New Trends in the Development of Party Politics in Africa During a Period of Turbulence and Change

On August 24， 2020， General Secretary Xi Jinping， for the first time， raised the idea that “the world has entered a period of turbulence and change” at a symposium with experts in the economic and social fields. The report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China （CPC） further elaborated on the notion that “the world has entered a new period of turbulence and change”. In recent years， the African continent has clearly demonstrated characteristics of turbulence and change， manifested prominently in four aspects： Multiple countries have experienced military coups and internal conflicts; Geopolitical competition among regional countries has intensified; National governance dilemmas continue to impact the process of political development; A renewed awakening among regional countries has been spurred by their strategic autonomy and strength through unity.

In this new period of turbulence and change， party politics in African countries has entered a new phase of adjustment and is displaying new trends of development.

Polarization in the Development of Party Politics

In the 1990s， political democratization drove the rapid development of party politics across Africa， most notably reflected in the widespread adoption of multiparty systems in the vast majority of African countries. Competitive multiparty elections became a norm in political life and the primary means for government change. However， since entering the current period of turbulence and change， party politics in Africa has shown increasingly polarized trends.

On the one hand， most countries have maintained a sound trajectory in party political development. Multiparty elections can generally be held on schedule in a stable and orderly manner， and the election results are accepted by the participating parties. Take 2024 as an example： 13 African countries held general elections. Among them， Algeria， Chad， Comoros， Mauritania， Mozambique， Namibia， Rwanda， Senegal， Tunisia and Ghana held presidential elections; Botswana， Mauritius and South Africa held national assembly elections. Although Senegal’s presidential election was delayed and large-scale unrest broke out after the election in Mozambique， all of these countries eventually transitioned smoothly into new governance cycles， and party politics maintained a positive trajectory.

On the other hand， in a few countries， military coups or internal conflicts led to stagnation in the development of party politics. Since 2020， military coups have occurred in Mali， Guinea， Burkina Faso， Niger and Gabon. After these coups， leaders established transitional governments and entered into political transition periods， with elections to be held after the end of transition periods. These military takeovers have severely disrupted the party’s political development process in these countries. Whether they can successfully complete the transitions and hold presidential elections will be critical to whether the development of their party politics can return to normalcy. Currently， only Gabon has scheduled a presidential election in April 2025. Mali’s transitional government has indefinitely postponed its election originally planned for February 2024. Burkina Faso’s transitional government announced in May 2024 and March 2025 that the transition period would be extended by five more years. Guinea postponed its originally planned December 2024 election to 2025， but has yet to announce a specific date.

In Libya， Sudan and South Sudan， the development of party politics has been severely affected by domestic conflicts. Libya has been mired in political fragmentation and armed conflicts since 2011， rendering the party politics effectively defunct. In November 2020， the United Nations facilitated an agreement among Libyan factions on a political arrangement and announced plans for elections in December 2021. However， due to deep conflicts between the Government of National Unity and the House of Representatives， elections have been repeatedly delayed. In Sudan， following the ouster of former President Omar al-Bashir in April 2019， the country descended into political chaos， and ultimately in April 2023 an armed conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces broke out. The conflict now has shown signs of becoming a prolonged war of attrition， and with no hope for domestic peace， the development of party politics has reached a dead end. South Sudan， shortly after gaining independence in 2011， descended into armed conflict. A peace agreement among conflicting parties was reached in August 2018， and a unified transitional government was eventually formed in February 2020. However， since 2020， the transitional period has been repeatedly extended and is now scheduled to conclude in December 2026. Ongoing armed conflict and an extended political transition have brought the country’s party politics development to a halt.

Fragmentation of Party Power Structures

Since 2020， with the decline of traditional dominant parties and the rise of numerous emerging parties and political alliances， Africa’s party power structure has shown an increasingly fragmented trend. This is particularly evident in the frequent participation of more than 10， sometimes even tens of， political parties in elections. Among the eight countries that held presidential elections in 2023， only Egypt and the Democratic Republic of the Congo had fewer than ten participating parties. The other six countries had more than 10： Zimbabwe had 11， Nigeria 18 and Liberia 20. Even more parties participated in parliamentary elections. For example， in the 2024 national assembly elections， 41 parties competed in Senegal， 52 in South Africa and as many as 182 in Chad. The high number of participating parties has intensified political competition and exerted multiple impacts on both the electoral process and post-election politics.

