烤煙煙葉含梗率對其復烤加工出片率影響的模擬

摘 要：為及時準確預測煙草工業(yè)所調(diào)撥煙葉的出片率，利用2013—2015年畢節(jié)大方基地云煙87不同等級煙葉的含梗率數(shù)據(jù)進行聚類分析，劃分為6類。在此基礎上，通過調(diào)撥煙葉等級平均含梗率和類群平均含梗率作為自變量，利用2013—2014年的加工數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計建模，探究調(diào)撥烤煙含梗率對加工出片率的影響，并用2015年的加工數(shù)據(jù)資料對模型進行檢驗。結(jié)果表明：烤煙出片率隨煙葉收購等級含梗率呈logistic曲線變化，且等級含梗率與類群含梗率預測模型的RMSE均較小，分別為0.621%和0.649%，說明類群含梗率模型具有較好的描述性和預測性;同時，江蘇中煙在大方基地主要調(diào)撥等級X2F、C3F、B2F的期望出片率分別為63.40%、65.58%、68.60%。

關(guān)鍵詞：烤煙;含梗率;聚類分析;出片率;模擬模型

中圖分類號：TS44+3 文獻標識碼：A 文章編號：1006-060X（2019）01-0078-81

Abstract： In order to predict the strips yield of tobacco leaves allocated by the tobacco industry in time and accurately， the stem content data of Yunyan 87 tobacco leaves of different grades in Bijie Dafang Base from 2013 to 2015 were analyzed through cluster analysis， which were divided into six categories. On this basis， use the average stem content of tobacco grades and the average stem content of tobacco groups as independent variables， this paper attempts to establish a model based on the processing data statistics of 2013-2014 by allocating the average stem content of tobacco grades and the average stem content of tobacco groups as independent variables， to explore the effect of allocating the stem content of flue-cured tobacco on strips yield， and to test the model with the processing data of 2015. The results showed that the strips yield of flue-cured tobacco varied with the stem content of tobacco purchasing grade in a logistic curve， and the RMSE of the prediction models of grade stem content and group stem content were smaller， 0.621% and 0.649% respectively， indicating that the model of group stem content had better descriptiveness and predictability. At the same time， the expected strips yield of X2F， C3F and B2F are 63.40%， 65.58% and 68.60% respectively.

Key words： flue-cured tobacco; stem rate; cluster analysis; strips yield; simulation model

對于卷煙工業(yè)企業(yè)而言，調(diào)撥烤煙的收購質(zhì)量主要從收購品種、等級純度和等級合格率三個方面評價。基地烤煙品種與卷煙品牌需求有關(guān)，是提高煙葉質(zhì)量和產(chǎn)量的內(nèi)因[1]，生態(tài)氣候條件能引起煙草生長發(fā)育的改變，是影響煙葉質(zhì)量和產(chǎn)量的外因[2-3]，而等級純度和等級合格率的高低由混有不同部位等級煙葉的多少決定，與收購眼光有關(guān)。不同品種、不同生態(tài)條件、不同部位等級煙葉的物理特性不同[4]，物理特性不僅與煙葉內(nèi)在質(zhì)量密切相關(guān)，部分指標如含梗率還是影響煙葉加工出片率的關(guān)鍵指標，直接影響到卷煙制造過程、產(chǎn)品風格及其他經(jīng)濟因素[5-7]，因此烤煙復烤加工特性很大程度上受烤煙收購質(zhì)量的影響。……