US Life Expectancy Drops Dramatically Due To COVID-19美國(guó)人預(yù)期壽命因疫情大減

李怡瑩

Its the largest drop in life expectancy in at least 40 years.這是至少40年來(lái)預(yù)期壽命的最大降幅。

U.S. life expectancy just dropped by more than a year—the largest decline in decades—as a result of the sheer number of deaths from COVID-19， according to estimates from a new study.

The study researchers project that， due to the COVID-19 pandemic， the average U.S. life expectancy in 2020 will drop by 1.13 years， bringing it to 77.48 years， according to the study， published Thursday （Jan. 14） in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Thats the largest single-year decline in life expectancy in at least 40 years， and it would bring the countrys life expectancy down its lowest level since 2003， the researchers said.

Life expectancy in the U.S. rarely declines， and when it does， it makes headlines. Most recently， U.S. life expectancy declined by 0.1 years in 2015， 2016 and 2017—a trend that was attributed to rises in “deaths of despair，” including drug overdose and suicide. The new estimated decline due to COVID-19 is 10 times greater.

Whats more， the study showed even larger declines in 2020 among Black and Latino communities， which have been hit particularly hard by the pandemic. Overall， nearly 400，000 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S.， according to the Johns Hopkins virus dashboard.

The study projected life expectancy for Black people will drop by 2.1 years， to 72.78 years， and life expectancy for Latino people will drop by 3.05 years， to 78.77 years. In contrast， the life expectancy for white people is projected to decline by 0.68 years to 77.84 years.

“Our study analyzes the effect of this exceptional number of deaths on life expectancy for the entire nation， as well as the consequences for marginalized groups，” study co-author Theresa Andrasfay， a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Southern California， said in a statement. “The COVID-19 pandemics disproportionate effect on the life expectancy of Black and Latino Americans likely has to do with their greater exposure through their workplace or extended family contacts， in addition to receiving poorer health care， leading to more infections and worse outcomes.”

The researchers estimated U.S. life expectancy at birth using four scenarios—one in which the COVID-19 pandemic didnt happen， and three scenarios that used COVID-19 death projections for 2020 from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

The larger reductions in life expectancy for Black and Latino populations was in part due to “a disproportionate number of deaths at younger ages for these groups，” study co-author Noreen Goldman， a professor of demography and public affairs at Princeton University， said in the statement. “These findings underscore the need for protective behaviors and programs to reduce potential viral exposure among younger individuals who may not perceive themselves to be at high risk.”

Its important to note that life expectancy at birth is an estimate of how long a population of people would live if they were to experience the death rates seen in a given period （in this case， in 2020）， the authors said.

Although COVID-19 vaccines may significantly reduce transmission this year， the researchers dont anticipate life expectancy to immediately bounce back in 2021.

“While the arrival of effective vaccines is hopeful， the U.S. is currently experiencing more daily COVID-19 deaths than at any other point in the pandemic，” Andrasfay said. “Because of that， and because we expect there will be long-term health and economic effects that may result in worse mortality for many years to come， we expect there will be lingering effects on life expectancy in 2021.”

經(jīng)過(guò)最新的一項(xiàng)研究估計(jì)，美國(guó)的預(yù)期壽命僅下降了一歲多，卻是幾十年來(lái)最大的一次降幅，這是因?yàn)樾滦凸跔畈《痉窝自斐扇藛T的大量死亡。

根據(jù)1月14日發(fā)表在《美國(guó)科學(xué)科學(xué)院院刊》上的研究，研究人員預(yù)測(cè)由于新型冠狀病毒的影響，在2020年美國(guó)平均預(yù)期壽命將會(huì)下降1.13歲，達(dá)到77.48歲。研究人員表示這是至少40年來(lái)預(yù)期壽命最大的一次單年下降，這將會(huì)使國(guó)家的預(yù)期壽命降低至2003年以來(lái)的最低水平。

美國(guó)的預(yù)期壽命幾乎不下降，而當(dāng)它下降的時(shí)候就登上了頭條新聞。以近幾年為例，美國(guó)的預(yù)期壽命在2015年、2016年和2017年都下降了0.1歲——這一趨勢(shì)歸因于“絕望死亡”的上升，其中包括吸毒過(guò)量與自殺。新的預(yù)估數(shù)據(jù)顯示，新型冠狀病毒肺炎導(dǎo)致的下降幅度要比這大10倍。

此外，這項(xiàng)研究顯示，2020年預(yù)期壽命在黑人與拉丁美洲人群體中下降幅度更大，這兩個(gè)群體受疫情影響尤為嚴(yán)重。總的來(lái)說(shuō)，根據(jù)約翰霍普金斯大學(xué)病毒儀表板的數(shù)據(jù)，美國(guó)總共有近40萬(wàn)人死于新型冠狀病毒肺炎。

研究預(yù)測(cè)黑人的預(yù)期壽命將會(huì)減少2.1歲，達(dá)到72.78歲，拉美人口的預(yù)期壽命將會(huì)減少3.05歲，達(dá)到78.77歲。相比之下，白人的預(yù)期壽命預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)減少0.68歲，達(dá)到77.84歲。

“我們的研究分析了超常死亡人數(shù)對(duì)整個(gè)國(guó)家預(yù)期壽命的影響以及給邊緣群體帶來(lái)的后果。”研究合著者、南加州大學(xué)博士后特里薩·安德拉斯法伊在一份聲明中說(shuō)道，“新冠疫情對(duì)黑人與拉美裔美國(guó)人預(yù)期壽命的影響與其人口占比不相稱(chēng)，可能是因?yàn)檫@兩類(lèi)人群的工作場(chǎng)所或者幾代同堂的生活方式使其暴露在更大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中，外加醫(yī)療條件差，感染病例更多，后果更為嚴(yán)重。”

研究人員使用四種情景估計(jì)了美國(guó)出生時(shí)的預(yù)期壽命——一種情景是新冠肺炎大流行沒(méi)有發(fā)生，另外三種情景使用了健康指標(biāo)和評(píng)估研究所對(duì)2020年新型冠狀病毒肺炎死亡率的預(yù)測(cè)。

對(duì)于黑人與拉美人口來(lái)說(shuō)，其預(yù)期壽命的大幅度減少很大程度上是由于“在這些群體中有過(guò)多年輕人死亡”，該研究的合著者、普林斯頓大學(xué)人口學(xué)和公共事務(wù)教授諾琳·戈德曼在一份聲明中說(shuō)，“這些發(fā)現(xiàn)強(qiáng)調(diào)了保護(hù)性行為和計(jì)劃的必要性，以減少年輕人群中潛在的病毒感染，這些年輕人可能不覺(jué)得自身并處在高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之中。”

該作者認(rèn)為需要注意的是，出生時(shí)預(yù)期壽命是人口在特定時(shí)期（本文為2020年）死亡率水平下存活的年數(shù)。

盡管今年新冠疫苗可能大幅降低病毒的傳播性，但是研究人員認(rèn)為預(yù)期壽命的增加不會(huì)在2021年迅速反彈。

安德拉斯法伊說(shuō)：“盡管有效的疫苗帶來(lái)了希望，最近美國(guó)由于新冠病毒而死去的人數(shù)比以往任何流行病的時(shí)候都多”，他還補(bǔ)充道：“正因如此，因?yàn)槲覀冾A(yù)計(jì)對(duì)健康與經(jīng)濟(jì)將會(huì)有長(zhǎng)期的影響，這將會(huì)導(dǎo)致未來(lái)許多年更高的死亡率。我們預(yù)計(jì)這一影響在2021年仍會(huì)繼續(xù)持續(xù)下去。”