US Democratic Party Campaign Strategy Adjustmentunder the Background of Political Polarization

With the US 2024 electionyear already in sight， thecampaign of the Democrat- ic Party has drawn wide attention from the media and academia. Shortly after former President Trump announced his White House bid for 2024， Presi- dent Biden officially announced his 2024 re-election bid. In the face of a possible “Biden V.S. Trump version 2.0”， the campaign strategy of the Demo- cratic Party has been a hot topic.

US DEMOCRATIC PARTY CAMPAIGN STRATEGY ADJUSTMENT

Since 2010， American political po- larization has intensified. During the Biden administration， the implication and manifestation of political polariza- tion in the United States continued to expand， leading up to frequent con- frontation on all fronts. In this context， the Democratic Party has vigorously adjusted its campaign strategy to adapt to the changing political logic and maximize its advantages in the election.

First is to highlight “identity” as the mainstay of the campaign. Judg- ing from the development of “identity politics” in the United States， the Dem- ocratic Party has long played a leading role and benefited a lot from it. Faced with challenges on “identity politics” from the rise of American right-wing conservatives， the Democratic Party has gradually gone deeper into the core of “identity politics” in itselectioncampaigns， lending more emphasis to “identity” in its campaign， and pacing up the transformation from “identity politics” to “identity”. Unlike “identity politics”， which focuses on equality， “identity” calls for attention to issues of deeper cultural value， and works better to propel individuals or groups to get involved in politics and fight for their rights and interests.

Second is to interfere with the Republican primaries. With the inten- sification of party struggle， the Demo- crats take a indirect approach. They carefully selected competent candi- dates for the party， while heavy-hand- edly interfering with the Republican primaries helping their “problematic” rivals to stand out in the primaries so as to increase their own odds in the final round. During the mid-term elec- tion in 2022， the Democratic political organizations such as the Democratic Governors Association invested more than 53 million US dollars to inter- vene in 13 Republican primaries in 9 states. Judging from the results， the Democratic Party’sadventurousstrat- egy has made great achievements， which has aborted the Republican plan of a “red wave”.

Third is to leverage the advantages of social media. The first part of the so- cial media campaign is about political propaganda. Through social software such as X， Meta， YouTube and Insta- gram， Democratic candidates directly and quickly publicized information on policies， plans and campaign activities.The second part is targeted advertise- ment delivery. The Democratic Party’s campaign team makes full use of the algorithmic function of social media advertising platform to accurately de- liver feeds to voters with certain politi- cal stand and interests. The third part is to influence public opinion. The Democrats create relevant hash tags and feeds to create favorable public opinion for the campaign.

Fourth is to use “wedge issues” to beef up their campaign.“Wedge issues” can easily make people emo- tional， and have become an important yardstick to distinguish the ideologies of the Democrats and Republicans and a key tool to consolidate their respec- tive support base. The first is the issue of abortion. With the overthrow of Roe v Wade， the Democratic Party made a big fuss about abortion to stokedis- content among voters. The second is the issue of gun control. In 2022， many large-scale shootings broke out in the United States， which triggered protests across the country. President Biden signed the “Bipartisan Safer Commu- nities Act” as strongly commended by gun control advocates. The third issue is democracy. The Democratic Party has portrayed itself as a spokesman for American democracy and repeat- edly warned voters of the threat posed by Trump and the Republican Party to US democracy.

Fifth is to copy the “Abrams Model” in the campaign. In 2020 and 2022， Stacey Abrams， a political activist of the Democratic Party of Georgia， helped the Democratic Party win the presidential election and the Senate election in the state， which turned Georgia “blue” for the first time since 1992. The “Abrams Model” emphasizes mobilizing young voters， rural voters and ethnic minority voters through social media and digital marketing to reverse the election situation. Nowa- days， in the face of increasingly polar- ized electoral politics， progressives within the Democratic Party and po- litical groups such as “Path to Victory” call for copying the “Abrams Model” in order to reproduce the miracle of the 2020 general election and the mid- term election in 2022.

SOCIAL AND POLITICALCONSIDERATIONS ON THEADJUSTMENT OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY’S CAMPAIGN STRATEGY

In recent years， the Democratic Party’s campaign strategy has gradu- ally gone from the traditional holistic approach where there is more empha- sis on the broad agenda and universal values to attract as many voters as pos- sible， to one that stresses on individual items on the overall agenda and speci- fied values， in order to mobilize the core group. This strategic adjustment reflects the profound changes in American social and political ecology.

