Relocating the Capital:Pressure Valve or Pump?

Hu Yukun

“This capital will not only have government offices，” declared Indonesian President Joko Widodo in a January 17 speech at a university. “We want to build a new smart metropolis that can be a magnet for global talent and a center of innovation.”

With a vision of a new capital “where the people are close from any destination， where they can bike and walk everywhere because there are zero emissions，” Indonesian government now has the legal mandate to launch one of its biggest infrastructure projects ever， estimated to cost 466 trillion rupiah （US$32.4 billion）.

Undoubtedly the challenges facing Jakarta and the whole country have given urgency to the issue of capital relocation， yet the question remains whether a new capital will bring relief or create new problems.

The Real “Archipelago”？

On January 18， the day after President Joko Widodo’s speech， the People’s Representative Council， Indonesia’s house of representatives， passed the new state capital law， providing a legal framework for relocating the country’s capital from Jakarta toa coastal jungle area on Borneo island. The relocation idea was first proposed more than twoyears ago.

The name of the new capitalwas also announced. “Nusantara，” meaning “archipelago” inJavanese， was chosen from a listof 80 names because it is widelyrecognizable to Indonesians andeasy to memorize， according toSuharsoMonoarfa， Minister ofNational Development Planning.

About 1，300 kilometers （800miles） from Jakarta and closerto the geographic center ofIndonesia， a vast archipelagoof 17，000 islands， Nusantaranow carries the expectations ofthe government and the wholenation. The project is more than just a future administrativecenter. Planners hope theproject will be key to solvingvarious problems that have been haunting the archipelago foryears.

For many reasons， thegovernment has accepted thatmaintaining the status quois no longer feasible. If notfor the COVID-19 pandemic，construction of the new capital would have started in 2020because the government couldnot wait.

Java is the world’s mostpopulous island but only thefifth largest in Indonesia. It ishome to around 55 percent ofthe country’s 270 million people.Situated on swampy land on thenorthwestern coast of the island，Jakarta has been grappling withproblems stemming from arelentlessly growing populationthat already surpasses 10 million.

Of course overpopulation isthe primary and most urgentburden to be relieved. Back in2015， Jakarta was already rankedby Time as the worst city fortraffic jams in the world， withapproximately 33，240 stop-startsper car per year， according tosatellite navigation data. Whilearound 3.5 million people choose to commute into the hot andhumid city by car from elsewhere in the metropolitan area ofGreater Jakarta， they have to staymotionless in the gridlock during most of the rush hour from 5 a.m. to 8 a.m. and from 5 p.m. to 8 p.m.

This routine would not benecessary without such highpopulation density （9，756/km2） and certainly results inan even more severe problem：pollution.

Before the COVID-19pandemic， the Jakarta HealthAgency’s data was terrifying：In 2019， the city had only twodays with air quality meetingthe standard of “healthy.” Localmanager Andy Rahman complained to a CNA reporter that his eyes were burning， his throat hurt， and hebegan to cough after 30 minutes ofcycling. The New York Times wrotethat even walking the streets couldbe a “hazardous exercise.”

On city construction， time cannotheal all wounds， but Jakarta may bedifferent. Described as the world’s most rapidly sinking city， the current capital could not resist the need for over-extraction of groundwater nor stop the rising Java Sea due to climate change.At the current rate （about 25cm a year），around one third of the city could besubmerged by 2050， experts predict.

“There were many times I could notgo out because the roads were flooded，” recalled Stella Kusumawardhani，an economic researcher at TenggaraStrategics， a business and investmentresearch institution based in Jakarta.“My friends suffered huge materiallosses because of the floods， and somepeople lost family members. People generally recognize that moving the capital is necessary.”

It is not just another capitalrelocation project in the ASEAN region. It is a race against time.

Environmental Concerns

Despite all the urgency and theprecedents of constructing dedicatedcapitals around the world， thegovernment’s plan is not withoutcontroversy. No one knows how longit will take for Nusantara to effectively function to relieve pressure offJakarta as planned， but skeptics seem quitesure that new pressure created by theproject is imminent.

