World Security Situation in 2020: Turbulence, Disorder and Overlaying Risks

Tang Yongsheng

Associate Dean， School of National Security， PLA National Defense University

2020 is a year of important significance in the unfolding of human history： the COVID-19 outbreak has greatly accelerated the historical process of profound changes that had already gone in the depth. As the pandemic continues to spread， global politics is faced with still more risks and challenges， traditional security issues being compounded and intermingling with non-traditional ones， international security turbulences intensifying， and uncertainties increasing. International security governance faces new tough issues and new opportunities， which makes it necessary for countries， and especially major countries to strengthen coordination and cooperation and join hands in preventing major security risks， and actively promoting the evolutionary remodeling of the world security order to achieve lasting peace and prosperity.

International Security

Mechanisms Being Damaged，

Major Country Security

Cooperation Suffering Setbacks

Under the COVID-19 impact， many countries have strengthened self-protection whereas influenced by domestic politics， and some of the countries tend to be more conservative in foreign policy. Traditional security concepts like unilateralism， alliance in confrontation， and zero-sum game regain tendency， making it more difficult for effective international coordination， whereby international security cooperation is impeded. The Trump administration has enhanced its “America First” principle， withdrawing from relevant international treaties， complicating already complex world security situation， and giving rise to major setbacks to the construction of international security mechanisms.

Uncertainties increase for the future development of world situation， the strategic anxiety of some of the countries is on the rise， their domestic conservative forces are expanding， and all this have led to twists and turns in major country relations and even continued rising fever of competition between major countries. In 2020， the COVID-19 pandemic that happened all of a sudden has intensified the strained relations between China and the United States （US）. In face of the COVID-19 impact， not only did the Trump administration fail to enhance cooperation with China， it also has highlighted its definition of China as an adversary， enhancing strategic obstruction of the country in technology， economy， geopolitics and ideology. In May 2020， US government published United States Strategic Approach to the Peoples Republic of China， officially launching its whole of government competition strategy with China; in September， US Department of Defense released its report Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China 2020， lopsidedly exaggerating the construction and development of the Chinese military， and playing up the so-called “China threat”. The US-Russia competition is in the main arms and geopolitical contest， and especially the US has given priority to strengthening military deployment in forward areas to Russia. For instance， it signed a military cooperation agreement with Poland in August， increasing the number of US troops stationed in Poland. During the pandemic， though the US has maintained active communication with Russia on important security issues， the chasm between both sides is so deep that there are no conditions for rebooting US-Russia relations.

Facing the development and changes in international security situation， European countries and Indo-Pacific countries like Japan， India and Australia have all made corresponding policy adjustments. EU-Russia relations has relaxed for a period of time and Germany pressed ahead with dialogue and cooperation with Russia against US pressure. In 2020， the US and Europe have continued to wrestle over the Nord Stream II natural gas project， and since August the US has continued to increase its sanctions on the participating companies in the project. This US conduct has been met with joint protests of 24 EU member states， which accused US government of violating international law with the sanctions. In December， after one year of quietude owing to US sanctions， the Nord Stream II natural gas project restarted. On defense issues， the Trump administration has constantly put pressure on NATO allies on defense spending and readjusted US military deployment in Europe， reducing the number of US troops in Germany. The differences within the NATO are difficult to resolve： not only did Turkey blow hot and cold between the NATO and Russia， major European countries have also fully recognized the importance of independent European defense with France and Germany being more active in pushing for the preparations of organizing an European Army in an attempt to rid dependence on the US and the NATO. Positive changes have happened to relations among East Asia countries. After the official signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership（RCEP）， the consensus between China， Japan and South Korea for reaching a trilateral free trade agreement on a still higher level is correspondingly on the increase. At present， though there are separation tendencies to varying degrees between US-EU， US-Japan and US-South Korea alliance relations， as the status of the US as a hegemon has not been shaken in a fundamental way， and some of the countries still rely highly on the US in political， security and economic areas， the phenomenon remains for them to be less than principled and dance to the tune of the US in their foreign policy.

