China Is Contributing Greatly to Increases in Global Imports

By Wei Hao

Recently， 2021 Report on the Development of Chinas Import （the Report） was officially issued. As the first comprehensive report on import trade in China， the report serves the major national strategy of actively expanding imports and the event of China International Import Expo （CIIE）. Since 2018， this annual report has been issued four times in line.

The Report is jointly developed by the Business School and China Institute of Education and Social Development of Beijing Normal University， which gives a statistical analysis on the imports of key products from important sources， utilizing micro data in great amount， and is mainly divided into six parts： summary， theoretical analysis， analysis by special topics， by regions， the influence by the epidemic and the outlook. Specifically， the report for 2021 includes（1） a theoretical analysis of the relations between actively expanding imports and building a new development pattern，（2） a comprehensive review of Chinese policies， such as overall import policy and its changes， industrial import policy， regional import policy， and import platforms， （3） a statistical analysis on imports of key products and in key regions in China， （4） an analysis of the development experiences and models of regional import trade in cities like Shenzhen， the largest city in terms of import trade in China， and Suzhou， the second largest， as well as in the central and western China like Chengdu and so on，（5） a systematic analysis of the impact by the epidemic of COVID-19 on Chinas import development and （6） the outlook for the import market in China.

Import trade will play a more important role in the new development pattern

As the report indicated， the role of import trade in the new development pattern will be further strengthened. In the new development pattern， the essence of the internal circulation as the mainstay is to make domestic economy bigger and stronger， and that of the dual circulation growth model in which internal circulation and international circulation promote each other is to make full use of international resources and international markets to serve domestic economic development， while to attach great importance to the stimulus of developing domestic economy to international markets. Actively expanding imports is an important part of Chinas new round of high-level opening-up. Specifically from the perspective of imports， for both internal circulation and mutual promoting dual circulations， imports will play an irreplaceable and growingly important role.

China contributed up to 27.7% of global import growth

It is revealed in the report that from 2010 to 2020， China contributed up to 27.7% of global import growth， much higher than that of the United States and the European Union. In one word， China has made a huge contribution to the develop-ment of global import market. Specifically， from 1950 to 2020， Chinas contribution was 11.6% and it was 0.6% between 1950 and 1977. In the period of 1978 to 1991， the contribution of China was 2.3%， and it was 5.3% in the period of 1992 to 2000. Since the entry to WTO， China further improved the contribution to the growth of world imports， which came to 12.1% from 2001 to 2009， and 27.7% in the period 2010 to 2020， much higher than that of the United States （18.3%）， the European Union（17.1%）， Germany （4.8%）， the Netherlands （3.3%）， South Korea （1.8%） and the United Kingdom （1.8%）， as well as Japan， France and Italy which recorded negative contributions at-2.5%， -1.2% and -2.7% respectively.

China was also the largest export market for 40 countries and regions

The report indicated that China is the largest export market for 40 countries and regions. In 2019， 210 countries and regions recorded data on exports to China. Of them， China was the largest export market for 40 countries and regions， the second largest for 25 countries and regions， the third largest for 16 countries and regions， the fourth largest for 16 countries and regions， and the fifth largest for 8 countries and regions. Generally speaking， China was a top five export market for 105 countries and regions.

China has been the second largest import market around the world for 12 consecutive years. In 2001， China was the 6th largest importer globally， and the rankings rose to 3rd in 2003 and to 2nd in 2009. Since 2009， China has been the worlds second largest importer for 12 consecutive years. In 2001， the worlds top 10 importing countries and regions in order were the United States， Germany， Japan， the United Kingdom， France， China， Italy， Canada， the Netherlands and Hong Kong， China， while in 2020 the top ten were the United States， China， Germany， Japan， the United Kingdom， the Netherlands， France， Hong Kong of China， South Korea and Italy， clearly reflecting that China had the greatest ranking changes， by rising four places.

China outshines others in global import market since the outbreak of COVID-19

According to the report， since the outbreak of the epidemic of COVID-19， Chinas had an outstanding performance in import market， compared to other countries and regions. In 2020， India was affected the most， and South Africa， the UK， EU， the United States and Japan were hit significantly， too. Specifically， in 2020， the imports of goods into India， South Africa， Japan and Brazil were cut by more than 2 digits， namely 23.22%， 21.8%， 11.9% and 10% respectively， while those of the UK， Singapore， the EU， South Korea， the United States and Russia decreased by 8.3%， 8.2%， 7.2%， 7.1%， 6.3% and 5.6% respectively. At the same time， China had a small decrease of 0.6% in 2020. In 2021， the import market in most countries and regions began to improve， with Chinas imports jumped by 34.9% in seven months from January to July 2021 from a year ago， while Brazil， Russia， the EU， South Korea， the United States and Singapore also made clear improvements in imports， too， at 30%， 29.4%， 28.4%， 26.1%， 23.8% and 20.8%， respectively. Meanwhile， the UK and Japans imports increased by 16.4% and 14.4% respectively.

In the first half of 2021， China was still the second largest importer around the world， with total imports of goods amounting to USD 1，270.45 billion， accounting for 12% of the global total， which was second only to the United States （13.1%）， but much higher than the shares of Japan， South Korea， the United Kingdom， Singapore， Russia， India， Brazil and South Africa， since these countries took a share of less than 4% in total in global imports of goods.

China is more helpful for 64 countries along the Belt and Road to increase exports

According to the report， China is playing an important role in the export market of 64 countries along the Belt and Road. Between 2014 to 2020， total imports from above 64 countries accounted for 27.72% of Chinas total imports， up from 24.68%.