First， parliamentary seat distribution has become increasingly dispersed. In the December 2023 national assembly elections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo， the ruling Union for Democracy and Social Progress won only 69 of 477 seats. Other parties， such as the Action and Congolese Nation Alliance and the Alliance of Democratic Forces of the Congo， won 35 seats each. Eleven parties won more than 10 seats， while 29 parties won fewer than 10 seats. The same trend appeared in South Africa’s May 2024 national assembly election. Of the 400 seats， the African National Congress （ANC） won 159 seats， the Democratic Alliance， the uMkhonto weSizwe Party， the Economic Freedom Fighters and the Inkatha Freedom Party won 87， 58， 39 and 19 seats respectively. 10 other parties won fewer than nine seats.

Second， it is difficult for presidential candidates to win by a large margin. Between 2021 and 2024， 40 African countries held presidential elections. Among them， Somalia’s president was elected indirectly by parliament; the result of Gabon’s election was an1ed due to a military coup and the winners in Egypt， Tunisia， and Algeria were independent candidates. Of the remaining 35 countries where party candidates won， only 12 had winners with more than 60% of the votes; most of them were long-ruling， low-competition governments such as Burundi， Equatorial Guinea and Rwanda. In 23 African countries， 65.71% of the total， the winning candidates received less than 60% of the votes. In Niger， Sao Tome and Principe， and Liberia， no candidate received over 50% in the first round. In countries such as Nigeria， Liberia， Kenya， Angola， Cape Verde， Zimbabwe， the Central African Republic， The Gambia， Senegal and Seychelles， the winners received less than 55%， with Nigeria， Kenya， and Liberia posting particularly narrow wins at 36.61%， 50.46%， and 50.49% respectively.

Third， forming party alliances has become an even more important approach in multiparty elections. In some African countries， due to the large number of participating political parties and the generally weak or evenly matched strength among them， no single party is capable of winning an election on its own. As a result， forming political alliances has become the primary option for most parties. In Kenya， since 2002， presidential elections have been contested by various party alliances. For example， in 2022， the top two presidential candidates came from the Kenya Kwanza Alliance and the Azimio la Umoja–One Kenya Coalition. Among the countries holding general elections in 2024， Mauritania， Namibia， Senegal， Botswana and Mauritius all had party alliances participating. In Botswana and Mauritius， the Umbrella for Democratic Change （UDC） and The Alliance of Change won the elections， respectively. In South Africa， where no single party won a parliamentary majority， the long-ruling ANC was forced to form a government of national unity with the Democratic Alliance and eight other parties.

Normalization of Inter-Party government Change

For quite a long time after gaining independence， many African countries experienced government change by coups or other violent means. From the 1960s to 1980s， over 70% of African leaders were ousted due to coups， violent power struggles， or assassinations. Since the wave of political democratization in the 1990s， although some leaders have still been removed by coups， the vast majority of government transitions have been achieved peacefully through multiparty elections and inter-party power transfers. From 1990 to 2015， a total of 19 sub-Saharan African countries experienced inter-party government changes.

Since 2020， this trend of government change through elections has continued. Over the past five years， 10 countries have undergone inter-party government transitions through general elections. Among them， Malawi， Zambia， Kenya， Liberia， Mauritius， Ghana and Senegal have experienced multiple transitions， while Seychelles and Botswana had such changes for the first time. In the countries with repeated transitions， government change has consistently occurred among different parties or party alliances in Malawi， Zambia， Kenya， Mauritius and Senegal. In Zambia， the Patriotic Front defeated the Movement for Multiparty Democracy in 2011， only to be replaced by the United Party for National Development in 2021. In Liberia and Ghana， two major parties alternated power—Liberia’s Unity Party and Coalition for Democratic Change， and Ghana’s New Patriotic Party and National Democratic Congress. Seychelles and Botswana saw their first inter-party government transitions in 2020 and 2024 respectively， with the Seychelles Democratic Union ending the United Seychelles’s 43-year rule， and Botswana’s UDC ending the Botswana Democratic Party’s 58-year rule.

