中國開放的大門只會越開越大

編者按:

如何理解“雙循環”？“雙循環”需要改革的關鍵點是什么？“雙循環”的投資機會在哪里？“十四五”時期的發展環境如何？以什么思路發展？有哪些任務和舉措？如何開頂風船，轉危為機，努力實現更高質量的發展……

帶著這些問題，我們與17位頂級經濟學家進行了深入交流。

Editor’s note

What is dual circulation? What are the key points to be reformed for it? What investment opportunities will it bring? What will be the development environment during the 14th Five-Year Plan? What will be the development ideas? What will be tasks and initiatives? How do we overcome difficulties,turn crises into opportunities,and strive to achieve higher quality development? …

With the aforementioned questions,we conducted a deep discussion with 17 top economists.

精品書摘未完待續

Excerpts （to be continued）

其實內循環，或者說內需對經濟增長的貢獻和驅動力，在過去的十幾年一直是上升的。一個最典型的例子就是中國的對外貿易依存度（外貿的出口加上外貿的進口，除以GDP）是逐年下降的。在全球金融危機以前，中國的對外貿易依存度高達65%，而現在大概是31.4%。在中國改革開放之初，包括在21世紀加入WTO初期時，中國利用外貿拉動經濟增長，效果顯著。但是隨著規模的增加，作為一個大型經濟體，依靠出口拉動經濟增長是不可持續的。現在很多小型經濟體是在走這個路子，這種方式是不可持續的。因為全球外貿的蛋糕就那么大，快馬加鞭，會增加國際貿易摩擦。

另外，是有關中國自身產業的安全、經濟的安全。中國想要融入全球分工體系之中，但是若自身的創新能力不強，會在關鍵環節遭遇“卡脖子”，一些關鍵的環節可能受制于人。所以中國還是要以內循環為主，這個是基于當前國際形勢的變化和自身內在的要求，作出的重大調整。這也體現了過去經濟發展的結構性變化趨勢——內需對經濟的貢獻越來越大，而且展望未來，無論是消費需求還是投資需求都有很大的發展潛力。現在中國經濟規模突破100萬億元，人均GDP突破1萬美元，但是相對發達經濟體來說，中國仍然只有別國的 1/4。中國14億人口當中，有6億人每個月的收入不到1000元，有10億人現在還沒有坐過飛機，所以未來經濟的發展潛力還是很大的。因此中國也是要通過供給側的結構性改革，提升供給的質量、服務的質量來滿足老百姓對高質量生活的需求。中國要利用這樣一個機會來發展自身的經濟。

發展內需不是說要搞閉關鎖國。中國還是要利用兩個市場兩種資源不遺余力地擴大開放。這兩年北京的服貿會、廣州的廣交會、上海的進博會，三足鼎立，都釋放出一個積極的信號：中國開放的大門只會越開越大。

Actually,internal circulation,or domestic demand,has played an ever greater role in boosting national economic growth in the past over a decade. The best proof is the yearby-year decrease in China’s foreign trade degree of dependence （FTD,i.e. the sum of exports and imports divided by GDP）. Before the global financial crisis broke out,China’s FTD was up to 65%,but now has dropped to approximately 31.4%. True enough,in the first decades after China launched the reform and opening-up policy,especially after China’s participation in the WTO in the 21st century,remarkable achievements were made by China in driving economic growth through foreign trade. But as China’s GDP rises,developing economy by relying on export trade has become unsustainable for such a large country as China. Though many small economies today are still growing this way,this cannot change its unsustainable nature a bit. That’s because the size of the “global foreign trade” cake is stable in a period and more haste could backfire — Trade friction between worldwide countries may escalate.

Another reason why the way is not sustainable is that it cannot keep China’s industry and economy in healthy shape. To get integrated into the international division of labor,China must become innovative enough. Otherwise,it may get stuck in key links or even have to rely on others in some ones. In this connection,China should focus on internal circulation. It’s a major adjustment given current international and domestic situations. It also reflects the structural change trend of China’s economic growth in the past years — Domestic demand will contribute more and more to economic growth. Moreover,both domestic consumption and investment demands are expected to embrace huge development potential in the coming future. In 2020,China’s GDP exceeded the 100-trillion-yuan threshold. But in terms of per capita GDP,China still lags behind that of developed economies with a figure of about USD 10,000,which is only 1/4 of the advanced levels. Besides,of China’s 1.4 billion people,600 million earn less than 1,000 yuan a month,and 1 billion have never taken a plane. It can be seen that there is still great potential in China for future economic growth. Therefore,it’s necessary for China to pursue supplyside structural reform and improve the quality of supply and service to satisfy people’s demand for a high-quality life. Meanwhile,it also presents China with a good opportunity to boost economic growth.

But focusing on domestic demand is not to close the door. Instead,China will make better use of both international and domestic markets and resources to open wider. In the past two years,China International Fair for Trade in Services,China Import and Export Fair,and China International Import Expo were held in China’s Beijing,Guangzhou and Shanghai respectively. And all of them have sent the same positive signal:China will open wider and wider.

《邁向高質量發展之路》

作者：郭克莎 等

出版社：科學出版社

本書入選中宣部2020年主題出版重點出版物，是一本系統闡述高質量發展內涵、目標、路徑和政策的優秀著作。郭克莎團隊從產業結構升級、綠色發展、高質量就業等方面對經濟高質量發展進行深入的理論研究，提出了促進推動高質量發展的可落地、可實施的政策建議。

《浮世繪》

作者：潘力

出版社：湖南美術出版社

浮世繪被譽為“日本民俗的百科全書”，表現日本江戶時代社會各階層的生活百態和流行時尚。中國浮世繪研究權威潘力在書中解析了《歌撰戀之部》《富岳三十六景》《名所江戶百景》等200多幅經典作品的風格，并認為“每一幅浮世繪都承載著豐富的日本民俗文化密碼”。

《深海淺說》

作者：汪品先

出版社：上海科技教育出版社

這本關于深海的科普書籍，滿足了讀者對于海洋知識尤其是深海知識的渴求。汪品先院士長期致力于推進中國深海科技的發展，有力推動了中國地球系統科學研究。此次出版的《深海淺說》乃是他對過去數十年科普成果的一次全面梳理，選材科學嚴謹，語言富有張力。