錦州市高溫氣候特征及預(yù)報(bào)著眼點(diǎn)研究

周福然　楊桂娟　婁芳蕾　史虹婷　王淼　常姝婷

摘 要：應(yīng)用錦州氣象觀(guān)測(cè)站日最高氣溫等常規(guī)觀(guān)測(cè)資料，采用天氣學(xué)和統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)方法，從氣候特征、環(huán)流形勢(shì)等方面對(duì)2004—2016年錦州高溫天氣過(guò)程進(jìn)行分析，找出高溫天氣的預(yù)報(bào)著眼點(diǎn)，為高溫天氣預(yù)報(bào)預(yù)警提供參考依據(jù)。結(jié)果表明：錦州高溫日數(shù)年份分布不均勻，年平均高溫日為2.7 d;2004—2016年有3個(gè)明顯多高溫日的年份，分別是2004年、2009年和2015年。此外，高溫日集中出現(xiàn)在4—8月，其中8月份高溫日數(shù)最多，占總高溫日數(shù)的46%，其次是6月和7月，分別占總高溫日數(shù)的20%和27%。高溫最早出現(xiàn)在4月26日，地點(diǎn)為錦州市區(qū);最晚出現(xiàn)在8月17日，地點(diǎn)為錦州市區(qū)和北鎮(zhèn)市。高溫出現(xiàn)在14點(diǎn)和15點(diǎn)最多，占總?cè)諗?shù)的78%;錦州市區(qū)、義縣高溫日數(shù)較凌海、北鎮(zhèn)以及黑山次數(shù)更多。持續(xù)2 d以上的高溫日數(shù)集中在6月和8月，共有8次，最長(zhǎng)持續(xù)時(shí)間為5 d。高溫天氣的環(huán)流形勢(shì)可歸納為高壓型、緯向環(huán)流型和副熱帶高壓型。

關(guān)鍵詞：高溫;氣候特征;環(huán)流形勢(shì)

中圖分類(lèi)號(hào)：P468 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A 文章編號(hào)：1003-5168（2021）25-0143-03

Study on Climatic Characteristics and Forecast Focus of High Temperature in Jinzhou

ZHOU Furan YANG Guijuan LOU Fanglei SHI Hongting WANG Miao CHANG Shuting

（Jinzhou Meteorological Bureau， Jinzhou Liaoning 121000）

Abstract： Based on the conventional observation data of meteorological observatory in Jinzhou， this paper analyzes the high temperature weather process in Jinzhou from 2004 to 2016 by statistical method from the aspects of climate characteristics and circulation situation， and finds out the focus of high temperature weather forecast. The results show that the distribution of high temperature days in Jinzhou area is uneven， with the annual average high temperature days being 2.7. There are three years with more high temperature days from 2004 to 2016， namely 2004， 2009 and 2015. The high temperature sunrise is now from April to August， and the high temperature days are mainly concentrated in August， accounting for 46% of the total high temperature days， followed by June and July， accounting for 20% and 27% of the total high temperature days respectively; The high temperature first appeared on April 26th， in Jinzhou city， and the latest appeared on August 17th， in Jinzhou city and Beizhen city. High temperature appeared at 14 o'clock and 15 o'clock， accounting for 78% of the total number of days respectively; The number of high temperature days in Jinzhou city and Yixian county is obviously more than that in Linghai， Beizhen and Montenegro; The number of high temperature days lasting for more than two days appeared in June and August， with a total of 8 times and the longest duration was 5 days; The circulation situation of high temperature weather can be summarized as high pressure type， zonal circulation type and subtropical high pressure type Find out the forecast focus of high temperature weather， and provide reference for high temperature weather forecast and early warning

Keywords： high temperature;climate characteristics;circulation situation

隨著全球氣候變暖，夏季高溫天氣頻發(fā)現(xiàn)象越來(lái)越受到社會(huì)和公眾的關(guān)注。氣象工作者對(duì)高溫天氣做了大量研究[1-7]。錦州市位于遼寧省的西南部，境內(nèi)山脈連綿起伏。東北部義縣和北鎮(zhèn)市交界處有閭山山脈，西北部有松嶺山脈，形成了由西北向東南依次為低山區(qū)、丘陵區(qū)以及平原區(qū)的傾斜地勢(shì)。錦州夏季高溫多雨，對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)剞r(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)、交通、電力以及建筑等行業(yè)工作和人們的日常生活造成了一定的負(fù)面影響，因此準(zhǔn)確及時(shí)地做好高溫天氣的預(yù)報(bào)、預(yù)警工作具有重要意義。……