“The only problem is our countrydoes not have the money to build a new city while dealing with the COVID-19pandemic，” added Stella. On March 9，one of the most prominent investorsin the project， Masayoshi Son， founderof SoftBank Group， pulled out， leavingeven more uncertainty surroundingthe funding of the capital relocationproject. The only certainty was thatthe Indonesian government could notcover all the costs alone.

Even previously， JATAM （a localnetwork of non-governmentorganizations and community groups）and other critics accused PresidentWidodo and the parliament of failingto address Indonesia’s economicdifficulties in the midst of thepandemic， calling the project a “wasteof money that will add new debt to thestate.”

According to Statista， a Germancompany specializing in statistics andsurveys， last year Indonesia’s nationaldebt to GDP ratio exceeded 40 percentfor the first time in the 21st Century，nearly 11 percent higher than in theyear 2019 when the government hadjust proposed the relocation plan andthe economy had not yet been hit byCOVID-19.

Alongside financial andmacroeconomic uncertainties，dissenting voices have emerged among residents of East Kalimantan， theprovince that will host the new capital.Difficulties in land concession andacquisition all add to the likelihood that Nusantara will not be built anytimesoon.

And to be clear： No one in Indonesia expects Nusantara to immediatelyreplace Jakarta in all aspects， because it certainly never will.

Just after the new legislation started paving the way for the relocation，Jakarta governor AniesBaswedaninsisted that the current capital would“continue to be the center of theeconomy， the center of other sectorslike culture， and the hub of the nation” in a press conference.

This sentiment was echoed byMuhamad Eka Yudhistira， a Jakartanwho works in hospitality. Havingsuffered from traffic jams and pollution for years， he expects the city to remainthe nation’s economic hub with oldburdens eased a bit.

More importantly， no matter whenthe relocation project is completed，Jakarta will remain central for ASEAN. As early as October 2019， shortlyafter the capital relocation plan wasproposed， ASEAN Secretary-GeneralLim Jock Hoi made it clear that theASEAN headquarters would remain in Jakarta， considering a new building forthem just went up there.

Likening the city to New York where the headquarters of the United Nations is seated， he predicted that “Jakartawould remain the capital of ASEAN，”even if it is not Indonesia’s capital.

Another lingering question reallymatters： Is the move creating newenvironmental burdens on more land rather than substantially reducing the current burden on Jakarta？

Almost all the local environmentalist groups and figures in the countryshare this concern. Even under normalcircumstances， lack of access to cleanwater is deemed a “crisis” in Borneo.If， as Indonesia’s Ministry of NationalDevelopment Planning has projected，the population of the region grows from 100，000 to 700，000 by 2025， and to 1.5million by 2035， the government andpeople will have an exponentially worse water scarcity problem on their hands.

For the island comprising

15，000 plant species and over 1，400amphibians， birds， fishes， mammals， reptiles， and insects， building a newmodern city with an influx of morethan a million people would certainly be a huge burden on its biodiversity，especially the 140-million-year-oldrainforest.

DwiSawung from the Indonesian Forum for Living Environment（WALHI） believes that at least threebasic problems have been ignored bythe Indonesian government： threatsto water systems and climate change，threats to flora and fauna， and threats of pollution and environmental damage.

What’s worse， local residents mightwitness their economic roots removed as cultivators， hunters， farmers， andfishermen are evicted from their wayof life because of development of a new capital.

Stella also fears that the heat willmake Nusantara an uncomfortableplace to reside. Closer to the equator，its temperature can sometimes reach40 degrees Celsius， and cars have tobe parked underground or in shade toprevent them from getting burnt up.To absorb such heat， many trees needto be planted in the new capital， likeSingapore has done.

But still， she does not reject thepossibility of moving to the new capital， as long as it is built as advertised， notonly because her work deals with thegovernment and private sector.

“I have been dying to save myselffrom the poor air quality in GreaterJakarta which has caused me materialand immaterial losses.”

But Stella will still have to waitbecause the first wave of moving willnot start until at least 2024， and thefinal mission will not be complete until at least 2045.