I. The Influence of Political Po- larization

The political polarization in the United States has been intensifying since the 1970s， and it has reached the level of “super polarization” by the election year of 2016. In this context， the Democratic Party made a balance between traditional and new strategies in an effort to find the “optimal solu- tion” for the campaign. On the one hand， it pays more attention to voters’ cultural identity and identity politics issues with the aim to enhance voters’empathy and strengthen solidarity within the party. On the other hand， it makes active response to the actual needs of voters， puts forward more pragmatic policy programs， and at- tracts more support from swing voters.

II. The Impact of COVID-19 Pan- demic

Faced with the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the election agenda， the Democratic Party had to adjust its campaign strategy. First of all， in terms of campaign format， Biden， then the Democratic presidential candidate， basically canceled the traditional campaign activities such as campaign rallies， city assembly， and door-to-door canvassing， and was instead engaged in online campaign by delivering speeches to the public through live streaming service， and worked to im- prove the turnout rate of young voters by communicating with “influencers” on social media. The results showed that 65% of the voters aged from 18 to 24 voted for Biden， which was higher than that of any other age group.

Secondly， on the campaign agenda， the Democratic Party played the “COV- ID-19” card in an attempt to strike a chord with the public. During the 2020 general election， Biden proposed a series of COVID-19 response plans and policies. With the pandemic raging on， the Democratic Party worked to hypeup the spillover effects of COVID-19 pandemic in the society， actively mobi- lizedits own voters， and stoked voters’ anger with the Trump administration on other social issues， thus fostering a favorable campaign narrative.

III. Demographic Change

Over the past half century， the general trend of American population structure has featured slow growth， white population decline， minority population growth and education level improvement. Among them， the change of ethnic structure and educa- tion level has an important influence on party identification and election. Contrary to the decline in the white population， the population of ethnic minorities in the United States is grow- ing rapidly， and it is more significant among the “millennial” and younger generations. With the adjustment of in- dustrial structure， young people gather up in cities， especially metropolitan areas. At the same time， the educa- tion level of the American population continues to improve， and the propor- tion of people aged 25 and over with a bachelor’s degree continues to rise.

In American electoral politics， vot- ers’ ethnic group， age， education level， residence and other demographic characteristics will affect their party identity and voting preference. The demographic changes in the UnitedStates over the past decades have helped create an electoral political en- vironment to the benefit of the Demo- cratic Party. In order to “materialize on” the advantage， the Democratic Party adopted targeted strategies and formed an election alliance mainly composed of ethnic minorities， young people， urban residents and college- educated whites， which have for many times helped them turn the tide and win the WhiteHouse bid.

IV. The Driving Trend of Social Thoughts

The rise of extremism and the evolution of social values have acted as a powerful ideological thrust for the adjustment of the Democratic Party’s campaign strategy. First， extremism has resurfaced. On the one hand， with the upsurge of ultra-right social thoughts， American political factions are sharply opposed to each other， and the election division is ever more tan- gible. In the 2016 presidential election， most of the “alternative right” groups firmly supported Trump’s “alternative” political stance. On the other hand， Saunders’“democratic socialism” has made the radical left-wing policy pro- gram a mainstream issue instead of marginal propositions， and more and more Democrats regard progressive slogans such as “Green New Deal” and “Medicare for All” as the way to win the election.

Second， social values continue to evolve. In the past 20 years， American social values have undergone an in- flection point. Take the climate issue as an example. In recent years， more and more Americans have considered global climate change as one of the main threats facing the United States， in sharp contrast to being indiffer- ent to the issue before. Therefore， the Democratic Party took the climate issue as an important weapon during the election campaign and launched a fierce attack on the Republican Partyon many issues such as employment， economic growth and environmental protection. Value issues such as same- sex marriage， racial justice and gender equality have also become the ideo- logical basis for the Democratic Party to distinguish themselves from the Re- publicans and try to gain the support of as many targeted voters as possible.

INFLUENCE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY’S CAMPAIGN STRATEGYADJUSTMENT

The evolution of internal political ecology in the United States has prompt- ed both the Democratic and Republican party to make certain adjustments to their campaign strategies. Compared with the Republican Party， the change of the Democratic Party’s campaign strategy is more vulnerable to the attack from forces of different ethnic identity， class and politics. And this instability may have a significant impact on the Democratic Party and the entire politi- cal ecology of the United States.

