Climate Governance and China’s Role

Zhuang Guiyang

Global climate governance is an important agenda for China in the face of the drastic changes unseen in a century. After more than 30 years of hard work， Chinas understanding of the regularity of global climate governance and logic of action both become clear. A new international competition with carbon neutrality as the goal has already begun in the trade-off between individual rationality and collective rationality. Chinas active participation in the process of global climate governance demonstrates its sense of responsibility as a major country.

GLOBAL CLIMATE GOVERNANCE AS PUBLIC GOODS

As a typical global issue， climate change involves many subjects， and no country can stay safe alone. As a result， countries must rely on international cooperation to tackle climate change. They need to set up mechanisms of cooperation to resolve the conflicts between individual and collective rationality.

The emission right is usually regarded as the right to development. Setting emission reduction obligations for various countries is in essence making space for future carbon emissions. The ultimate goal of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to maintain the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a stable and safe level. However， with the understanding of the concept of carbon budget as well as that emission right is the right to development， countries have a zero-sum game mentality. As a result， the global climate negotiations have fallen into deadlocks for many times especially when the global carbon emission pattern were undergoing significant changes.

Characterized by global public field and global public goods， climate governance needs to solve the problems of cost and leadership while providing public goods for global climate governance. How to uphold the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and how to fairly share the costs of climate governance are both global issues that test the political wisdom of leaders of all countries.

The Kyoto Protocol， reached under the guidance of the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities， took the lead in providing legally binding greenhouse gas emission reduction obligations for developed countries. That is， the overall greenhouse gas emissions by all developed countries between 2008 and 2012 shall decrease by 5.2% compared with that of 1990. However， the Bush administration of the United States announced its refusal to ratify the Kyoto Protocol in March 2001， in excuse that emission reduction will harm the U.S. economy， theres no convincing scientific basis for global warming and the inaction of developing countries is unfair to the United States. Although the Kyoto Protocol finally entered into force on February 16th， 2005 after eight years， the position of the United States foreshadowed the unsuccessful outcome of the Copenhagen Climate Conference.

Along with the rapid growth of greenhouse gas emissions in emerging economies including China， India， Brazil， South Africa and Mexico， developed countries believed that all countries should take common responsibilities for climate change. The Copenhagen Conference on institutional arrangements for addressing climate change after 2012 did not succeed due to the top-down mentality of the negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol. Since then， it was very difficult to make progress in the negotiations， showing the infeasibility of the top-down model. As a result， the voice for changing the global climate governance system kept rising.

The 2015 Paris Climate Conference adopted a bottom-up model featuring autonomous contributions by each country to set targets for emission reduction， which contributed to a breakthrough in the traditional mechanism featuring allocating responsibilities. This model， fully taking into account the national circumstances of each party， conducive to mobilizing the widest range of participants to give full play to their advantages. However， with non-mandatory nature， the autonomous national contribution targets under the Paris Agreement can only be achieved through the fulfillment of the commitments by all parties， which makes it difficult to ensure that they are fully met ultimately.

LEADERSHIP CHANGES OF GLOBAL CLIMATE GOVERNANCE

In terms of greenhouse gas emission patterns， developed countries accounted for 68% and developing countries for 32% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 1990; by 2008， they were roughly equal， with developed countries accounting for 51% and developing countries for 49% of emissions. In terms of changes in emission trends， historical cumulative emissions in developed countries are high and emissions in developing countries are growing fast. Major changes in the landscape of global greenhouse gas emissions have largely increased the divergence between developed and developing countries on the core issues of the negotiations （e.g. responsibilities and obligations， financial issues， etc.）， and the gap in the leadership of climate negotiations has also widened.

While the new bottom-up climate governance mechanism under the Paris Agreement has eased the tit-for-tat situation between developed and developing countries， it has weakened global leadership and made the implementation of the Paris Agreement， which already lacked coercive power， less ambitious. Therefore， there is an urgent need for emissions players such as China， the United States and Europe to exercise leadership. Leadership by major powers is essentially an ability to influence collective cooperation and is necessary to drive consensus on global climate governance.

