New Adjustments in the Regional Security Order: Thailand Perspectives

Director, Thai-Chinese Strategic Research Center (TCSC),National Research Council of Thailand (NRCT)

The current Asia-Pacific order is undergoing a profound change.The Asia-Pacific strategy of the Trump Administration has been redirected.Under the guidance of the statecraft “America First”, the United States raised the banner of unilateralism and trade protectionism, accentuating the preponderance of its military forces and the deterrent effect, and attempting to break the international multilateral trade system and rules and to launch a trade war with China.It brings greater and more uncertainty not only to its Asia-Pacific allies, but also to the security situation of the regional security order.The United States and other important actors of the region, such as India, Japan and Australia, have participated in and initiated various regional security and development agendas including the development and evolution of“Indo-Pacific” based on their respective abilities and interests, which is shifting the geopolitical pattern and situation of the region.

In Southeast Asia, due to the differences in national conditions and endowments, there is a tension of competition and cooperation between domestic and foreign policies in each country.Contrary to the uncertainty of the evolution of the Asia-Pacific order, China-Thailand relationship shows strong mutual trust and resilience, facing new opportunities and challenges.With the belief that “China and Thailand are kith and kin”, we understand and promote the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)cooperation comprehensively.Since then, Thailand and China enhance communication and mutual support in the international and regional multilateral mechanisms, reinforce risks control and crisis management in the people-to-people exchanges,strengthen the IR studies on China-Thailand relations, so as to make their relationship go steady and far for the stability and prosperity of the region.

Looking at the comprehensive changes on Asia’s Security, one can look at 4 main phenomena as a result from the relationship of the “balance of power” between the United States and China, which can be an emerging influences in Asia as New Regional Security Spectrum; namely 1)“Washington consensus 2.0” that makes the United States play a big role on world’s geo-politics; 2)“China-India Axis” as the United States fails on containing the rise of China; 3)“Multipolar balance of power” as the United States still controls and acts as the world’s hegemony; and 4)“New bipolarity” as China gains major influence but there will be many challenges and problems ahead.

Since ASEAN is not monolistic and self-contained, many regional ‘Security Think Tanks’ have addressed their perspectives on‘new regional security spectrums and implied that two superpowers, the United States and China, have been competing with each other for disseminating their influence through FOIP and BRI in order to gain a competitive advantage in each region around the world.Consequently, Impacts, from FOIP and BRI,consists of advantages from a balance of power between the United States and China, as well as benefits from the proposal which both the United States and China offer to ASEAN for exchanging support to their strategy and initiative.Conversely, most ASEAN member states have expressed and awarded of disadvantages from inequality and lack of transparency from both FOIP and BRI, as well as concept and action of ASEAN member countries that might affect the unity of ASEAN.As a small country, Thailand has to manage well the relationship and effective negotiations with FOIP and BRI, and gained mutual benefits for all sides, which are not causing any conflicts among ASEAN and other countries outside the region.

The New Adjustments in the Regional Security Order can be focusing on the new aims and ways of co-operative context of social development for humanity rather than‘power competition’.

Since the joint efforts to build the BRI reflect humanity’s common aspiration for a bright future, some international and regional communities have still not identified with the idea of building a “global community” of shared future advocated by the BRI; while some ask whether it is “Chinese community”.The idea is in fact in harmony with the need for world economic development and the direction of the progress of world civilization.

In ASEAN states, the Initiative is becoming an important platform for building regional connectivity.The BRI upholds its noncompetitive and nonexclusive nature to the fully extent, and reflects the international community’s demand for a global governance system that is fair, egalitarian, open and inclusive, it is an important public product oriented toward today’s world.As UN SG Antonio Guterres has pointed out, the BRI and the UN’s Millennium Development Goals share the same goals, and both are pubic goods offered to the world.The BRI not only promotes international trade and people-to-people exchanges, but also enhances understanding between countries and reduces cultural barriers,and ultimately, achieves peace, harmony and prosperity

Controversy,‘wisdom competition’ based on national principle of ethical thinking and peaceful acting will be the key ways and means for the sharing regional security and future peaceful world.‘Harmony without Uniformity”from Confucius can be seen as the ‘beauty of diversity’ this is the reality of mankind and the nature.The arts of living is how people can live together peacefully under multi-culture, which is a challenge but a possible way in many part of the world, China and Thailand is an example.‘Oriental Wisdom’ emphasizes thinking well,speaking well, and doing well, all of which means Do onto others what you would not have done onto you.

Looking into the future, the adjustment of regional security order should pay more attention to following aspects;

1.Legal system construction

Legal is the moral principle and the law red line that we should never cross in the regional security cooperation.Developing legal cooperation on the basis of relevant international conventions and bilateral treaties of the United Nations, providing institutional safeguards for both sides of economic cooperation at the national level, and effectively creating a positive and friendly international investment and business environment.

2.Expanding Communicating Channels

Since the world is more and more connected, mutual understanding is more crucial.Economic emerging, disrupting society,non-traditional challenges can boot and create more and more unfavorable conditions for humanity.Communicating links both horizontal and vertical linkage within the regional and at the national level should be established or restored, which will help facilitate not only the economic growth and social development but also the regional security as a whole.

3.Promoting the people-to-people tie

The continuous development of closer people-to-people ties has deepened the understanding of the people of various countries in all regions, particularly along the line of BRI.All countries in the region should be willing to establish a multi-tiered mechanism for cultural and people-to-people exchange, and shall cooperate more in protecting historical and cultural heritage, providing foreign and cultural relics protection and promoting joint archeological activities.Finally yet importantly,we should enhance exchanges between political parties, NGOs, women and youth to promote inclusive regional security.