The Future of Communication通信的未來

維夫·埃文斯 韓聰

Future tech and communication

Predicting the future is even thornier when considering human communication. From the perspective of technological innovation， we are living in a digital age： technology is transforming the ways we communicate with one another， and interact with the world around us. Meanwhile， other technological pipe dreams1 that were once only the preserve of science fiction are now becoming reality.

For instance， John Anderton， the character played by Tom Cruise in the 2002 movie Minority Report—originally a short story by Philip K. Dick2—wears a data glove， providing a sophisticated gesture-based interface system. But touch-based computing is now de rigueur3， with the pinch， pull， and swipe features of Apple iPads and iPhones having led the way in the 2000s. In computer gaming， the Wii in 2006， and later， Microsoft Kinect consoles developed similar ways of interacting and controlling virtual characters and actions. Devices such as these are surely but a prelude of what is to come.

MIT computer scientist John Underkoffler predicted， in his 2010 TED talk， that virtual touch-based computing， à la4 Minority Report， is the future of human-computer interfaces5.

Perhaps an even more exciting area of research， one that will transform how we communicate with computers over the longer term， is so-called brain-computer interfaces6. In the 1995 film Johnny Mnemonic—a cyberpunk7 action thriller， based on the short story by William Gibson8—the protagonist， played by Keanu Reeves， wears a cybernetic brain implant that stores information that can be extracted.

Todays research on brain-computer interfaces works on a related idea： the brain makes use of electrical signals—an electrical code—to transmit and process information. The idea is that as the brain runs on electrical signals， and assuming these can be accurately read， then the signals should allow us to communicate with external devices via the transmission of electrical impulses directly from the brain. For instance， it should be possible， at least in theory， to harness the brain signals that move your arm and hand to control a robotic arm to， say， pick up a cup of coffee.

Research of this kind is ongoing. Cochlear implants， allowing the hard of hearing9 to hear， are currently the most widely available use for this technology. The principle enables brain signals to communicate with the implant， thereby overcoming the damaged part of the ear. In the future， it may be possible for implants in the brain to allow us to communicate directly with and control a wide array of devices， using the power of thought alone， as advocated by Elon Musks Neuralink project， which proposes embedding microchips into the human brain.

Computers and smartphones now come with fixed cameras as standard. This means that we can see the person we are talking to， in real time. The next step， perhaps， is the so-called telepresence10 robot. These are mobile units that host a camera and speaker that can be controlled remotely by someone whose voice and image can be projected. And the virtual person can not only see， via their remote camera， but also follow around and otherwise interact with the person with whom they are conversing. The scope for teleconferencing， and ‘remote tours of a specific venue， such as visiting a real-estate proposition， a new factory， or a construction site， are obvious.

Immediacy and reach： The transformational nature of digital modes of communication

It is doubtless true that the digital age has transformed the nature of human communication. Nowhere is this more evident than in terms of the immediacy and reach afforded by digital forms of communication.

In terms of immediacy， social media updates and instant messaging enable instantaneous communication. Prior to the advent of digital communication technology， communication with those with whom we were not physically co-located required travel， or correspondence via snail mail11.

And in terms of reach， the immediacy of our communications reaches an unprecedented number of people.

The notion of reach is especially striking， as digital technology is transforming the nature of the social networks with whom we can communicate. In analogue communication， a social network can be thought of as having a limit that relates to Dunbars Number12： around 150. This is a cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships—proposed by Robin Dunbar， who found a correlation between primate brain size and average social group size.

In contrast， in digital communication， our social network is only constrained， in principle， by the number of people who have access to the internet—around 3.2 billion people and counting.

New systems of communication： Emoji

In addition to transforming the nature of our communicative reach， the digital age is also providing opportunities and innovations in terms of new forms and systems of communication. And while the underlying principles of communication remain fundamentally the same， how we communicate is and will continue to be impacted as a consequence.