From the 1990s to 2008， the EU worked hard to build the global climate governance mechanism， set the negotiation agenda， formulate the negotiation rules， lead the direction of global governance and take the lead， driving global climate governance forward. In particular， despite the stalemate in 2001 when the United States announced its withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol， the EU remained steadfast in pushing forward the negotiation process of the Kyoto Protocol and its eventual entry into force in 2005. It was at that time when the EUs influence reached its peak and became a major leader in international climate negotiations and institutional building. However， after the global financial crisis in 2008 and the failure of the Copenhagen Conference， the EUs leadership hit rock bottom， and it was only with the Paris Agreement that its popularity rebounded. Yet， the leadership of global climate governance has changed from a standing-out EU to a U.S.-China-Europe tripod situation.

The United States played a leading role in climate governance before 2000. However， under the influence of its domestic politics， the United States remains reluctant to engage in the global climate governance system for years， playing a dragging role in the process. The Bush administrations rejection to ratify the Kyoto Protocol once drove the United States away from the core of the leadership in global climate governance. Although the Obama administration worked with China in promoting the conclusion of the Paris Agreement， the Trump administration subsequently announced the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement， which made the international community full of doubts about the U.S. capability to play a leading role in global climate governance. Later in 2021， the Biden administration announced the U.S. return to the Paris Agreement and included the climate issue in the core agenda of the U.S. diplomacy and national security. But as the U.S. climate and environmental policy choices are held hostage by domestic bi-partisan politics， the international communitys trust and reliance on it has struggled to rebound， reflecting the fact that true international leadership depends not only on policy pronouncements but also on practical action.

As a large developing country， Chinas voice in international climate negotiations is directly affected by the rising carbon emissions. The top-down mandatory emission reduction mechanism represented by the Kyoto Protocol failed to be accepted at the Copenhagen Conference， but pushed China to the center of the global climate governance stage.

In 2014， the China-U.S. Joint Statement on Climate Change made clear the goal of autonomous contributions and actively advocated that countries abandon the narrow thinking of a zero-sum game， making a historically significant contribution to breaking the impasse in the negotiations and to the success of the Paris Climate Conference.

TRADE AND TECHNOLOGICAL COMPETITION BEHIND GLOBAL CARBON NEUTRALITY

More than 130 countries and regions around the world have put forward timetables for carbon neutral， the achieving of which requires not only countries to accelerate emission reduction actions， but also rapid technological breakthroughs and fundamental changes in production and lifestyle. Fundamental changes will take place in the concept of global development， development model， development path and social civilization， and reshape the worlds political， economic and technological competition pattern to a great extent.

Since the beginning of 2020， the COVID-19 has caused a serious impact on the global economy. Countries have proposed energy conservation， emission reduction and sustainable development as important options for the green economic recovery plan. Under the influence of the current counter-globalization and the COVID-19 pandemic， the global industrial and value chains are set to undergo new changes， and a new international economic and trade structure with focus on green industries will gradually become the mainstream support to the development of the world economy in the future.

To achieve carbon neutrality， countries have entered the fast track to tackle climate change and develop a low-carbon economy. Whether climate change is regarded as a zero-sum game or a win-win opportunity for development， low-carbon competition among countries is inevitable. In December 2019， the European Commission published the European Green Agreement， proposing to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050， in an effort to reshape climate leadership and industrial competitiveness. The return of the Biden administration to the Paris Agreement has further intensified the global competition for a low-carbon economy. Given the global nature of greenhouse gas emissions， the EU and other developed economies have sought to implement a carbon border regulation mechanism （often referred to as carbon tariffs） to protect the competitiveness of their enterprises， on the pretext of carbon leakage.

