2019: International Situation and Chinese Diplomacy

Su Ge

Co-Chair of Pacific Economic Cooperation Council and?

Former President of China Institute of International Studies

The current international situation is complicated and full of contradictions， major country contest continuing to intensify， and the international order being at a transition period between the old and new. At the same time， China stands at an important juncture of the worlds historic development and at the crucial moment of rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The fact that the world undergoing profound changes unseen in a century overlaps with the historic opportunities for Chinas development determines that China is in face of both unprecedented opportunities and complex risks and challenges.

Situation of International

Political Security Goes through Ups and Downs

1.“America First” results in increased risks of international security

In 2019， the world was far from being tranquil. US national security strategy took major country contest for its primary concerns， and insisted on reshaping the world order with the principle of “America First”， which resulted in increased major country contest. In Fiscal Year 2019， US defense budget rose to US$716.3 billion. In July， the US Department of Defense redefined the mission of the US military from “preventing war” to “building a more lethal force”. In August， the US officially withdrew from the INF Treaty， which marked the beginning of a new round of arms race between the US and Russia. In its foreign policy， the Trump administration seeks its unilateral superiority， continues to have contradictions with US traditional allies like Europe and Japan on economic and trade issues and on defense spending sharing， and had its own way on important issues like Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran nuclear issue and the climate change. On issues of Syria， Ukraine， nuclear arms control， and NATO expansion eastward， it was dramatically opposed to Russia， which underlined major country contradictions and escalated strategic competition between the two countries.

2. China-US strategic contest keeps extending

After the new edition of US National Security Strategy played up “China threat”， the US National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019 made a clear statement that it is utmost priority for the US to be in long-term strategic competition with China. In June， the US Department of Defense released Indo-Pacific Strategy Report， signifying that the “free and open” Indo-Pacific strategy the US had promoted for long officially took shape and that the US had increased its efforts to guard against China and keep it down. On the South China Sea issue， the US continued its “freedom of navigation” operations. On Taiwan issue， the US kept probing the bottom-line of mainland China， with a clear intent to “play Taiwan card”. Moreover， China-US contradictions and struggle over cybersecurity went on. Strategic anxiety of the US is on the increase， and its policy of comprehensively squeezing China remains unchanged. China-US contest features complexity， arduousness and long-standing.

3. EU integration moves on in difficulty

In 2019， the pressure for European economic downturn increased， and European political ecology underwent great changes， internal contradiction piling up and populist parties growing fast. In May， the elections of European Parliament concluded; it became difficult for two major parties to continue their tradition of holding sway; as the number of cabinet parties increased， so rose instability. At the anniversary of yellow vest movement in France， violent protests were again on the rise. Traditional politics began to polarize in Italy， Poland and the Nordic countries， and extremist political forces built on momentum. Germany was in face of another historic dilemma how to continue as a “normal major country”. Under the circumstances of the US continuing to disrupt multilateral international order， EU sentiment for protectionism， xenophobia and introversion is on the rise， increasing its restrictions on Chinese investment and acquisitions. The British Parliament was reluctant to reach consensus on Brexit agreement， turning Brexit into Brit-sit-on; in June， British Prime Minister Teresa May resigned; in July， Boris Johnson became British Prime Minister and won a general election in December with an enhanced position; on December 20， British House of Commons passed a new Brexit agreement， deciding for officially withdrawing from the EU on January 31， 2020， which can hardly resolve underlying British internal contradictions.

2019 marked the 70th anniversary of the founding of the NATO， which underscored the underlying contradictions of US-EU internal operational mechanism. In December， a summit meeting of NATO member states was held in London， which saw continued discords on how to handle relations with Russia and on sharing of military spending. The US requested its NATO allies to actively address “China threat” and urged its European allies to coordinate positions on the issue of 5G network. However European countries like France and Germany were unwilling to go along with the US completely， and in the end， heads of NATO states at the summit signed a joint communique， which for the first time acknowledged that the rise of China brought to the NATO “opportunities and challenges”.

Increased Risks of

International Economic

Downturn

Environment of international trade became tight， trading frictions going up and trading volume going down. The IMF believed that the growth rate of 90 percent of global economies slowed down in 2019， the estimated growth rate of global economy being 3 percent， lower than the previously estimated 3.2 percent， being the lowest since the outbreak of the international financial crisis of 2008. The growth rate of the developed economies was reduced to 1.7 percent， and that of the emerging markets and developing economies down to 3.9 percent. There were multiple reasons for the slowdown of economic growth rate， including rising trade barriers， rising geopolitical uncertainty， some of the emerging economies facing increased external pressure and financial challenges， and the developed economies facing restructuring and the list goes on. The US Federal Reserve raising rates and appreciation of the dollar triggered off international capital flowing back to the US. European debt issues had yet to find a proper solution， and the effect of Japans flexible monetary policy diminished， its dynamics for economic growth being less than sufficient. Raised US interest rates， stronger US dollar and fluctuation of financial market brought heavier pressure on some of the emerging markets and developing economies， whose prospect for growth not allowing optimism. Furthermore， the IMF expressed its great concerns for the trend of China-US economic and trade frictions， forecasting that should a total trade war happen between China and the US， global economic growth rate could go down by 0.3 percentage points and may deteriorate further.