A salient case in point， in the early part of the 21st century has been the emergence of emoji as a global means of communication. In my book， The Emoji Code， I made the following argument. Technology is not changing the cooperative impulse that underpins communication. Nor is it changing the principles that undergird13 systems of communication. Rather， technology provides new avenues and opportunities; it provides new channels of communication.

But in certain respects， these channels can be impoverished， initially at least， in terms of current systems of communication. Face-to-face spoken interaction is multimodal. It is a fully immersed experience， in which participants communicate using the full panoply of modes， and make use of linguistic， paralinguistic14， kinesic， and visual systems of communication. Patterns of eye gaze and prosody convey different aspects of social meaning that fill out the linguistic meaning.

In contrast， abbreviated textspeak is impoverished in the multimodality stakes. And this is where emoji has come into its own; it has begun to allow digital communication to replicate some of the non-verbal communicative cues available to face-to-face interaction. It is not that emoji represents a step-change15 in communication; rather， and somewhat more prosaically， emoji is providing an inevitable step in plugging a gap in a new channel of communication： the digital.

Without emoji， part of what provides a well-rounded communicative message is missing. And given that textspeak is a visual form of representation， it is inevitable that pictographic representations should help provide some of the paralinguistic and kinesic cues.

Emoji provides a starting point to provide a multimodal system of communication， fit for purpose， in the digital age. We might speculate on how emoji will develop—in the short term， animated， avatar-like emojis might be one way in which textspeak can be further enhanced by multimodal cues. Facial expressions and gestures are what make us who we are： lets see it， and not be afraid of seeing it， in emoji！

Whatever the next stage in the evolution of emoji and， indeed， other emerging systems of digital communication， the driver is， ultimately， the cooperative intelligence that makes us the unparalleled communicators we are. Emoji makes us more effective communicators in our 21st-century world of communication.

未來科技與通信

就人類通信而言，預測未來更為棘手。從技術創新的角度來看，我們正生活在一個數字時代：技術正在徹底改變我們彼此交流的方式，以及我們與周圍世界互動的方式。同時，其他曾經只存在于科幻小說中的技術幻想，如今正在變成現實。

例如，2002年的電影《少數派報告》（其原著是菲利普·K. 迪克的短篇小說）中，湯姆·克魯斯扮演的角色約翰·安德頓戴著一副數據手套，這副手套提供了一種依靠手勢的復雜接口系統。但如今，觸摸式計算已成為必備功能，蘋果平板電腦和手機的捏、拉及滑動功能在21世紀前10年居于領先地位。在電腦游戲領域，2006年的Wii游戲機，以及后來的微軟Kinect體感控制器都開發出類似方式，控制虛擬角色和動作并與之交互。這類設備無疑只是未來發展的前奏。

麻省理工學院的計算機科學家約翰·昂德科夫勒在其2010年的TED演講中預言，類似《少數派報告》中的虛擬觸摸式計算是人機接口的未來。

或許還有一個更令人興奮的研究領域，從長遠來看將完全改變我們與計算機的通信方式，那就是所謂的腦機接口。1995年的電影《非常特務》是一部賽博朋克動作驚悚片，改編自威廉·吉布森的短篇小說，其中，基努·里維斯扮演的主角戴著一個控制大腦的植入物，可提取的信息儲存其中。

如今對腦機接口的研究基于一個相關想法：大腦利用電信號（一種電代碼）傳輸和處理信息。這個想法就是，由于大腦依靠電信號運轉，假設這些信號可被準確讀取，那么這些信號會讓我們通過直接從大腦傳輸電脈沖與外部設備通信。例如，至少在理論上，應該有可能利用移動手臂和手的大腦信號來控制機械臂，比如說，拿起一杯咖啡。