The contribution of China to the total exports of 64 countries along the Belt and Road has been enlarged. From 2014 to 2020， the proportion of exports to China in the total exports from above 64 countries kept growing in general， to 9.23% from 5.96%.

It was reflected in the report that，in the export market of 64 countries along the Belt and Road， China is the largest importer of 13 countries in 2019， namely Iran， Indonesia， Iraq， Kuwait， Mongolia， Myanmar， Oman， Philippines， Russia， Saudi Arabia， Singapore， Turkmenistan， Yemen， and the second largest of 9 countries， including Laos， East Timor， Israel， Kazakhstan， Malaysia， Pakistan， Thailand， Ukraine， Vietnam. Besides， China was alto the third largest export market of 4 countries along the Belt and Road， and the fourth largest of 3 countries and the fifth largest of 4 countries.

Central and Eastern European countries are becoming larger exporters to China

On April 26th， 2012， the first China-CEE summit meeting was held in Warsaw， Poland， which officially launched China-CEE cooperation. Since the establishment of China-CEE cooperation mechanism in 2012， China has made great progress in cooperation with CEE countries in fields like trade， investment， engineering contracting， connectivity and so on， forming comprehensive， broad and multi-level cooperative relations. As the first year for China-CEE agricultural cooperation， in 2020 China hosted online China-CEE Expo for distinctive agricultural products and other events. From trade to agricultural cooperation to green development， China and Central and Eastern European countries are looking for opportunities to expand cooperation though facing challenges， and exploring innovative models， bringing China-CEE cooperation to a new stage of quality improvement and upgrading， and a brighter future.

The report also indicated the overall exports to China from CEE countries have increased. Between 2001 to 2020， the value of exports to China from CEE countries increased from USD 633 million to USD 26.725 billion， marking an increase of 41.21 times and an average annual growth rate of 21.77%. In detail， from 2001 to 2008， CEE exports to China kept grew at an ultra-high rate of 37.21% in average per year， followed by a high average annual growth rate of 22.23% between 2009 to 2014. In 2015， Chinas imports from CEE countries declined， but since 2016 the exports to China from CEE countries turned to grow again， and had an average annual growth rate of 15.67% by 2020.

According to the report， CEE countries are taking a larger share in Chinas import market. From 2001 to 2020， except 2004 and 2005， the share of CEE goods in Chinas total imports continued to rise， from 0.26% in 2001 to 1.3% in 2020.

Besides， China is playing a greater role in CEE export market. From 2001 to 2020， China took an increasing share in CEE export market almost year by year， from 0.33% in 2001 to an all-time high of 1.47% in 2020.

RCEP members contributed up to 37.72% exports to China

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership （RCEP） is an agreement developed by 15 members including China， Japan， South Korea， Australia， New Zealand and ten ASEAN countries. RCEP was initiated in 2012 and the agreement was successfully signed after eight years of negotiations at the fourth RCEP summit on November 15， 2020. It will enter into force on January 1， 2022.

According to the report， exports to China from other RCEP member countries are on the rise in general. From 2012 to 2020， the value of Chinas imports from other RCEP member countries increased from USD 632.808 billion to USD 775.396 billion， with an average annual growth rate of 2.57%. In 2012 and 2013， exports from other RCEP countries to China were on the rise， but declined year by year between 2014 and 2016. Since 2017， China has imported more and more from other RCEP countries and the import value reached a historical high of USD 775.396 billion in 2020.

It was learned from the report that other RCEP countries are becoming larger exporters to China. In 2020， other RCEP countries contributed as high as 37.72% of Chinas total imports， up from 34.8% in 2012.

Besides， China has become a larger export market for other RCEP countries. In 2012， 17.33% of total exports from other RCEP countries went to China， and in 2020， the fig- ure came a new high of 21.39%.

Cross-border e-commerce retail imports in China topped RMB 100 billion

According to the report， the retail import market of Chinese cross-border e-businesses is also developing quickly， topping RMB 100 billion in 2020， up from RMB 56.6 billion in 2017. In 2020， the retail import market of cross-border e-commerce industry in China topped RMB 100 billion for the first time， up by 8.9% from that in 2019.

The retail import market for cross-border e-businesses in China continues to grow. With improving Internet infrastructure， upgrading consumption， and quickly developing logistics industry in China， cross-border e-commerce ushers in a booming domestic retail import market. In 2020， the user number of cross-border e-commerce imports jumped to 140 million， equal to more than 9 times of that in 2014 （15 million）. The number came to 148 million in the first half of 2021， and is expected to reach 160 million by the end of this year.

In March 2021， six governmental departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued Notice on Expanding Cross-border E-commerce Retail Imports Pilot and Implementing the Supervision Requirements， expanding cross-border e-commerce retail imports pilot to all cities （and regions） where there are pilot free trade zones， integrated pilot zones for cross-border e-commerce， integrated free trade zones， import trade promotion innovation demonstration zones， and bonded logistics centers （B）. In the future， above cities （regions） can carry out online bonded imports （customs supervision code 1210） in accordance with the notice， after local customs confirm that the regulatory requirements are met. It can be expected that this policy will further promote the development of cross-border e-commerce retail imports in China.

（Author： professor at the Business School of Beijing Normal University， Director of National Import Research Center， and Editor-in-Chief of 2021 Report on the Development of Chinas Imports）