From the perspective of the scientific and technological layout of carbon neutrality strategies in various countries， the development of a zero carbon energy system is the core of the strategic layout of each country. The International Energy Agency points out that 50% of the key technologies for achieving net zero emissions by 2050 are currently immature， and that investment in innovation in key technology areas such as global electrification， hydrogen energy， energy storage， bioenergy as well as carbon capture， utilization and storage （CCUS） is a must in the future. Traditional developed economies such as Europe， America and Japan have all increased their investment in green technology research and development. In the worlds low carbon transition， whoever has the technology will capture a larger market.

In terms of global green and low-carbon transition， China with advantages in market， industry and system has a solid industrial and ecological foundation， strong technical capabilities and rich human and scientific and technological resources， and has formulated a national strategy and action plan for carbon peak and carbon neutrality. In the journey to achieve the second Centenary Goal， China will， under the top-level design and overall coordination of the central government， promote the in-depth integration of digital technology and the real economy driven by innovation and green economy， and build a new production system based on green and low-carbon smart energy system， so as to realize the green and low-carbon transition of economic and production mode.

CHINAS CONTRIBUTION

General Secretary Xi Jinping stresses that to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality is not something others want us to do， but something we have to do ourselves. We should attach great importance to the profound impact of international rules on climate change and carry out all-round， in-depth and systematic research， so as to develop Chinas systematic， comprehensive and leading negotiation strategy.

President Xi Jinping made an official announcement at the General Debate of the 75th Session of the United Nations General Assembly on September 22， 2020 that China will strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. At a gloomy time when the world economy is heavily hit by the COVID-19， Chinas commitment has been hailed as the biggest climate ambition in the past decade. Japan， ROK， the United States， Indonesia， Russia， India and other countries have also pledged on carbon neutrality. Chinas commitment serves as a weathervane， demonstrating the determination and courage of the global green and low-carbon transition.

In recent years， China has allocated more than 1.2 billion yuan for South-South cooperation in response to climate change， and provided assistance and support to developing countries within the framework of South-South cooperation on climate change. In the context of the global trend to withdraw coal， China has emphasized that it will no longer undertake overseas coal power projects as an effort to support the development of green energy in the Belt and Road countries. As a leading country in addressing climate change， China solemnly promises to vigorously support the green and low-carbon development of energy in developing countries， increase investment in development resources， and focus on promoting cooperation in green development， demonstrating Chinas sense of responsibility to support green recovery and sustainable development in developing countries.

China is promoting carbon peak and carbon neutrality with the same logic at home and abroad， and defining the timetable， road map and construction map by building a “1+N” policy system. Developed countries achieved the carbon peak with a GDP per capita of over 20，000 U.S. dollars， an urbanization rate of over 70% and a service sector share of over 70%， while those of China in 2021 were 12，000 U.S. dollars， 64.72% and 53.3% respectively. China is still in the process of industrialization and urbanization. With only 30 years left for the transition from carbon peak to carbon neutrality， this is certainly a major test for China. In the process of global climate governance and international carbon neutrality， China should not only continue to firmly lead the global green and low-carbon transition， but also tell more about the great efforts and success stories of Chinas low-carbon development to the outside world.

General Secretary Xi Jinping has repeatedly stressed that mankind is a community with a shared future， and advocated that all countries should be deeply involved in global environmental governance and building a community of life on earth， and work together to make our world clean and beautiful. As a leader， participant and contributor to the development of global ecological civilization， China needs to focus on the modernization goal of harmonious coexistence between man and nature， explore a new paradigm of transition from industrial civilization to ecological civilization， constantly enrich and develop the advanced production system under ecological civilization， build a new development pattern featuring virtuous production methods and green， low-carbon and healthy lifestyles， and provide Chinese wisdom and solutions and make China's contributions to global sustainable development.

Zhuang Guiyang is Deputy Director and Research Fellow of Research Institute for Eco-civilization， Chinese Academy of Social Sciences