Profound changes of the world go into depth， turbulences intensify in the international situation， and the international security mechanisms will undergo severe tests. As profound changes happen， tough security issues increase， tension between major countries intensifies， and all this cannot be resolved at least in the short run， which to a degree may lead to further deterioration of global political environment. Increasing regional turbulences and global challenges result in still more severe international security situation， and put forward increasingly urgent demand for international security governance， among which it is increasingly important to strengthen dialogue and coordination between major countries. Space development and defense capabilities， cyberattack and defense capabilities， and biodefense capabilities as important compliment to traditional strategic capabilities based on nuclear deterrence play a more and more salient role in the maintenance of strategic stability. Furthermore， a new wave of technological innovation is gathering strength， which will provide various countries with important driving force for economic and social development， and correspondingly improve their state governance capacity.

Competition on Military Technology Heating Up， Profound Changes in the Form of War Being Conceived

Throughout history of international relations， whenever important innovation and breakthrough are achieved in science and technology， it will greatly expand the realm and space of activities of human practice， and at the same time greatly enrich the connotation and denotation of national security. In the shadow of COVID-19 pandemic， major countries have not slowed down in technological innovation but rather continued to increase input in key areas such as information， artificial intelligence （AI）， space， deep sea， polar region and biosciences， and promote rapid progress in key areas and key technologies. These efforts will continue to extend the feelers of human exploration to virtue frontier， intelligence frontier and high， deep， far and micro frontier， which will guide the development of the form of war and its strategic thinking and necessarily bring about profound changes in international security situation.

Persevering with being innovation driven， the US gives priorities to the development of subversive technologies， and has in recent years put special emphasis on integrated innovation that is interdisciplinary and cross-domain， continuing to increase input in R & D and experiment， to renew and deploy new types of weaponry （such as fifth generation fighter aircraft， innovative nuclear submarine， new type of torpedo and unmanned smart military hardware）， and to promote state of the art information technology within the framework of digital modernization strategy. Concerned countries have also advanced the development and upgrading of competition capacity， especially focusing on the areas of information technology， space presence， strategic deterrence and counter deterrence.

Centering on upgrading strategic deterrence and counter deterrence capabilities， major countries have continued to increase input， among which improving the performance of hypersonic missile is a focus of competition. Both the US and Russia have taken the development of hypersonic weaponry for a key means to achieve military superiority and strategic initiative. In the Fiscal Year 2020 only， US input in research and developing hypersonic military hardware alone reaches US$2.6 billion. In October 2020， US military came up with US Navys new “Manhattan Project”， seeking to use technologies like AI and machine learning （ML） to enhance capabilities for distributive maritime operations. At the same time， the US has kept readjusting deployment to strengthen nuclear capabilities. The purpose of its withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces （INF） Treaty is to get rid of institutional constraint on developing medium-range ballistic missiles. Also in October 2020， Russia successfully tested a Zircon hypersonic missile， which had a maxim speed of Mach 8 and could be launched from several kinds of warships， greatly improving its strategic deterrence capabilities. The damage to mutual strategic trust between major countries has already induced a situation of escalation in competition over missile defense capabilities， and both the US and Russia have increased input to accelerate the development of missile defense technology and capabilities， and been seeking to quicken the pace of network organizing for missile defense systems with the support of diplomatic and military cooperation.

Major countries have also increased their input in the realm of space， and militarization of space has been accelerated. the epidemic outbreak has not affecting relevant space launching activities. In December 2020， the US released a new National Space Policy report， making clear its national security objectives for space activities and aiming to strengthen US advantage in the realm of space. Signs illustrate that space military race has begun to heat up， the development speed of near space hypersonic weaponry by the US and Russia calling for special attention.

It is generally believed that AI will bring about a new round of industrial revolution. The US takes the lead in advancing AI militarization， and the US military avows to seek military superiority by increasing input in AI and ML. Russias implementation of AI development program is led by its Ministry of Defense. China has also elevated AI to be part of its national strategy， promoting the development and application of new-generation AI. However， in regard to AI development level at present， there is a gap between China and Russia on the one hand and the US on the other.

