上海柑橘黑點病田間流行與降雨關系研究

蔣飛 張喜喜 肖小娥 李紅葉 祝增榮

摘要 自2009年起柑橘黑點病逐漸成為上海地區影響柑橘果實商品價值的最主要病害，嚴重制約上海市柑橘產業的效益。為了解該病的田間流行動態以及病害發生與降雨量的關系，2010年—2018年連續9年進行了病害發生動態調查和分析。結果表明，上海地區6月上旬至8月下旬是果實感病期，其中，6月中旬至7月中旬為發病高峰期;雨水是黑點病發生的必要條件，果實生長期不同階段的降雨參數，尤其是6月下旬的降雨量與病情指數密切相關。本文以病情發展的3個時間節點（7月15日、8月15日和9月10日）的病情指數為因變量，以這3個時間點之前各旬的降雨量、降雨日為自變量篩選變量建立了多元線性回歸方程，根據分析結果，采用6月下旬的降雨量等氣象因子建立的多元線性回歸方程，可以比較準確地預測7、8月中旬和9月10日即病害發展穩定期的田間病情。

關鍵詞 柑橘; 柑橘黑點病; 病害發生動態; 降雨量

中圖分類號： S436.66

文獻標識碼： A

DOI： 10.16688/j.zwbh.2020705

Abstract Since 2009， citrus melanose disease has gradually become the most important disease affecting the commercial value of fruits in Shanghai， and seriously restricted the benefit of citrus industry. In order to understand the epidemic dynamics of the disease in the citrus orchard and the relationship between the disease incidence and rainfall， the investigation and analysis of disease occurrence dynamics were carried out for nine consecutive years from 2010 to 2018. The results showed that the susceptible period of citrus fruit was from early June to late August， and the peak period of the disease incidence was from mid-June to mid-July. The rainfall was essential for the occurrence of the disease. The precipitation variables in different growth stages of fruits， especially the rainfall in late June， was closely related to the disease index. In this paper， The multiple linear regression equations were established according to disease index at three time points of disease development （July 15， August 15 and September 10） as the dependent variable， and the rainfall and rainfall days of each ten days before the three time points as independent variables to screen the parameters closely related to the change of disease index. The results showed that multiple linear regression equation established by meteorological factors such as rainfall in late June can accurately predict the disease development in the field in mid-July and Mid-August and September 10 when the disease development is stable.

Key words citrus; citrus melanose disease; epidemic dynamics; rainfall

柑橘黑點病（也稱沙皮病）是柑橘上的一種重要真菌性病害，在我國普遍發生[1]。上海地處中國柑橘種植適宜區北緣地帶，根據上海市農業農村委員會統計數據：2018年全市柑橘種植面積為0.4萬 hm2，露地種植以耐寒性較好的‘宮川’溫州蜜柑Citrus reticulata ‘Unshiu’為主，占全市種植面積90%以上。筆者調查發現，自2009年起，柑橘黑點病逐漸上升為上海地區柑橘的主要病害，果面的黑點和沙皮癥狀成為影響果實商品價值的重要因素。柑橘黑點病病原有性態為柑橘間座殼菌Diaporthe citri，無性態為柑橘擬莖點霉Phomopsis citri[2]。……