The inter-party government change through general elections in more and more African countries indicates that multiparty elections are maturing and inter-party government transitions have become a likely and recurring feature of African politics. Looking at presidential elections since 2020， some of the traditionally dominant parties no longer enjoy overwhelming advantages. Their candidates barely won with just over 50% of the votes. Joao Lourenco， the candidate of the People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola （MPLA）， received only 51.17% of the votes in the 2022 election. Emmerson Mnangagwa， candidate of the Zimbabwe African National Union–Patriotic Front （ZANU–PF）， won 52.60% of the votes in the 2023 election. Compared with previous elections， these dominant parties have seen a constant decline in vote share. Uganda’s National Resistance Movement received 68.38% in 2011， 60.75% in 2016 and only 58.34% in 2021. Angola’s MPLA received 71.85% in 2012， 61.08% in 2017 and 51.17% in 2022.

The normalization of inter-party government change encourages ruling parties to focus on enhancing their governing capacity and improving governance—particularly in driving economic development and improving people’s livelihoods—in order to retain long time in power. For traditional ruling parties whose support is declining or facing the risk of electoral defeat， there is an urgent need to strengthen governance.

For instance， after winning the August 2023 election， Zimbabwe’s ZANU–PF repeatedly emphasized that economic development and improving people’s livelihood would be the core priorities for the next five years. Similarly， following South Africa’s 2024 general election， President Cyril Ramaphosa declared in his inauguration speech that the government would vigorously promote economic growth， create a better employment environment， build safer communities， deliver public services， and advance a plan for fundamental and lasting reform.

Frequent Disputes in Multiparty Elections

In multiparty elections across African countries， it is common for certain political parties to incite disputes or unrest due to dissatisfaction with the election results. Overall， since the 1990s， with the continued advancement of multiparty elections and the gradual maturation of party politics in Africa， the likelihood of large-scale turmoil and unrest triggered by elections in African countries has significantly decreased. However， since 2020， under the influence of various adverse factors during the period of turbulence and change， electoral conflicts have frequently occurred in national elections in African countries. In some cases， such election-related events even led to large-scale unrest and political instability.

Electoral disputes in Africa mainly occur during presidential elections and can be categorized into pre-election disputes and post-election disputes. Pre-election disputes occur relatively less frequently and are mainly triggered by certain political parties or political figures boycotting the elections. For example， prior to C?te d’Ivoire’s presidential election in October 2020， former President Henri Konan Bedie refused to participate in campaign activities and repeatedly called on the opposition to hold demonstrations and protests to boycott the incumbent President Alassane Ouattara’s bid for a third term. On February 3， 2024， President Macky Sall of Senegal announced indefinite postponement of the presidential election originally scheduled for February 25， which sparked pre-election disputes in Senegal. After intervention by the Constitutional Council， the presidential election was eventually held on March 24.

Post-election disputes usually involve the losing candidates refusing to accept the election results， citing reasons such as a lack of freedom and fairness in the elections， fraud in the vote-counting process， or favoritism by the electoral commission toward the winning candidate. Compared with pre-election disputes， post-election disputes occur much more frequently. Among the eight countries that held presidential elections in 2023， a military coup occurred in Gabon on the day the election results were announced. In Nigeria， Sierra Leone， Zimbabwe， Madagascar， and the Democratic Republic of the Congo， opposition parties refused to recognize the results and triggered varying degrees of electoral disputes. Only in Liberia and Egypt were the announced election results met without objections.

After electoral disputes break out， opposition parties often appeal to the Supreme Court， Constitutional Court， or Constitutional Council， requesting a ruling on the election results or demanding a re-run of the election. This was the case in countries such as the Central African Republic， Kenya and Zimbabwe. Although since 2020 most rulings have upheld the original election results， and there have been no repetitions of the Kenyan Supreme Court’s annulment of the 2017 presidential election or the Malawian Constitutional Court’s annulment of the 2019 presidential election， the resolution of electoral disputes through judicial appeal fully demonstrates that， after more than 30 years of development， African party politics has gradually become institutionalized， standardized， and non-violent.

Of course， not all electoral disputes can be peacefully resolved through appeals. For example， in Sierra Leone’s 2023 presidential election， the main opposition party， the All People’s Congress， refused to accept the results， leading to sustained political tension and an attempted coup. In Mozambique’s 2024 presidential election， the second-place Optimist Party for the Development of Mozambique did not recognize the results and launched public protests， which eventually escalated into large-scale riots involving looting and vandalism.

