建庫和氣候變化對襄陽站徑流的影響評估

楊娜 趙亦童 黃伊涵 韓翠 勞曉璨

摘要 根據襄陽站日徑流資料（1940—2012年），分別采用Mann-Kendell檢驗方法和RVA方法分析該站點的徑流變化特征，認為襄陽站的年徑流量呈現出一定程度的減少趨勢，以夏、秋兩季的減少最為明顯，通過對月水文情勢的變化評估認為徑流年內分布的變化主要來自于丹江口水庫的調豐補枯作用。進一步根據襄陽站以上流域的氣象觀測數據定性分析降水和氣溫的變化趨勢，發現建壩后徑流的演變與氣候變化關系密切。在此基礎上建立了徑流與降水及氣溫的線性回歸模型，通過對徑流的模擬進一步驗證了徑流演變與當地氣候變化密切相關，但由于人類活動影響的加劇，其相關性在1985年后有所減弱。

關鍵詞 徑流;氣候變化;建庫;影響評估;襄陽站

中圖分類號 P333文獻標識碼 A

文章編號 0517-6611（2019）11-0064-03

doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2019.11.020

開放科學（資源服務）標識碼（OSID）：

Abstract According to the daily runoff data of Xiangyang Station （1940-2012）， MannKendell test method and RVA method were used to analyze the runoff variation characteristics of the site.It was believed that the annual runoff of Xiangyang Station showed a certain degree of decreasing trend with the most obvious reduction in summer and autumn.Through the assessment of the change of monthly hydrological situation， it was believed that the variation of runoff distribution during the year mainly came from the adjustment and replenishment effect of Danjiangkou Reservoir.According to the meteorological observation data of the basin above the Xiangyang Station， the trend of rainfall and temperature was qualitatively analyzed.It was found that the evolution of runoff after dam construction was closely related to climate change.Based on this， a linear regression model of runoff， rainfall and temperature was established.It was further verified by the simulation of runoff that runoff evolution is closely related to local climate change， but its correlation had weakened after 1985 due to the intensification of human activities.

Key words Runoff;Climate change;Reservoir construction;Impact assessment;Xiangyang Station

基金項目 江蘇省高等學校大學生創新創業訓練計劃項目（2017103 00045Z，201410300105）。

作者簡介 楊娜（1983—），女，河南駐馬店人，副教授，博士，從事水文氣象方面研究。

收稿日期 2018-10-16

河流系統是地球的大動脈，是生物循環的重要通道，具有調節氣候、改善生態環境以及維護生物多樣性等功能[1]。研究表明，天然河道的水文過程與流量過程、水位高低以及年際變化特征等均會對河流生態產生重要影響[2-3]。襄陽站地處漢江中下游，是漢江下游的四大產卵場之一，受氣候變化和人類活動的加劇影響，漢江襄陽段水環境問題日益突出[4]。尤其是丹江口水庫的……