International Geopolitical

Contests Intensify

1. Complicating changes happen again to Chinas neighborhood environment

In February 2019， the second summit meeting between the DPRK and the US was held in Hanoi， Vietnam， but the two sides failed to sign a declaration and the bilateral ties rapidly cooled off. On June 30， President Trump and the supreme leader of DPRK Kim Jong-un had a brief meeting in Panmunjom. However， the public opinions generally believed that the meeting meant only “symbolic” improvement of DPRK-US relations. The US believed that the DPRK side failed to take substantial de-nuclear measures and hence did not loosen its sanctions on the DPRK. As DPRK-US mutual trust is fragile， the process of a relaxation of tension in the Korean peninsula may be reversed. In August， India decided to do away with the article 370 of its constitution， abolishing the special self-government status of the Indian-held Kashmir， attempting to unilaterally change the status quo of area under its actual control， which led to tension in India-Pakistan situation. In general， the situation of the South China Sea remained stable， and in April， China-Philippines bilateral consultation mechanism held its 4th meeting in Manila， capital of the Philippines， both sides exploring the intention to cooperate on the development of marine oil and gas resources. However， the US intended to make its patrol of the South China Sea “normal”， instigating other countries from beyond the region to participate in its “freedom of navigation” operations， resulting in the fact that Britain， India， Japan， Australia and France spoiled the South China Sea. In September， the Japanese government approved the 2019 edition of its Defense White Book， breaching the principle of “exclusive defense”， playing up “China threat”， announcing that Japan Self-Defense Forces would enhance its military science-technology capacity， and once more highlighting Japan-US alliance and strengthening Japan-US cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.

2. Middle East regional hotspot issues remain unresolved

First， there was no solution to Palestine-Israel historical conflict. The US Trump administration offered a “deal of the century” in solving the Palestine-Israel issue， which was mocked by the international community as “money for peace” and rejected by all parties concerned. In March， President Trump officially recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights in violation of pertinent resolutions of the United Nations. The US lopsided actions of favoring Israel and suppressing Palestine led to more complexity and difficulty of the regional situation. Secondly， US-Iran contest continued. The US unilaterally withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action （JCPA） on Iran nuclear issue in 2018 and increased sanctions on Iran in 2019. Between May and September， Iran declared to carry out phased suspension of part of the provisions of the JCPA， in response to US sanctions. The US furthered its “maximum pressure” against Iran and built up its troops in the region in an attempt to force Iran to comply， which encountered strong counter attack by Iran， resulting in continued frictions between both sides. Third， the US pulling out its forces from North Syria worsened the Middle East situation of turbulence and disorder. In October， Turkey launched cross-border “Spring of Peace” military operation to strike Kurdish forces in North Syria， causing great concerns of the international community. Against the backdrop of intensified US-Russia contest in the region， regional major countries such as Turkey， Iran and Israel rivaled for leadership over regional affairs. On Syrian issue， the US， Turkey and Russia continued to compete and contest， Turkey-Syria dispute intermingling with national， religious， anti-terrorist issues， constituting new “compound security issues”， regional peace and stability being out of reach.

3. The US and Russia fall into lasting antagonism centering on Ukraine and East Europe

After the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis， the US increased its efforts to suppress Russia， resulting in deterioration of the bilateral relationship. Over the Ukrainian and Georgian issues， the NATO and Russia continued to struggle overt and covert. In February 2019， the Supreme Rada of Ukraine passed a resolution to put it into the Ukrainian Constitution as a strategic objective to join the NATO and the EU. The NATO-Russia discords continued： the NATO increased military spending， kept strengthening its military deployment in East Europe， and pointed its sword to Russia; Russia gave tit for tat， comprehensively suspended cooperation with the NATO， and vigorously developed new equipment for its navy， army and air force. However， both sides still try to avoid an armed conflict.

Challenges to Global Governance Come to the Limelight

1. Supply and demand of global governance lose balance

At present， various global challenges keep occurring and increasingly come to the limelight， and unilateralism underscores deficit of global governance， whose supply and demand are off balance. In 2019， US President Trump continued to play up his concept of “America First”， frequently picking up issues of trade protectionism and anti-immigration， and shirking responsibility and quitting groups for global governance， which brought about great uncertainty to the international community. In November， the US was bent on withdrawing from the Paris Agreement， leaving global governance on climate change faced with serious challenges. Reform of the WTO was put on the agenda by several countries， and on December 11， as the US was dissatisfied with the plan of reform on the WTO Appellate Body， it once again obstructed the appointment of a judge to the body and hence the WTOs “supreme court” fell into a halt.

