1982一2021年氣候變化對淮北市夏玉米產量的影響

中圖分類號 S513 文獻標識碼A 文章編號 1007-7731（2025）14-0001-06

DOI號 10.16377/j.cnki.issn1007-7731.2025.14.001

Impact of climate change on summer maize yield in Huaibei City from 1982 to 2021

LIU Lu1CAO Wen ZHANG Yongqin1YIN Han1WANG Shengnan1LIN Shanshan1LI Xinran1 （1Huaibei Meteorological Bureau，Huaibei 2350oo， China; 2Anhui Enginering LaboratoryofAgro-EcologicalBig Data，Anhui Agrometeorological Center，Hefei230031，China）

AbstractBased on meteorological and yield data of summer maize growth period in Huaibei City，Anhui Province from1982 to 2O21，the characteristicsof climate changeduring the growth periodof summer maize in theregionand its impact on yield were analyzed using trend analysis，moving average method，and Pearsoncorrelation analysis method. The results showed that（1）from1982 to2O21，the studyarea hadsuffcient precipitation，heat，andsunshineresources duringthe growth period of summer maize，which met the growth and development of summer maize.（2）From 1982 to 2021，the changes in summer maize yield and meteorological yield in the study area showeda consistent downward trend，withsignificant interannual variations inyieldandscatereddistributionofmeteorologicalyield.Byanalyzingthe relative meteorological yield，itcould beconcluded thatthe typical years of summer maize yield deficit in this region were 1987，1994，2003，2007and2014，mainlyafected bymeteorologicaldisasters such as droughtand waterloging （including continuousrainy weather）. （3）The diurnal temperature rangeand precipitation were the key meteorological factors affecting the yield of summer maize in study area，among which the diurnal temperature range during the milk ripening maturity period is significantly positively correlated with yield （ P lt;0.01）; The precipitation during the tasseling milk ripening period is significantly negatively correlated with yield （ P lt;0.05）; The average temperature，effective accumulated temperaturegt;1OC，and sunshine hours have no significant impacton yield.Thisarticle provides a reference for regulating the microclimate in the field and improving maize yield.

Keywordsclimate change; summer maize; meteorological yield; related analysis

氣候是農業生產中基本且重要的條件之一，其影響著農業的組成、布局和產量等l。近年來，相關學者對氣候變化展開研究[2-3]。趙偉[4研究指出，氣候因素是農業生產的重要影響因素之一，其對玉米種植產生了較大的影響。

玉米是喜溫、短日照、高需水量作物，其生長發育對氣溫、日照及降水要求較高[5-。研究氣候變化對玉米產量的影響，對促進產業發展和增加農民收入具有積極意義。Lobell等研究發現，玉米生育期環境溫度超過 會產生熱脅迫，導致光合速率下降、蒸散發增加，進而提高干旱發生的概率。Chen等8研究發現，氣溫升高會導致長江流域玉米減產，極端高溫、干旱和強降水對玉米產量影響較大。Liu等研究發現，極端低溫以及玉米開花灌漿期降水較少會導致玉米減產。另外，干旱也是影響玉米產量的重要因素之一[10]。從各生育階段來看，生育早期干旱會導致玉米生殖器官發育減緩1；在生殖生長階段，缺水會引起光合作用下降，從而導致生殖器官的營養供應不足，造成玉米減產[2]。光合作用是玉米營養物質積累的主要來源，而抽雄吐絲階段光照充足是保證玉米產量的關鍵[13]。

近年來，關于氣候變化對農業生產的影響研究較多[14]，但針對氣候變化對淮北地區夏玉米不同生育階段生長及產量影響的研究相對較少。本文基于1982一2021年安徽淮北市夏玉米生育期的氣象數據和產量數據，分析了該地區夏玉米不同生育期的氣候變化特征及其對產量的影響，為充分開發利用氣候資源和提高糧食產量提供參考。……