First of all， for the Democratic Party， the adjustment of campaign strategy is a “double-edged sword”. On the one hand， it helps to attract andrepresent more and different groups of voters and improve the turnout rate overall. For a long time， the voter turnout rate in American federal elec- tions has been hovering at a low level. With changes in the population and ethnic structure of the American soci- ety， the Democratic Party actively set up a wide range of identity political issues， fully engaged with the public， boosted the turnout rate andrevital- izedits fundamental support base.

On the other hand， the Democratic Party’s initiative to change tactics also has hidden dangers and risks. First， it may lead to the loss of some voters. During the election campaign， the prepositioning of ethnic minorities and core voters is rapidly diluting the traditional support of the original blue-collar middle and lower classes to the Democratic Party， leading to a large number of blue-collar whites switching to the Republican camp. Second， the Democrats could easily “get burnt by playing with fire”. Most of the Republican candidates who are “ardently supported” with big money by the Democratic Party are extreme right-wingers who worship Trump. Democrats assume that it would beless difficult to defeat them than other Republicans. However， this strategy may be counterproductive， so it was denounced by some Democrats as “getting burnt by playing with fire”.

Secondly， for American domestic politics， the adjustment of the Demo- cratic Party’s campaign strategy will aggravate American political polariza- tion. The first is intensification of two- party struggle. For some time， the evo- lution of the internal ecology of the Democratic and Republican parties has greatly aggravated their antagonism. The two sides made extreme remarks during the election campaigns， almost turning a blind eye to laws and rules. The second is accelerated “tribaliza- tion” of voters. In American election political narrative， “tribalization” refers to the tendency of voters to form a tribe or faction in politics， support a specific political group or candidate according to ethnic， religious， gender and other identity factors， and stand in opposition with other groups. The Democratic Party played the “identity politics” card in the election campaign， which facilitated the “tribalization” of American voters to a greater extent.

In addition， the Democratic Party once again played up the “anti-Trump” card in the election campaign， and the political impact caused by it should not be underestimated. As of August 2023， Trump faced a total of 91 crimi- nal charges. The escalation of the alle- gations against Trump and the hidden agenda of the Democrats have been met with counter-offensive from the Republican elites and voters， further worsening the political antagonism.

Thirdly， for American foreign pol- icy， the adjustment of the Democratic Party’s campaign strategy may poten- tially generate spillover effects. The first is for the two parties to make ex- treme foreign policies. Compared with social issues， the two parties have few- er disagreements on diplomatic issues， especially on China. The root of thedomestically-driven diplomacy lies in the fact that the two parties have both perceived or choreographed the China threat in order to show toughness in competition. It is conceivable that with the intensification of the two-party struggle， the adjustment of the Demo- cratic Party’s campaign strategy will prompt the pair to further flex muscle and compete with each other on diplo- matic issues. The second is to damage the consistency of American foreign policy. In the fierce game between the Democrats and Republicans， in order to prove its tough stance on foreign affairs， the Democratic Party may go extreme， thus affecting the credibility and consistency of its foreign policy. As a matter of fact， some candidates in the Democratic Party did act against the party’s foreign policy purposes in order to attract votes， which could fracture Biden’s China policy.

CONCLUSION

In 2020， the Democratic Party won the US presidential election. In 2022， the Democratic Party escaped the curse of the disastrous mid-term election of the ruling party despite unfavorable condi- tions. The two major election victories greatly encouraged the Democratic Party and prompted it to actively think about the future election approach. Inrecent years， there have been voices within the Party calling for “centrist cor- rection”， trying to downplay the influ- ence of “identity politics” and transform the Democratic Party into one that covers ethnic minorities and whites， especially those who are culturally con- servative and have no university educa- tion background， in order to win future political elections.

Looking forward to the 2024 gen- eral election， the Democratic Party’s campaign trail is by no means smooth. Although the adjustment of its cam- paign strategy has brought it unex- pected benefits and made it full of con- fidence in the 2024 general election， the increasing party struggle and political polarization， as well as the unfavorable redistricting of constituencies， pose unavoidable pressure on it. In addition， the Democratic Party is not monolithic. Some party members and voters are hesitant about Biden’s re-election， be- lieving that old age restricts his ability to perform his duties as president. It remains to be seen whether the adjust- ment of the Democratic Party’s cam- paign strategy will continue to bring about the expected results.

WangLianhe is Professor of School ofInternational Relations and Public Affairs， Shanghai International Studies University