Conflicts for Geostrategic

Contest Being Incessant with Huge Latent Risks

Tightening international security situation leads to rising strategic anxiety for some of the countries， even to the extent of being in a hurry to divert the attention of the general public from their mishandling of the COVID pandemic to the outside world， deliberately intensifying contradictions and creating conflicts. The US and Russia are alternately on the offensive; the US doubles down its efforts in advancing its Indo-Pacific strategy; regions including the Middle East are under continued turbulence; conflicts relapse between India and Pakistan; and there are signs of intensifying geo contests.

On the Syrian issue， at present the Syrian Civil War has basically come to an end， but the country faces difficult problems of postwar reconstruction， for the solution to which it is necessary to strike a balance between all major forces. Though the US has pulled out its main force from the country， it keeps holding several military bases and can continue to have some influence there. Russia has played a key role in the process of ending the Syrian Civil War and become an important balancing force in the Middle East region. However， the “power vacuum” left by the US pullout from Syria is open not only to Russia， Turkey too is very active there， making military intervention in Syria and attempting to expand its own interests. Countries also active in regional security are Iran， Israel， Turkey and Saudi Arabia， which have taken frequent military actions and jointly pushed forward the evolution of the Middle East geo situation. Besides， with US support， Israel has established diplomatic ties with Bahrain， the UAE， Sudan and Morocco， which can be regarded as a major breakthrough in Israeli relations with the Arab world.

On the Iranian nuclear issue， the US has withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action （JCPOA） and restored and continued to increase its sanctions on Iran. At the beginning of 2020， Qasem Soleimani， commanding general of Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps–Quds Force， was assassinated by the US， being a landmark event marking the drastic change in the Iran situation and the Middle East situation as a whole and fully illustrating the brutality of the Middle East geo contest， and serious tension， for a period of time， happened to the Middle East situation. Before it， even in face of US sanctions， Iran was able to exercise restraint and expressed that it would remain in the JCPOA framework rather than restart its nuclear process. However， after the assassination of Soleimani， it became beyond any doubt very difficult to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. In June 2020， Irans nuclear facilities suffered a surprise attack by an unidentified force， further intensifying the already tense regional situation. By November 2020， Irans top nuclear scientist Fakhrizadeh was shot dead， which brought still greater uncertainty to the future of the JCPOA and took the evolution of the Middle East situation in a more complicated direction.

In the heartland of the Eurasian continent， a war broke out between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh issue， being yet another typical war in the region following the Russia-Georgia conflict in 2008 and the Ukrainian crisis of 2014， inflicting thousands of casualties to both sides， and applying smart weaponry like drones. As a war between two small countries， not only did it have profound geopolitical background， it has also to a degree given proof to the fact that the form of war is undergoing change. Under the pandemic， the US did not let lose its efforts of military deployment in Russias neighborhood， continuing to strengthen military reconnaissance and containment activities against Russia in three fronts of the Arctic， Central and East Europe， and the Black Sea， and continuing to keep pressure on Russia. In March 2020， the NATO accepted North Macedonia as a member state， and in June it recognized Ukraine as an Enhanced Opportunities Partner.

For a period of time， China has persisted with the mode of benefit increment in developing relations with neighboring countries， promoted the construction of community of shared interests and community with a shared future， and thus helped bring about stabilizing momentum in its neighborhood security situation. However， the US has gradually switched its role from mainly supporting and conniving regional countries in dispute with China to making trouble for the country to mainly taking the front in putting pressure on China， and as a result， there are great interferences in Chinas neighborhood security environment. Indias China policy had retrogressed， which once gave rise to tension in China-India border areas. Though Japan also bears US pressure， it announced to terminate the deployment of Aegis Ashore anti-missile systems on June 15， 2020， revealing that it has more diversified strategic considerations. There is absence of major fluctuation in the situation of Korean peninsula， which has not come out of an important sensitive period either. To avoid major reversal in the peninsula situation， the urgency of political solution to the peninsula issue increases further. The situation across the Taiwan Strait tends to be complex and changeable. It is the overall tendency of US policy towards China under the Trump administration to play the card of Taiwan by changing it from a hidden card of strategic ambiguity to an exposed one of strategic clarity. To this end， the Trump administration has constantly enhanced its intervention in the situation across the Taiwan Strait， of which making more Taiwan related laws and increasing arms sales to Taiwan are concrete embodiments. At present， “Taiwan independence” separatist forces have gained upper hand in the island politics， indicating the complexity of the Taiwan issue and the difficulty of its solution.

