貨幣政策與杠桿率的相關(guān)性研究

宋思宸

摘要：我國經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入“新常態(tài)”之后增長速度出現(xiàn)明顯下跌，同時(shí)隨之而來的是杠桿率的快速上升。貨幣政策作為重要的宏觀調(diào)控手段，是目前政府最青睞的實(shí)現(xiàn)“穩(wěn)增長”和“降杠桿”的工具。本文采用中國2008-2018年的面板數(shù)據(jù)，通過構(gòu)建含有控制變量的貨幣政策與杠桿率的動(dòng)態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型來實(shí)證分析貨幣政策對(duì)杠桿率的影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，杠桿率隨著貨幣供應(yīng)量的增加而提高。并由此提出了五項(xiàng)政策建議，一是持續(xù)將“降杠桿”作為目前防范系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的重要任務(wù)，二是建立“宏觀審慎”與“貨幣政策”的雙支柱，平衡穩(wěn)增長、去杠桿與防風(fēng)險(xiǎn)間的關(guān)系，三是在提高貨幣政策針對(duì)性和靈活性的同時(shí)，強(qiáng)調(diào)微觀措施與結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整，四是貨幣政策配合其他政策共同完成宏觀調(diào)控，五是建立杠桿率動(dòng)態(tài)監(jiān)測模型。

Abstract： After China's economy has entered the "new normal"， the growth rate has dropped significantly， and at the same time， the leverage has risen rapidly. Monetary policy， as an important macro-control means， is currently the government's favorite tool for achieving

"stable growth" and "reducing leverage". This paper uses China's panel data from 2008 to 2018， and constructs a dynamic panel data model of monetary policy and leverage with control variables to empirically analyze the impact of monetary policy on leverage. The study found that the leverage ratio increased as the money supply increased. Five policy suggestions are put forward accordingly. The first is to continue to use "reducing leverage" as an important task to prevent systemic financial risks. The second is to establish the dual pillars of "macro-prudence" and "monetary policy" to balance relationship among the stable growth， reducing leverage and risk prevention. The third is to improve the pertinence and flexibility of monetary policy， while emphasizing micro-measures and structural adjustments. The fourth is to coordinate monetary policy with other policies to complete macroeconomic control. The fifth is to establish a dynamic monitoring model of leverage rate.

關(guān)鍵詞：貨幣政策;杠桿率;國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值;excel軟件

Key words： monetary policy;leverage ratio;GDP;excel software

中圖分類號(hào)：F299.23;F822.0? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 文章編號(hào)：1006-4311（2020）04-0095-03

1? 緒論

自從2008年經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)爆發(fā)后，“去杠桿”是各國尋求化解經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)，恢復(fù)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要手段。近幾年隨著中國的快速發(fā)展，國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（Gross Domestic Product，以下簡稱GDP）隨著居民的收入不斷增高，我國目前處于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的轉(zhuǎn)折期，從而去杠桿變得極為重要。理論上可以由貨幣政策直接來調(diào)節(jié)杠桿率流動(dòng)性，因此對(duì)于杠桿率的調(diào)節(jié)還需要貨幣政策來發(fā)力。中央銀行應(yīng)當(dāng)采取適當(dāng)?shù)呢泿耪撸乐垢軛U率的急速上升，避免出現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。習(xí)近平總書記在2015年中央經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)議中依據(jù)供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革的要求提出去產(chǎn)能、去杠桿、去庫存、降成本以及補(bǔ)短板的五項(xiàng)任務(wù)，簡稱“三去、一降、一補(bǔ)”。緊接著2018年的中央經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)議有明確指出中央銀行要綜合運(yùn)用貨幣政策工具，建立完善的利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制，使更多的金融資源流入到實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)中，平穩(wěn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的同時(shí)降低杠桿率。

中國面臨的現(xiàn)實(shí)情況是國際經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)后杠桿率一直處于上升狀態(tài)，而同時(shí)GDP卻下降。當(dāng)前中國處于經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的關(guān)鍵時(shí)期，現(xiàn)在經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況為產(chǎn)能過剩和債務(wù)高企以及樓盤庫存大這三個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況。因此，我國亟需運(yùn)用“三去一降一補(bǔ)”政策來緩解我國現(xiàn)有經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況，從而達(dá)到運(yùn)用貨幣政策來緩解杠桿率不斷升高以及GDP不斷下降的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況。從政策上講必然要求中央銀行參與杠桿率的調(diào)控。目前，中央銀行參與杠桿率調(diào)控的手段為運(yùn)用貨幣政策來保持杠桿率的穩(wěn)定并且保持經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的穩(wěn)定。因此，本文對(duì)貨幣政策和杠桿率的相關(guān)性進(jìn)行研究，以此獲得降低當(dāng)前高杠桿率的政策建議。