Weakening Public Support and Willingness for Elections

The introduction of multiparty elections marked the beginning of Africa’s political democratization. The proceduralization and normalization of multiparty elections have been regarded as important indicators of democratic political development in Africa. According to the Afrobarometer survey， since the political democratization in Africa in the 1990s， public support for multiparty elections initially rose and then declined， reaching a peak of 83% between 2011 and 2013， but falling to 75% during the 2021–2023 period. In countries such as South Africa， Botswana， Senegal and Namibia， support dropped by more than 10%， and in Tunisia， it dropped by more than 20%. The continuous decline in African public support for multiparty elections stems from perceptions of low electoral efficacy， insufficient fairness and justice， and inadequate confidentiality and security. For example， only 45% of respondents believe that elections can remove poorly performing leaders from office， only 58% believe that elections are fair and just， and only 65% believe they can vote without pressure.

The decline in public support for multiparty elections in Africa is also reflected in a significant lack of willingness to vote， resulting in relatively low voter turnout in some countries. Among the 18 countries that held presidential elections since 2023， only Sierra Leone， Chad， Namibia and Rwanda had voter turnout above 70%. Among the 14 countries with turnout below 70%， Nigeria， Tunisia， Algeria， Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of the Congo all had turnout below 50%. In particular， Nigeria and Tunisia recorded only 27% and 28.80%， while Algeria and Mozambique had only 40.16% and 42.16% respectively.

Against the backdrop of declining public support for multiparty elections， African citizens’ attitude toward democratic politics and military intervention in politics has also undergone significant changes. On the one hand， public satisfaction with democratic politics has declined sharply. According to the Afrobarometer survey， public satisfaction with democratic politics in Africa dropped from 50% during 2011–2013 to 38% in 2021–2023. In Mauritius， Botswana and South Africa， satisfaction with democratic politics declined by more than 20%， falling to 32%， 30%， and 25% respectively. The decline in satisfaction with democratic politics has also led to a decrease in support for democratic governments， from 73% in 2011–2013 to 66% in 2021–2023. In countries such as C?te d’Ivoire， Mauritius， Mozambique and South Africa， support dropped by more than 10%.

On the other hand， tolerance toward military intervention in politics among African citizens has increased. Although African countries generally opposed the military coups in Mali and other countries since 2020， due to poor governance by elected governments， public tolerance for military involvement in politics has increased to some extent. Afrobarometer data shows that opposition to military governments among African citizens declined from 76% in 2011–2013 to 65% in 2021–2023. In addition to countries that experienced coups such as Mali， Burkina Faso and Niger， other countries like Mauritius， Senegal， Ghana， Namibia and South Africa also saw declines of more than 10%. Meanwhile， when national leaders abuse power， 53% of the public support military intervention in politics. In countries such as C?te d’Ivoire， Tanzania， the Republic of the Congo， Togo and Namibia， support exceeds 60%.

Conclusion

At present， the great changes unseen in a century are accelerating， and the development of party politics around the world is marked by intertwined changes and disorder. The trends of political extremism， fragmentation and populism in the political parties of the United States and the West are particularly pronounced. Influenced by the global development of party politics， African party politics has also shown characteristics such as fragmentation， populism， the decline of traditional dominant parties and the rise of new political parties. However， in terms of intensified ideological struggles， disorderly party competition and the distortion of electoral mechanisms and models， such problems have not yet become prominent in African countries. Although African party politics faces certain problems， it has generally maintained a stable development trend compared with the party politics of the West， which is rife with chaos.

The emergence of trends such as the polarization of party political development， the fragmentation of party power structures， the normalization of inter-party government change， the increasing frequency of disputes in multiparty elections and the weakening of public support and willingness for elections can be attributed， in large part， to the poor governance of ruling parties in the countries concerned. This has led to a series of political， economic， social and security crises， triggering public dissatisfaction. The new trends in the development of party politics in Africa pose new and higher requirements for ruling parties in various African countries. Against the current backdrop—where African countries are undergoing a renewed awakening， their awareness of strategic autonomy continues to grow， and deep reflections are taking place on whether Western-style democracy is suitable for Africa’s realities—if ruling parties in African countries wish to resolve persistent problems such as electoral disputes and electoral unrest， regain public support and maintain long-term ruling status， it is essential to effectively strengthen party building and improve national governance capacity.

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Shen Xiaolei is Deputy Director of the South Africa Research Center at the Institute of West-Asian and African Studies， CASS