中國(guó)城市經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與環(huán)境質(zhì)量變化關(guān)系的實(shí)證研究

摘要：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅速發(fā)展，城市環(huán)境問(wèn)題已成為諸多學(xué)者的研究熱點(diǎn)。為此，建立經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與環(huán)境質(zhì)量變化的二次函數(shù)模型；選擇關(guān)鍵環(huán)境要素指標(biāo)，對(duì)中國(guó)39個(gè)城市的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與環(huán)境質(zhì)量變化關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。實(shí)證結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)：除氮氧化物濃度外，其余污染物與收入確實(shí)存在倒“U”型曲線現(xiàn)象，說(shuō)明在未來(lái)可預(yù)測(cè)的年份里，隨著中國(guó)城市經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，氮氧化物將成為城市污染最嚴(yán)重的問(wèn)題；除氮氧化物濃度外，中國(guó)城市其余污染物的倒“U”曲線轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)具有自己的特點(diǎn)。因此，因地制宜地制定城市環(huán)境保護(hù)政策是慰平中國(guó)城市環(huán)境茲涅茨曲線的有效辦法。

關(guān)鍵詞:城市經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)；環(huán)境質(zhì)量；環(huán)境庫(kù)茲涅茨曲線；二次函數(shù)模型

中圖分類號(hào)：F290 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A

文章編號(hào)：1001-148X（2007）10-0024-04

The Positive Study on the Relationship Between Chinese City Economic

Growth and Environmental Quality

LIU Yao-bin

（School of Economics and Management， Nanchang University， Nanchang 330047，China)

Abstract:The quadratic function models between city economic growth and environmental quality clarifies the relationship between the economic growth of 39 cities and their environmental quality. The results show there is an inverse“U”-shaped curve between other pollutions and income except the concentration of NO_x， which reveals the pollution of NO_x will be more serious with the economic growth of Chinese cities. Thanks to the characteristics among the turning points of the inverse “U”-shaped curves for the different pollution cases except the concentration of NO_x， it is an available approach for the government to make different policies according to the different Environmental Kuzents Curves.

Key words: city economic growth;environmental quality;environmental Kuzents curves;quadratic function models

一、問(wèn)題提出

當(dāng)今世界經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速發(fā)展，人類賴以生存的自然環(huán)境受到不同程度的破壞，如何處理經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與環(huán)境保護(hù)的關(guān)系，已成為世界面臨的重大問(wèn)題和各國(guó)學(xué)者的研究熱點(diǎn)。中國(guó)作為一個(gè)發(fā)展中大國(guó)，中國(guó)的環(huán)境問(wèn)題，特別是城市環(huán)境問(wèn)題已經(jīng)引起多方人士的高度重視。2004年中國(guó)SO₂年排放居世界第一，中國(guó)的上海、北京和天津的總懸浮顆粒物、SO₂和NO_x濃度不僅高于世界衛(wèi)生組織關(guān)于大氣質(zhì)量的年平均指導(dǎo)值，而且位于世界大城市大氣污染前列（世界銀行，2004）。與此同時(shí)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度近10多年一直來(lái)位于世界前列。因此研究中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，特別是城市經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與環(huán)境質(zhì)量之間關(guān)系問(wèn)題不僅是中國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題，也是世界可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要研究課題，所以研究目前中國(guó)城市經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與環(huán)境質(zhì)量的關(guān)系尤顯重要。……