2. Major country contest on high-tech intensifies

Since the 21st century began， a new round of technological revolution and industrial changes signified by blockchain technology， artificial intelligence， quantum information science， mobile communication， the Internet of Things has begun to reshape the global economic structure and accelerate the switch over between the old dynamics and a new one. At the same time， information technology develops fast， network and real life being connected seamlessly， and influence of public opinion ever increasing leads to the fact that domestic issues are internationalized， and international issues are internalized. In 2019， the 5th generation of mobile communication （5G） began to enter into a stage of commercial deployment， developing in the direction of being network diversiform， on broadband， integrated and intelligent， which at the same time triggered off rivalry for power of international rule making. Concerned about the technological strengthen of Huawei Corporation， the US kept suppressing the company.

3. Various types of non-traditional security challenges overlap

Governance difficulties of Latin American countries were highlighted： Venezuela was in face of political crisis and external economic sanctions， and Chile， Ecuador and Bolivia were in predicament of intensified political and social contradictions and economic downturn. In the region of Africa， various types of non-traditional security issues never ceased： cross-border issues of human trafficking， drug trafficking， smuggling and epidemic spreading interwove. The situation of international terrorism remained serious： from the shootings at two mosques in New Zealand at the beginning of 2019 to the terrorist outrage at the London Bridge in Britain， “lone wolf” attacks continued to happen in the West. Serious terrorist attacks also happened in developing countries like Somalia， Sri Lanka and Afghanistan. Though the top leader of the ISIS Baghdadi was killed， it is still possible for his remnant followers to spill over. A solution to the refugee issue remained an arduous task. The seriousness of global warming became increasingly evident， and extreme natural disasters and transnational infectious diseases still happen frequently.

Major Country Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics Forges ahead

2019 marked the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Peoples Republic of China. China summed up comprehensively its 70 years of experience in diplomacy， which will focus on the Party and the countrys key tasks， endeavor to create still more favorable external environment for the achievement of the two centenary goals， open up still broader space for cooperation， and inject still stronger growth dynamics.

1. Plot and layout major country diplomacy

First， China-US relations went through ups and downs. The underlying contradictions of China-US relations came to the limelight， the bilateral relationship encountering unprecedentedly complex situation. Over the past year， the US continued to suppress China and put it under groundless restrictions in the fields of economy and trade， science and technology， and people to people exchange， and again interfere with China internal affairs on issues relating to Taiwan， Xinjiang and Hong Kong that involve Chinas sovereignty and national dignity， and wantonly slander Chinas social system， development path and its mutually beneficial cooperation with other countries， all of which severely impaired the basis of mutual trust between the two countries. Not only did the US-made economic frictions damage the existing order of China-US economic and trade relations， it also seriously affected the prospect of economic development of the world. China took a series of countermeasures that were on just grounds， to its advantage and with restraint and at the same time sought constructive dialogue with the US side. In June， top leaders of both countries had a summit meeting at G20 Leaders Meeting in Osaka. In mid-December， both sides reached agreement on the first phase of the economic and trade agreement. On December 22， President Xi Jinping held a telephone conversation with his US counterpart Donald Trump at the latters request， both sides expressing the willingness to continue keeping in contact by various means， to exchange views on bilateral relationship and international issues， and to make joint efforts to propel a China-US relationship based on coordination， cooperation and stability.

Secondly， China-Russia mutual political trust continued to deepen. In June 2019， at a meeting in commemoration of 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries， the two heads of state jointly announced to develop China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era， initiating a new era for the bilateral ties to rise to a still higher level and achieve even greater development. In December， President Xi and President Putin had a video call， jointly witnessed the launching ceremony of the China-Russia east-route natural gas pipeline. China and Russia continued to deepen pragmatic cooperation in all fields， and the bilateral relationship had gone through 70 years of winds and rains and kept growing in spite of the twists and turns.

Third， China-EU comprehensive strategic partnership continued to be strengthened. China continued to set store by developing cooperative partnership with Europe， and work together with European countries to jointly uphold multilateralism， improve global governance and safeguard international rules and order. In March 2019， European Commissions policy report EU-China： A Strategic Outlook defined China as “a cooperation partner”， “a negotiating partner”， “an economic competitor”， and “a systemic rival”， but in general displayed its willingness to cooperate， have dialogue and “engage” with China. Leaders of European countries such as Germany， France and Italy visited China successively， reaching extensive consensus on important issues like globalization， global governance and upholding free trade. At the beginning of 2019， in spite of US opposition， Italy signed an MOU with China to advance the construction of BRI， becoming the first EU founding member state and G7 member country to sign such an MOU， and more and more EU member states expressed the willingness to cooperate with China on the BRI construction.

