基于經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣指數(shù)的長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行分析與預(yù)測(cè)

趙天翊 胡煜 張慶芝

【摘? 要】長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)作為我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)最發(fā)達(dá)的地區(qū)，其經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行狀態(tài)對(duì)于全國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展都有著重要的影響。論文基于2013—2019年的季度數(shù)據(jù)，為長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)構(gòu)建了經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣指數(shù)，并通過(guò)計(jì)算絕對(duì)值和同比值兩種指標(biāo)的一致合成指數(shù)和先行合成指數(shù)，探討各指數(shù)動(dòng)態(tài)變化的內(nèi)在原因并對(duì)未來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，為長(zhǎng)三角一體化發(fā)展提供決策支持。

【Abstract】As the most developed region of China， the economic operation state of the Yangtze River Delta region has an important impact on the economic development of the whole country. Based on the quarterly data of 2013—2019， this paper constructs the economic prosperity index for the Yangtze River Delta region. Through calculating the consistent composite index and the first composite index of absolute value and year-on-year value， this paper discusses the internal causes of the dynamic changes of each index and forecasts the future economic operation， so as to provide decision support for the integration development of Yangtze River Delta.

【關(guān)鍵詞】經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣指數(shù);長(zhǎng)三角;一致指數(shù);先行指數(shù)

【Keywords】economic climate index; Yangtze River Delta; consistent index; leading index

【中圖分類(lèi)號(hào)】 F49? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?【文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼】A? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?【文章編號(hào)】1673-1069（2020）06-0048-02