“The thirteenth Five-Year Plan” and China’s Economy under the New Normal

【Abstract】The outbreak of the global economic crisis has announced that the world economy has entered a period of great adjustment and transition. The superposition of this great era background and Chinas current economic factors has decided that Chinas economy has entered a new normal. In the five years of the thirteenth Five-Year Plan， under the new normal， we have seen a series of significant and profound positive changes in the national economy. It is a firm grasp of the new stage and new laws of Chinas economic development at present and in the future. China is about to usher in the fourteenth Five-Year Plan， and the future macro-control and policy frame work will also make adaptive adjustments around the new features and changes of the new normal. This article will analyze and discuss the new normal of Chinas economy and the future tendencies of Chinas economy under the new normal.

【Key words】Chinas Economic; the New Normal; Industrial Restructuring

【作者簡(jiǎn)介】何深（1986.09-），男，本科畢業(yè)于南京藝術(shù)學(xué)院音樂學(xué)專業(yè)，碩士畢業(yè)于東京音樂大學(xué)音樂教育研究科。

The wheel of history has entered the golden autumn season of 2019， which will usher in the end of Chinas thirteenth Five-Year Plan. On this occasion， there is no doubt that economic work remains the top priority. From December 9 to 11， 2014， the Central Economic Working Conference put forward a new vocabulary called “New Normal”. The new normal state is a state of returning to normal after a period of abnormal state， it is a transitional economic situation of a country after experiencing economic crisis and economic adjustment. In contrast， the old normal is extensive， quantitative and expansive economic state， which is driven by low cost. The so-called new normal economy requires that it be transferred to intensive and quality-oriented economy for development. It is related to the quality of life of all people， and its a topic we cant get around. The main features of the new normal are the return of economic growth from high speed to medium-high speed， the transformation of development mode to quality-efficiency， the optimization and upgrading of economic structure， and the shift of development power from factor-driven， investment-driven to innovation-driven， which are clearly described in the report of the Central Economic Working Conference.

Today， China has overtaken Japan to become the worlds second largest economy. Review the past， there were two main factors that supported Chinas current development. One is the resources and environment， and the other is the demographic dividend， which makes Chinas economy have total confidence in its growth process. However， after years of development， problems have arisen in both areas. First is the problem of resources and environment. Due to the excessive consumption of resources and environment， its bearing capacity has reached or approached the upper limit. In recent years， the frequent occurrence of haze phenomenon is the most direct manifestation. the so-called “pollution before treatment” road has entered a dead end. Moreover， from the perspective of resources， China is particularly concerned about the international oil market because of its heavy dependence on oil imports. Our utilization of domestic energy has reached its peak， there will be significant changes in production and consumption of energy， as well as in the structure and quantity. Achieving the goal of energy saving and emission reduction is an important requirement under the new normal economic development. It is imperative to promote the revolution of energy production and consumption， and truly realize the improvement of quality and efficiency. As for the demographic dividend， Chinas demographic dividend has been disappearing since 2012， which will have significant impact on economic growth. Due to the arrival of Chinas aging society， the time to end the demographic dividend is conservatively estimated to be about 10 years. The number of working-age people aged 15 to 64 in China is 103 million in 2015， and is expected to drop to 958 million by 2030. According to the China Human Capital Report 2016 issued by the China Center for Human Capital and Labor Market Research of the Central University of Finance and Economics on Dec. 10， 2016， the average age of Chinas labor force has risen to 36 years old. In the process of declining demographic dividend， if we do not change the mode of relying on labor force and transform the former labor-intensive industry into technology-intensive industry， it will undoubtedly be a great disaster for the future economic development of China.

The adjustment made by the Central Economic Work Conference to the above situation， which is the new normal we mentioned， is necessary and timely in terms of the emphasis on improving the level of science and technology among the factors of productivity， and the adjustment of industrial structure among the factors of production relations. The most important role of the new normal is to warn the industries with excess capacity or unreasonable structure to achieve the ultimate goal of high quality and sustainable growth through reform. Developing new technological growth points is the key to improving the level of science and technology， such as the Internet industry， which is the intermediate link between consumption and production. Internet economy and innovation economy will occupy more weight in the driving force of future economic growth and will be the key industries vigorously supported by the state， while industries with high energy consumption and excess capacity will face severe survival challenges. Many enterprises rely heavily on economic development， on the adjustment of national policies， and even on the strength of planned economy. It is reported that in 2012， the utilization rate of steel， cement and electrolytic aluminum in China was only 72%， 73.7% and 71.9% respectively， which was significantly lower than the international normal level. Not only traditional industries， but also strategic emerging industries such as photovoltaic and wind power also have serious overcapacity problems. In terms of industrial structure， with the trend of Industrial Differentiation becoming more and more obvious. Excess production capacity is difficult to consume and easy to cause environmental pollution， these projects have exerted great pressure on industrial restructuring and greatly affected the development of Chinas economy.

Investment， consumption and import-export trade， always regarded as the “troika” for Chinas economic growth， are together affecting the state of economic growth. But now， under the current institutional environment， the troika that drives Chinas economic growth has appeared uneven momentum and can not truly play the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resources. As far as the current situation is concerned， although the consumption capacity of the public has been improved， it is far from reaching the ideal state. Export is affected by the international environment， and it is not optimistic compared with the past. The remaining investment is largely invested in infrastructure construction， real estate industry and manufacturing， and these are not considered as emerging industries， so investment in the current institutional environment faces many problems. For a long time， in the troika of Chinas economy， people always attach great importance to investment， especially those around real estate development， so much so that the rise and fall of the property market is regarded by many as an economic barometer. However， high leverage of real estate industry and over-emphasis on the development of real estate and over-investment of private capital in real estate may increase the risk of financial system.

Under the new normal situation， with the central government emphasizing high quality and sustainable development， the only way for enterprises to develop is to do business in a down-to-earth manner， engage in the real economy， grasp technological innovation and explore new markets.

With the proposal of the new normal， we can see the determination of the central government in governing Chinas economy. Looking ahead， we believe that the prospects of Chinas economic development under the new normal background are good. We should look for economic growth points， transform the mode of economic development， and build a green economic system， so that Chinas economy will enable itself to achieve considerable development in a stable way. We also believe that the new normal will continue to play an important role， and Chinas economy will have a new boom in all aspects of the future.

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