Increased Uncertainty Risks

Calling for Move Effective International Security Governance

As profound changes happen to the world， traditional security issues and untraditional ones complicate， intermingle， and mutually interconvert， furthering disorder and uncertainties in international security situation， on top of which local conflicts escalate one after another， and international security governance faces new tough issues. It fully illustrates that there are more risks residing in the profound changes. Among others， the largest crisis is that the old international system is expiring whereas a new international system cannot simply come about， and in such a transitional period all kind of contradictions and conflicts are piling on one another. The COVID-19 pandemic has considerably accelerated the evolution of international power structure and international system， and with increasing factors， players and ways to affect the international process， international security situation is increasingly complicated.

In the COVID-19 pandemic， some of the regional hotspot issues have not cooled down， but rather there are signs of aggravating tension and overlaying risks， which shows the great disorder in international security governance. In the Middle East region， international terrorism has been managed but not ended. A full decade after the “Arab Spring”， the regional situation is more confusing， with extremism not toppling over even dead， civil strives not being quelled， and a large number of refugees being displaced. Though a great deal has been achieved in the fight against terrorism in Syria， political soil for the subsistence of extremist organizations is not removed. In Latin-America， Chile， Ecuador， and Bolivia successively fell into intensified political strives， giving proof to the predicament of difficult problems for governance. In Sahel region of Africa， security situation remains serious， cross-border issues like human trafficking， illegal arms trade， narcotics， smuggling， and refugees intermingling， and overlaying with the spread of the pandemic， intensifying a humanitarian crisis.

Even in Western countries， economic and social development has reached bottleneck， inherent defects of the original governance model being thrown in the limelight. Impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic， US society is torn apart even further， with increasing racial contradictions and rising extremism. Not only does Europe see its economy being seriously held back by the COVID-19 outbreak， the process of European integration has also suffered a serious setback owning to the completion of Brexit by the United Kingdom （UK）. Fiscal deficit of the US has reached unprecedented level， which not only means that the pressure for devaluation of the Dollar is steeply high and rising but also may bring about unpredictable risks to the global financial system. As international financial risks run high， the World Bank （WB） and the International Monetary Fund （IMF） send the warnings that the global economy will undergo severe downslide， and economic difficulties will necessarily lead to more security challenges.

As destabilizing factors increase， international security governance is faced with a host of difficulties， for which an important reason is that the US keeps reducing the international responsibility it had taken over the years， and furthermore concerned countries are burdened with domestic affairs， all this resulting in increasing imbalance between demand and supply of international security governance. In face of growing new demand for international security governance， all countries， especially major countries， should enhance necessary and effective coordination and cooperation， searching for precautions against important security risks， and actively advancing evolutionary remodeling of the international security order for global peace and prosperity. International relations should evolve and the world needs a resilient， flexible and open system to keep peace in a geopolitical era of more complicity and fiercer competition.

It is unimaginable to cope with a far reaching major crisis like the COVID-19 without extensive international cooperation. Faced with global threats， every country should perform its due responsibilities to be free from the bondage of narrow-mindedness of a small sort of politicians. As the international system evolves in a profound way， the nature of relations between countries is undergoing important changes and it is anachronistic to choose between cooperation and antagonism or go by winner-take-all. So is it also true for China-US relations. It is a very arduous task to build mutual strategic trust between China and the US， which requires a rather long process of interaction and needs sufficient strategic patience. At the present stage， both countries can work more on building conflict control mechanisms and advancing mutual strategic guarantee. As there is no unchangeable one-way traffic for major country relations， ultimately China-US relations can be adapted to a changing world and make a choice in line with the orientation of historical development.

International security situation 2020 is turbulent and， with frequent conflicts and crises， time and again sends alert that safeguarding international security should not be limited to coping with and preventing conflict and war only but rather more actively construct fundamental support for peace and strike a balance between supply of security institutions and practical demand. Only by building more extensive consensus， advancing active and effective security cooperation and promoting reform and innovation on international security governance can the international community find ways and solutions to resolving tension and disputes， and quelling war havoc and conflicts， and can it endeavor to achieve sustainable development and sustainable peace that is of universal significance.