乞力馬扎羅的雪：消失中的赤道奇觀

There are countless reasons why some 40，000 trekkers are drawn to Tanzanias Mount Kilimanjaro each year. Theres the glory of climbing the worlds highest freestanding mountain. The wonder of standing atop Africas highest peak， with the great continent at your feet. And the reward of seeing Kilis majestic summit glaciers， some of the only equatorial glaciers found on Earth. And， in a shocking study published in Science magazine in 2002， the glaciers were supposed to completely disappear between 2015 and 2020. As in， right now.

The good news： glacier experts and ecologists now believe the 11，700-year-old ice is nowhere near extinction in the next 5 years， or even in the next 15. The bad： the glaciers are still continuing to shrink. New figures suggest that they will disappear by 2040.

I saw the great glaciers myself when I climbed Kili last July， and they looked just as Ernest Hemingway famously described them in his book The Snows of Kilimanjaro “As wide as all the world， great， high， and unbelievably white in the sun…” It was hard for me to understand how these giants could ever melt away. Theyre too big， too solid， too impressive.

Reports on why the glaciers are disappearing have varied， with many blaming widespread global warming. But interestingly， their diminishing size has little to do with human interference. The glaciers are lessening because of a natural and inevitable climate change that occurred in the first half of the 19th Century（before cars or major pollution） and no longer brings as much rain to the top of Kili. Its a change that simply made the current conditions unsuitable for equatorial glaciers.

As a climber， I had a hard time imagining any sort of melt happening atop Kilimanjaro. The cold and dryness is so extreme that it cracks your lips and fingertips， despite my wearing five layers of clothing. Pole-pole， the Swahili phrase for “slowly， slowly”， was said over and over again by our guides; each step up was more tiring than the last.

What could reverse the glaciers disappearance？ Unfortunately， not much under human control. Only major snowfall could fill the bare ground between the ice and slow its disappearance， and the last time that kind of snowfall happened was during the first half of the 19th Century. “The loss of Kilimanjaros glaciers is inevitable even without the effect of climate warming，”said Georg Kaser， a glaciologist at the University of Innsbruck in Austria. That is， “unless considerable changes in the Indian Ocean occur within the next 10 to 20 years， causing repeated strong and abundant rainy seasons over East Africa.” The likelihood of this happening is uncertain.

In the meantime， though， these cold， old beauties are now one of the best reasons to climb the famous mountain. Take the Macheme route， one of seven trails to the top. Its particularly known for passing through Kilis multiple climates， from the rainforests at the base to the moorlands in the middle and the high alpine deserts towards the top.

And when you get to the top， dont just focus on the famous welcome sign thats featured in too many celebration-themed selfies. Turn your attention （and your camera） toward the glaciers， which rise up like frozen waves on a sky island—there now， but not for long.

每年，坦桑尼亞境內(nèi)的乞力馬扎羅山總會吸引約四萬名登山客前來朝圣，這不無原因——你可以享受攀登世界最高獨(dú)立山脈的榮耀;你也可以站在非洲之巔感嘆這片雄偉大陸在你腳下的壯景;你還可以對著乞力馬扎羅的雄偉冰峰一飽眼福，它們是地球上僅有的位于赤道地區(qū)的一部分冰川。此外還有一個理由：據(jù)2002年發(fā)表于《科學(xué)》雜志的一頂令人震驚的研究推測，乞力馬扎羅的冰川將在2015年和2020年間完全消失。就是現(xiàn)在。

好消息是：冰川專家和生態(tài)學(xué)家們相信，在未來5年內(nèi)，甚至在未來15年內(nèi)，這些已有11700年歷史的冰川是暫時不會消失的。而壞消息是：它們?nèi)栽诓粩辔s。新的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，它們將在2040年之前消失。

去年七月攀登乞力馬扎羅山時，我親眼見到了這些巨大的冰川。它們就像海明威在其著作《乞力馬扎羅的雪》里形容的那樣：“像整個世界那樣寬廣無垠，在陽光中顯得那么高聳、宏大，而且白得令人難以置信……”我難以理解這些巨大的冰川怎么可能會完全消融。它們是如此巨大，如此堅實，如此令人過目難忘。

關(guān)于冰川消失的原因有各種各樣的報告，許多人把矛頭指向大范圍的全球變暖。然而有趣的是，冰川的萎縮與人類的干擾幾乎沒有關(guān)系。冰川萎縮的原因是19世紀(jì)上半葉（早在汽車和主要污染出現(xiàn)之前）發(fā)生的不可避免的自然氣候變化，這種變化導(dǎo)致乞力馬扎羅山頂?shù)慕涤炅繙p少，使得目前乞力馬扎羅山頂?shù)臈l件不再適合赤道冰川的形成。

作為一名登山客，我有一段時間很難想象乞力馬扎羅的山頂怎么會出現(xiàn)冰雪消融的景象。那里極度寒冷干燥，盡管我穿著五層衣服，但我的嘴唇和指尖還是被凍裂了。我們的向?qū)Х磸?fù)講著一句斯瓦希里短語：“波爾波爾”，意思是“慢點(diǎn)慢點(diǎn)”。每一步都比上一步更加吃力。

有什么辦法可以扭轉(zhuǎn)這些冰川消失的局面嗎？很不幸，人為可控的因素沒有多少。只有大型降雪可以填滿冰川之間裸露的地面，減緩冰川的消失。然而，上一次發(fā)生這種降雪，已是19世紀(jì)上半葉的事了。“即使沒有氣候變暖的影響，乞力馬扎羅冰川的萎縮也是不可避免的。”奧地利因斯布魯克大學(xué)的冰川學(xué)家格奧爾格·卡澤爾說。也就是說，“除非未來10到20年內(nèi)印度洋發(fā)生巨大變化，在東非反復(fù)形成充足的、帶來強(qiáng)降水量的雨季。”而發(fā)生這種情況的可能性無法確定。

不過，這些冰冷而古老的冰川美人目前成為了攀登這座名山的最佳理由之一。你可以走七條登山路徑之一的馬基姆路線到達(dá)山頂。這條路線以途經(jīng)乞力馬扎羅山的多種氣候而聞名——從山腳的熱帶雨林氣候，到山腰的高沼地氣候，再到山頂?shù)母呱缴衬畾夂颉?/p>

到了山頂，可不要只把注意力放在那塊歡迎登頂?shù)闹甘九粕吓叮ㄋ呀?jīng)在慶祝型的自拍里出現(xiàn)太多次了）。把你的目光（和相機(jī)）轉(zhuǎn)向那些冰川吧，它們就像一座空中海島上卷起的凝固的海浪——現(xiàn)在還在你的眼前，但不會太久了。

A Thank-you Note

Once I received a thank-you note from a friend whom I had helped. In the envelope were five lottery tickets that had been scratched， revealing the numbers. “Thank you very much for your help，” the note read. “As a gift， I bought you some lottery tickets sorry you didnt win. ”

有一次，我收到一封感謝信，是一個我曾幫助過的朋友寄來的。信封內(nèi)有五張彩票，都被刮過了，露出了數(shù)字。“非常感謝您的幫助，”信上寫道，“作為禮物，我給您買了些彩票——真遺憾，您沒中獎。”