不同物理過(guò)程參數(shù)化方案對(duì)江淮梅雨降水預(yù)報(bào)的影響分析

摘要 為研究不同物理過(guò)程參數(shù)化方案對(duì)江淮梅雨降水預(yù)報(bào)的影響，基于WRFv4.4.2，利用GFS預(yù)報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)、第六版MODIS土地覆蓋類型產(chǎn)品和ERA5-Land觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)集，使用均方根誤差、相關(guān)系數(shù)、公平技巧評(píng)分和偏差評(píng)分等方法，模擬評(píng)估Ferrier、WSM6和Thompson這3種云微物理過(guò)程參數(shù)化方案，以及KF、BMJ和Tiedtke這3種積云對(duì)流參數(shù)化方案共9種組合，對(duì)2020年7月14日00：00—17日00：00江淮流域梅雨期一次降水過(guò)程的預(yù)報(bào)效果進(jìn)行分析。結(jié)果表明，（1）積云對(duì)流參數(shù)化方案對(duì)江淮梅雨降水預(yù)報(bào)有更為明顯的影響，使用BMJ可以獲得較好的預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果；（2）WRF模式在山地、城市等區(qū)域表現(xiàn)不佳，在平原、農(nóng)田等區(qū)域表現(xiàn)尚可，適用性存在一定不足；（3）在江淮流域北部地區(qū)（32.7 °N以上）使用WSM6和BMJ的實(shí)驗(yàn)組合綜合表現(xiàn)較佳，可較為準(zhǔn)確地預(yù)報(bào)降水過(guò)程變化趨勢(shì)，對(duì)小雨和中雨量級(jí)的降水落區(qū)有較高的預(yù)報(bào)技巧。為今后江淮梅雨期降水預(yù)報(bào)提供參考。

關(guān)鍵詞 WRF模式；參數(shù)化方案；預(yù)報(bào)評(píng)估；江淮流域；梅雨期降水過(guò)程

中圖分類號(hào) S165" " 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼 A" " 文章編號(hào) 1007-7731（2024）16-0110-07

DOI號(hào) 10.16377/j.cnki.issn1007-7731.2024.16.026

Impact of different parameterization schemes for physical processes on the forecast

of Meiyu precipitation in the Jianghuai region

HU Zhiqiang" " WANG Jun" " WANG Runshi

（Fengtai County Meteorological Bureau， Fengtai 232100， China）

Abstract In order to investigate the impact of different physical process parameterization schemes on the forecast of Meiyu precipitation in the Jianghuai region， based on WRFv4.4.2， GFS forecast data， the sixth edition MODIS land cover type product， and ERA5 Land observation dataset were used to simulate and evaluate three cloud microphysical process parameterization schemes， Ferrier， WSM6， and Thompson， as well as nine combinations of three cumulus convective parameterization schemes， KF， BMJ， and Tiedtke， using methods such as root mean square error， correlation coefficient， fair skill score， and bias score. The forecast effect of a precipitation process during the Meiyu period in the Jianghuai River Basin from 00：00 on July 14， 2020 to 00：00 on July 17， 2020 was evaluated. The results indicated that （1） the parameterization scheme of cumulus convection had a more significant impact on the precipitation forecast of Jianghuai plum rain， and using BMJ could obtain better forecast results; （2） the WRF model performed poorly in mountainous and urban areas， but fairly well in plains， farmland， and other areas， with certain limitations in applicability; （3） the experimental combination of WSM6 and BMJ performed well in the northern region of the Jianghuai region （above 32.7°N）， and could accurately predict the trend of precipitation process changes. It had high forecasting skills for precipitation areas of light rain and moderate rain levels. The purpose was to provide references for future precipitation forecasting during the Jianghuai region rain season.

Keywords WRF model; parameterization scheme; forecast evaluation; Jianghuai River Basin; precipitation process during the Meiyu period

江淮流域是持續(xù)性強(qiáng)降水過(guò)程的多發(fā)區(qū)域之一[1]。在東亞夏季風(fēng)和復(fù)雜下墊面的共同影響下，江淮梅雨期（6月中下旬至7月中上旬）成為江淮流域主要的強(qiáng)降水集中時(shí)段之一，具有降水量級(jí)大、持續(xù)時(shí)間長(zhǎng)和影響范圍廣等特點(diǎn)，平均降水量在200～300 mm，約占全年總降水量的1/4[2-3]。江淮流域雨帶分為經(jīng)向型和緯向型兩種，二者在降水強(qiáng)度和環(huán)流特征方面基本相似，區(qū)別在于后者多出現(xiàn)在梅雨期，位于高層反氣旋的中心，降水量更大、范圍更廣，降水量、降水頻率的日變化呈現(xiàn)夜間主峰值、午后次峰值的雙峰特征[4-6]。……