這類研究在持續進行中。讓有聽力障礙的人聽得見的人工耳蝸是這項技術目前最廣泛的應用。該原理讓大腦信號可與植入物通信，從而解決耳朵受損部位的問題。埃隆·馬斯克的神經鏈接項目提議將微芯片植入人腦，未來，就像該項目所提倡的那樣，腦內植入物可能讓我們只需使用思維的力量，就能直接與大量設備通信并控制這些設備。

現在，固定攝像頭是計算機和智能手機標配。這意味著可以實時看到正和我們說話的人。下一步，也許就是所謂的遠程呈現機器人。這是帶有攝像頭和揚聲器的移動裝置，能夠由某人投射語音和圖像遠程控制。利用這些移動裝置的遠程攝像頭，虛擬人不僅可以看到與之交談的人，還可以跟隨對方并進行互動。進行視頻電話會議，“遠程”參觀特定場所，例如考察房地產規劃、參觀新工廠或建筑工地，可施展的余地顯而易見。

即時性和可及性：數字通信模式的變革本質

毫無疑問，數字時代已經全然改變了人類通信的本質。這一點在數字通信形式帶來的即時性和可及性上體現得最為明顯。

在即時性上，社交媒體快訊和即時信息讓即時通信成為可能。在數字通信技術出現之前，與不在一處的人交流需要長途奔波，或通過蝸牛郵件聯系。

在可及性上，我們的通信即時性可及人數前所未有。

數字技術正在徹底改變我們與之通信的社交網絡的本質，所以可及性觀念尤其引人注目。在模擬通信中，可以認為一個社交網絡的極限與鄧巴數字有關：大約150人。這是由羅賓·鄧巴提出的一個認知極限，即一個人可以與多少人維持穩定社會關系。鄧巴發現靈長類動物的大腦尺寸與平均社群規模之間有相關性。

相比之下，在數字通信中，我們的社交網絡原則上只受到可訪問互聯網人數的限制——大約32億人，數字還在不斷增加。

新的通信系統：表情符號

除了完全改變我們通信可及性的本質之外，數字時代還在新的通信形式和系統方面提供了契機和創新。雖然通信的基礎原則基本保持不變，但我們的交流方式正在并將繼續受到影響。

舉個突出的例子，21世紀早期，表情符號作為一種全球性通信方式出現。我在《表情符號代碼》一書中，提出了以下論點：技術并不改變構成通信基礎的合作沖動，也不改變支撐通信系統的原則;相反，技術提供了新的途徑和機會、新的通信渠道。

但在某些方面，就當前通信系統而言，這些渠道至少在一開始可能單調貧乏。面對面的口頭交流是多模態的。那是一種完全沉浸式的體驗，參與者使用各種各樣的方式進行交流，并利用語言、副語言、身勢和視覺交流系統。視線和韻律的模式傳達不同方面的社交意義，補全了語言意義。

相比之下，論及多模態，短信縮略語顯得單調貧乏。這就是表情符號的用武之地;表情符號已經開始讓數字通信得以復制面對面交流中的一些非語言交際提示。并不是說表情符號代表通信的巨變;相反，更通俗點兒說，表情符號必然是在填補新型通信渠道的一個缺口：數字缺口。

沒有表情符號，就無法提供全面的交際信息。鑒于短信用語是一種視覺表現形式，繪畫文字表現形式必將有助于提供一些副語言和身勢提示。

表情符號為適用于數字時代的多模態通信系統開辟了起點。我們可以推測表情符號將如何發展——在短期內，類似于頭像的動畫表情符號可能通過多模態提示進一步豐富短信語言。面部表情和手勢讓我們展現自己：讓我們在表情符號中看到自己，不怕看到自己！

事實上，無論表情符號以及其他新興數字通信系統的下一個發展階段如何，最終驅動力都是合作智慧，它讓我們成為絕佳的交際者。在21世紀的通信世界中，表情符號讓我們的溝通更有效。

（譯者為“《英語世界》杯”翻譯大賽獲獎者;單位：新鄉市第十六中學）