黃河谷地冬小麥冬前氣象要素變化及與冬小麥性狀的相關(guān)性分析

魏萍 張海春

摘要? 利用青海省黃河谷地貴德縣氣象局觀(guān)測(cè)的2000—2017年冬小麥發(fā)育期等資料以及同期的地面氣象觀(guān)測(cè)資料，采用趨勢(shì)分析方法對(duì)貴德縣冬小麥冬前積溫、日照、降水等氣象要素的變化趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行了分析，并采用相關(guān)分析法對(duì)氣候因子與冬小麥越冬期密度、分蘗數(shù)、大蘗數(shù)、生長(zhǎng)高度等各性狀之間的相關(guān)性進(jìn)行分析。結(jié)果表明，貴德縣冬小麥越冬前0℃、3℃、5℃有效積溫均呈極顯著的增溫趨勢(shì)，冬小麥越冬前生長(zhǎng)日數(shù)隨年際的延長(zhǎng)呈不顯著的減少趨勢(shì)。冬小麥越冬前生長(zhǎng)高度與≥0℃、≥3℃、≥5℃積溫、降水量、平均氣溫呈顯著正相關(guān)，越冬密度與≥0℃、≥3℃、≥5℃積溫、降水量均呈極顯著正相關(guān)。冬小麥越冬前生長(zhǎng)天數(shù)與≥0℃、≥3℃、≥5℃積溫、日照時(shí)數(shù)呈正相關(guān)。冬小麥播種期氣溫呈顯著增溫趨勢(shì)。冬前穩(wěn)定通過(guò)10℃、11℃、12℃、13℃終日均隨年際的延長(zhǎng)呈推后趨勢(shì)，其中冬小麥冬前穩(wěn)定通過(guò)10℃、11℃終日推后趨勢(shì)極顯著。

關(guān)鍵詞 黃河谷地;冬小麥;氣象要素;相關(guān)性分析

中圖分類(lèi)號(hào)：S162.53;S512.11 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A 文章編號(hào)：2095-3305（2019）01-059-03

DOI： 10.19383/j.cnki.nyzhyj.2019.01.022

Changes of Climatic Ele ments before Winter on Winter Wheat in Yellow River Valley and the Rela tionships with Characters of Winter Wheat

WEI Ping? et al（Meteorological Bureau of Guide County，Guide，Qinghai 811799）

Abstract According to the data of winter wheat development period and the ground meteorological observation data from 2000 to 2017 observed by Meteorological Bureau of Guide County in the Yellow River Valley of Qinghai Province， the change trend of accumulated temperature， sunshine and precipitation of winter wheat before winter in Guide County was analyzed by trend analysis method，and the relationships between climatic elements and characters of winter wheat during overwintering was analyzed by correlation analysis method. The effective accumulated temperature（0℃，3℃，5℃） of winter wheat before overwintering in Guide County showed a very significant warming trend， and the growth days before overwintering showed a non-significant decreasing trend with the increase of years. The growth height was positively correlated with accumulated temperature（≥0℃、≥3℃、≥5℃）， precipitation and average temperature，and the overwintering density was positively correlated with accumulated temperature（≥0℃、≥3℃、≥5℃） and precipitation. The growth days were positively correlated with accumulated temperature（≥0℃、≥3℃、≥5℃） and sunshine hours.The temperature of winter wheat at sowing date showed a significant warming trend. The stable days through 10℃，11℃，12℃，13℃ tended to be postponed with the extension of years， and the stable days through 10℃and 11℃ tended to be postponed remarkably.

Key words? ?Yellow River valley; Winter wheat; Climatic elements; Correlation analysis

在中國(guó)，小麥?zhǔn)欠N植面積和總產(chǎn)量?jī)H次于水稻的第2大糧食作物，常年種植面積在2 667萬(wàn)hm2左右，是最重要的商品糧和戰(zhàn)略性安全儲(chǔ)備糧，其生產(chǎn)形勢(shì)對(duì)國(guó)家的糧食安全有著重要影響[1-2]。冬小麥的生長(zhǎng)發(fā)育是在一定的氣候環(huán)境條件下進(jìn)行的，受各種氣象因素的影響較大[3-5]，其中熱量和水分是小麥生長(zhǎng)過(guò)程正常運(yùn)行的重要保證[6]。熱量條件是影響小麥生產(chǎn)的重要因素之一，如果冬前熱量條件發(fā)生變化，必將影響冬小麥適播期及其生長(zhǎng)發(fā)育狀況，最終影響小麥的產(chǎn)量和品質(zhì)[7-11]。……