Breach a Critical Warming Threshold 全球變暖或超臨界點

世界氣象組織的年度報告稱，在溫室效應和厄爾尼諾現象的共同作用下，地球可能在未來五年內首次突破較工業化前水平升高1.5 ℃的臨界點。

The world is now likely to breach a key climate 1）threshold for thefirst time within the next five years， according to the World MeteorologicalOrganization（WMO）， due to a combination of heat-trapping pollution anda 2）looming El Ni?o.

Global temperatures have 3）soared in recent years as the worldcontinues to burn planet-warming fossil fuels like coal， oil and gas. And thattrend shows no sign of slowing. In its annual climate update， the WMO saidthat between 2023 and 2027， there is now a 66% chance that the planetstemperatures will climb above 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming above preindustriallevels for at least one year.

As temperatures surge， there is also a 98% 4）likelihood that at least oneof the next five years — and the five-year period as a whole — will be thewarmest on record for the planet， the WMO reported.

Breaching the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold may only be temporary，the WMO said， but it would be the clearest signal yet of how quickly climatechange is accelerating — hastening sea level rise，more extreme weather and the demise of vitalecosystems.

Countries pledged in the Paris Agreement?to limit global warming to well below 2degrees Celsius — and preferably to 1.5degrees Celsius — compared to preindustrialtemperatures. Scientists consider1.5 degrees Celsius of warming as akey tipping point， beyond which the chances of extreme flooding， drought，wildfires and food shortages could increase dramatically.

The temperature increases are fueled by the rise of planet-heatingpollution from burning fossil fuels， as well as the predicted arrival of El Ni?o，a natural climate phenomenon with a global heating effect.

The current hottest year on record is 2016， which followed a very strongEl Ni?o event. El Ni?o tends to ramp up the temperatures the year after itdevelops， which could put 2024 on track to be the hottest year on record.

Scientists have long warned that the world needs to stay within 1.5degrees Celsius of warming to avoid 5）catastrophic and potentially6）irreversible changes.

Warming above this point increases the risk of triggering major tippingpoints， including the death of coral reefs and the melting of polar ice sheets，which will add to sea level rise， devastatingcoastal communities.

Temperature rises also increase thefrequency and intensity of extreme weatherevents including droughts， storms， wildfiresand heatwaves.

1） threshold n. 起點；開端

2） loom v. 逐漸逼近

3） soar v. 猛增；高飛

4） likelihood n. 可能性

5） catastrophic adj. 災難性的

6） irreversible adj. 無法復原的

世界氣象組織稱，在溫室效應和即將發生的厄爾尼諾現象的共同作用下，地球可能在未來五年內首次突破一個關鍵的氣候臨界點。

由于世界繼續燃燒煤炭、石油和天然氣等化石燃料，全球氣溫近年來大幅上升，而且這一趨勢沒有變緩的跡象。世界氣象組織在其最新的年度氣候報告中指出，2023 年至2027 年間至少一年有66% 的概率——全球氣溫會比工業化前的水平升高1.5 ℃。

世界氣象組織報告稱，隨著氣溫上升，未來五年中至少一年有98% 的概率會成為地球史上最熱的年份，未來五年也會成為有史以來最熱的五年。

世界氣象組織稱，打破1.5 ℃的臨界點可能只是暫時的，但這是氣候變化加速最明確的信號，氣候變化會加速海平面上升，導致更多極端天氣和重要生態系統的瓦解。

各締約國曾在《巴黎協定》中承諾，將全球變暖限制在比工業化前水平升高2 ℃以內，最好是限制在1.5 ℃以內。科學家認為1.5 ℃是一個關鍵臨界點，超過1.5 ℃后特大洪災、干旱、森林火災和食物短缺發生的概率都會大增。

全球氣溫上升源于燃燒化石燃料導致的溫室效應以及預計會出現的厄爾尼諾現象，這種自然氣候現象會導致全球變暖。

當前史上最熱年份是2016 年，就是伴隨強厄爾尼諾現象而來的。厄爾尼諾現象會推高來年的氣溫，這可能會使2024 年成為有史以來最熱的年份。

長久以來，科學家一直警告稱，全球變暖必須控制在1.5 ℃以內，以避免災難性和潛在不可逆轉的變化。

全球變暖超過1.5 ℃會增加多個重要臨界點被觸發的風險，包括珊瑚礁死亡和極地冰原融化，這會使海平面升高，給海岸居民帶來毀滅性后果。

氣溫升高還會增加包括干旱、暴風雨、森林火災和熱浪在內的極端天氣的頻率和強度。

Know More

厄爾尼諾是發生在熱帶太平洋海溫異常增暖的一種氣候現象，大范圍熱帶太平洋增暖，會造成全球氣候的變化，但這個狀態要維持3 個月以上，才認定是真正發生了厄爾尼諾事件。