達木斯鄉英巴格村滑坡風險性評價

摘 要：我國新疆地區地形地貌和地質構造復雜，莎車縣境內滑坡災害頻發，對區域內居民的生產生活造成嚴重影響。該文以新疆維吾爾自治區莎車縣達木斯鄉英巴格村滑坡為研究對象，首先基于野外實地調查通過Massflow數值模擬軟件獲取滑坡啟動機理和運動特征，然后選取核算承災體價值法，計算承災體現有的價值，得到承災體易損性；最后結合地質災害危險性評價及易損性評價方法，共同建立單體地質災害定量風險評價體系。模擬結果顯示，英巴格村典型滑坡面積較小，整體運動時長約20 s，最大滑動速度約17.03 m/s，對于滑坡前緣區域的房屋和農村道路構成直接威脅。在100年一遇風險概率下，英巴格村滑坡中風險區域內有2棟磚混結構房屋，用途均為羊圈；高風險區域內威脅公路約73 m，公路等級為鄉道；極高風險區域內有1棟磚混結構房屋，用途為住宅，威脅村民6人。

關鍵詞：Massflow；滑坡；運動過程；風險評價；模擬分析

中圖分類號：P642.22 文獻標志碼：A 文章編號：2095-2945（2024）23-0105-05

Abstract： China's Xinjiang region has complex topography， geomorphology and geological structure， and landslide disasters are frequent in Shache County， which have a serious impact on the production and life of the residents in the region. Taking the landslide in Yimbag Village， Damus Township， Shache County， Xinjiang Autonomous Region as the research object. Firstly， based on the field investigation， the starting mechanism and movement characteristics of the landslide are obtained by Massflow numerical simulation software. Then， the method of calculating the value of the disaster-bearing body is selected to calculate the existing value of the disaster-bearing body， and the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body is obtained. Finally， based on geological hazard risk assessment and vulnerability assessment methods， a single geological hazard quantitative risk assessment system is established. The simulation showed that the typical landslide in Yimbag Village had a small area， the overall movement duration was about 20 s， and the maximum sliding velocity was about 17.03 m/s， which constituted a direct threat to the houses and rural roads in the area of the leading edge of the landslide. At most once in 100 years， there are two brick-concrete structure houses in the risk area of Yimbag landslide， both of which are used as sheep sheepfolds， the threat highway in the high-risk area is about 73 m and the highway grade is rural road， and there is one brick-concrete structure house in the extremely high-risk area. it is used as a residence and threatens 6 villagers.

Keywords： Massflow; landslide; motion process; risk assessment; simulation analysis

莎車縣位于新疆維吾爾族自治區喀什地區，南接昆侖山脈，北接帕米爾高原，地形呈西南高、東北低特點，從西南部山區到東北部平原地區可劃分為5個地貌區：侵蝕剝蝕高山、剝蝕中山低山、洪積礫質平原、沖積細土平原和風積沙漠[1]。英巴格村位于新疆喀什地區莎車縣的西南部山區，該區域共發育6處滑坡地質災害隱患點。斜坡表層巖土體易受到降雨或地震活動影響而發生崩塌和淺層滑坡。國內外學者從不同角度對滑坡形態變化及運動過程進行了研究，提出了以下模型：平滑粒子流模型、離散元模型、有限元模型和流體力學模型。……