2. Neighborhood diplomacy is strengthened comprehensively

China continued to strengthen political mutual trust， extend pragmatic cooperation， and deepen interest integration with its neighboring countries. As always， acting on the principle of fairness and impartiality， China proposed Chinese approaches and played an active role in resolving hotspot and difficult international and regional issues. In June， General Secretary Xi Jinping made a historic visit to DPRK on the occasion of 70th anniversary of the establishment of China-DPRK diplomatic relations， consolidating and carrying forward traditional friendship between the two countries. At the G20 Leaders Meeting in Osaka， President Xi Jinping met Prime Minister Shinzo Abe， and both sides reached a ten-point consensus， agreeing to work together to construct a China-Japan relationship meeting the requirement of a new era， achieving a turnabout in the bilateral ties. In October， President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Modi successfully had their second informal summit at Chennai， India and conducted strategic communication on further deepening China-India relations. With the upgraded protocol for China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement coming into force comprehensively， China-ASEAN relations entered a new stage of all round development. In late December， President Xi Jinping met ROK President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe respectively in Beijing and， later on， Premier Li Keqiang and the Japanese and ROK leaders successfully held the 8th Chin-Japan-ROK leaders meeting in Chengdu. It is hoped that China-Japan-ROK cooperation will play a positive role in guiding and promoting regional development of East Asia. Working together with other parties concerned， China made unyielding efforts to uphold the JCPA on Iran nuclear issue， to actively mediate over the issue of Rakhine State， Myanmar， and to seek a solution to the issues of Afghanistan， Syria and Palestine.

3. Continue to lay a solid foundation of relations with other developing countries

With other developing countries， China acted on the principle of sincerity， real results， amity and good faith and the principle of pursuing the greater good and shared interests， and accelerated the construction of a community with a shared future of developing countries. Item by item， the Chinese side implemented the two important documents of Forum on China-Africa Cooperation （FOCAC） Beijing Summit Beijing Declaration： toward an Even Stronger China-Africa Community with a Shared Future and the FOCAC Beijing Action Plan （2019-2021）. In 2019， China hosted the 1st China-Latin America Regional Cooperation Forum and the 5th China-Latin America and the Caribbean Think Tanks Forum， continuing to lay a solid social and popular foundation for China-Latin America relations. In July， when the 8th Ministerial Meeting of China-Arab States Cooperation Forum was held in Beijing， President Xi Jinping attended the opening ceremony and solemnly declared that China and the Arab states agreed to construct a strategic partnership of comprehensive cooperation and common development that faces the future， turning a new page in the history of China-Arab states relations.

4. Solid expansion of multilateral diplomacy

In 2019， China hosted two most important events of “home field” diplomacy： one was the Leaders Roundtable of the 2nd Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation， aiming to further promote the development of BRI construction of a higher quality， by a higher standard and at a higher level. The other was the 2nd China International Import Expo， participated by over 3000 companies from more than 150 countries and regions. China continued to advance opening to the outside world at a higher level and to inject strong confidence and driving force to promoting the construction of an open world economy and the progress of economic globalization.

In June， the 19th Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization （SCO） was held in Bishkek and the 5th Summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia was held in Dushanbe， facilitating all parties concerned to consolidate friendship and mutual trust， enhance understanding and consensus with fruitful results. In November， the 35th ASEAN Summit and related annual leaders meetings on East Asian Cooperation were held in Bangkok， Thailand， during which the 3rd leadership meeting of regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement （RCEP） was called and a joint statement was issued， declaring that the 15 member states had concluded all negotiations on the agreement and virtually all negotiations on market access and were committed to officially signing the RCEP agreement in 2020， which forcefully promoted the process of regional economic integration and helped safeguard free trade， and shore up confidence in the market.

Amid profound changes unseen in a century， it is only natural for China to encounter various complex challenges and risks. Guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Diplomacy， the Chinese diplomacy will keep in mind its original aspiration to promote the peoples wellbeing， take on the mission of making contributions to human progress， and act on the principle of consultation， contribution and shared benefits， deeply participating in and guiding global governance， firmly upholding the international system with the UN at its core， firmly supporting globalization and multilateralism， comprehensively advancing friendly cooperation with all other countries in the world， and unyieldingly promoting the construction of a new type of international relations and a community with a shared future for humanity. Major country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics， like a giant vessel navigating the sea， will firmly and steadily keep the set， in correct direction， cleaving waves and forging ahead， resolute and steadfast， toward its intended destination.