling family as corrupt and spending lavishly，” said Rochdi Younsi， an analyst with the Eurasia Group， a consulting firm that provides political risk analysis of countries around the world.

With oil prices peaking above $145 a 14)barrel in recent weeks， the kingdom is 15)reaping an 16)unprecedented 17)windfall from its vast 18)reservoirs of oil， which represent a quarter of the world’s proven reserves. Saudi Arabia reported oil income of $200 billion last year and projects $700 billion in revenue over the next two years. The kingdom earned an average of $43 billion annually throughout the 1990s. But Saudi officials have long feared that too-high oil prices would push the world toward alternative fuels， a concern captured by one former oil minister’s tart reminder that “the Stone Age did not end for lack of stone.”

To meet rising demand， as well as to slow the world’s rush to develop alternative energy sources， Saudi officials have raised oil production by 500，000 barrels a day since May. Though increased production means the Saudi reserves will be 19)depleted faster， the government is using a burst of additional capital to develop an economy it hopes will eventually be 20)untethered from the price of oil.

The new cities are part of a broader effort to diversify the economy away from oil and away from its reliance on the public sector. The cities are intended to develop more of a non-oil economy， well before the oil runs out. Based on economic zones around the world， the cities aim to trade Saudi assets—plentiful and cheap oil and vast open spaces—for foreign 21)expertise and training. Saudi Arabia’s ambitious economic program calls for the kingdom to be among the world’s top 10 economies 22)in terms of ease of doing business by 2010， up from its current rank of 23rd.

Saudi officials said they are working on easing the lifestyle and visa restrictions that have kept foreigners from investing and living in the kingdom. One side effect of that will probably be an easing of rules that ban men and women from mingling in public unless they are close relatives.

“We’re not anymore an isolated island. We realize the challenge today in order for us to be more competitive means more transparency and more gender equality，” said Abdullah Hameedadin， head of the Economic Cities Agency at the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority， the government body overseeing the projects.

An oil 23)bonanza in the 1970s that poured billions of dollars into government coffers turned the kingdom into a rich nation and helped modernize its infrastructure with eight-lane highways， hospitals， malls， universities and 24)desalination plants. Despite the decades of oil wealth， the Saudi education system is ranked as one of the worst worldwide， tens of thousands of university graduates are unemployed， and the country manufactures and produces very little. Saudi Arabia consumes locally only 2 percent of the oil it produces.

Oil accounts for 90 percent of Saudi Arabia’s income. And until oil prices slumped in the 1990s， officials faced little pressure to diver-sify the economy. “This is what some people call ‘the curse of oil.’ You don’t need to train people， you don’t need to work so hard，” said Kinninmont， the economist. Change has come about “partly because of the experience of the ’90s，” she said. “Lots of political and economic problems still haunt the policymakers.”

When the six cities are complete， about 2020， they will house nearly 5 million people and provide more than 1 million jobs， planners say. The cities provide regional balance by creating jobs and industries in some of the most underdeveloped regions and cities in the kingdom. One of the cities is expected to become a center for heavy industry， and several Chinese firms have already signed up to start 25)aluminum 26)smelters there， according to Saudi officials.

在沙特阿拉伯的麥地那，拖拉機來回開動，卷起漫天飛舞的黃色塵土，把這片廣袤貧瘠、戶外廣告牌隨處可見的土地夷平——這一切表明，一座城市將在這片沙地拔地而起。沙特政府官員稱，在未來幾年內，這片沙漠將變成興旺的科研開發樞紐中心，頂級學府以及設備完善的醫院和樓宇將匯聚此地，吸引超過13萬人前來定居，生活在這個伊斯蘭教先知穆罕默德安息之地的城市。

這個名為“知識經濟城市”的計劃是沙特阿拉伯邁出的構建后石油經濟的關鍵第一步。這是未來15年中新崛起的六個主要工業中心之一。這些從零建起的城市是迄今為止沙特阿拉伯啟動的最具野心的項目。這個七十多年前由不同區域統一而成的國家幾乎完全是靠石油致富的。為了構建天然資源枯竭后的后石油時代經濟，沙特政府吸取前車之鑒，不重蹈歷史覆轍——當年石油資源極其豐富之時，相當一部分財富被揮霍無度的王子們揮灑一空，而且當時國家的短期計劃將基建置于教育之上的地位?！?br>