涓流細語

編輯：賈朋群

“If you look back in time to see when our forecast scale was roughly 30 percent less than today, it was 1980.”

“如果你想時間倒流，感覺一下我們的預報水準較今天大約降低30%，那就回到1980年。”

——針對3月美國政府拍賣5G頻段一事，NOAA執行局長Neil Jacobs指出，這一舉措將降低30%的預報準確性，相當于40年預報技術進步的幅度。他在美國國會如此向議員們解釋拍賣頻率與預報的關系。

“The mission is not being designed to police people’s emissions… I think what countries need is a tool and transparency in observations of emissions at city scale and even down to power plant scale. They need information to inform policy decisions.”

“項目的設計并非旨在監督人類的排放……我想各國需要的是一個工具，以及在城市尺度甚或發電廠尺度上排放觀測的透明度。他們需要信息來支持決策。”

——近日，歐盟開始謀劃發射監測各國二氧化碳排放的衛星陣列。如果這一計劃得以實施，將于2025年升空的該衛星觀測系統能給出更為詳盡的全球排放圖，并有望更好地解決國家報告與實際觀測的排放量之間存在差距等問題。談及本項目的意義，負責設計和實施該計劃的歐空局地球和排放部負責人Mark Drinkwater如此進行了解釋。

“The 2019 Refinement provides an updated and sound scientific basis for supporting the preparation and continuous improvement of national greenhouse gas inventories.”

“2019年修訂給出更新和充足的科學基礎，以支持國家溫室氣體清單的準備和持續改進。”

——作為IPCC AR6周期最重要的評估活動之一，聯合國更新版溫室氣體排放指南日前發布。針對這一工作的意義，IPCC專門工作組聯合主席Kiyoto Tanabe如是說。

“ESA is happy to include the TRUTHS mission in our package of programme proposals for Space19+. It is a very interesting mission that will bring many benefits to better understand climate change and offer well-calibrated measurements for crossreference with other missions. It is now up to ESA Member States to take up this offer and participate in this exciting programme.”

“ESA很高興在我們提交給Space19+的一攬子計劃建議中包括了TRUTHS。這是一個很有意義的項目，在更好認識氣候變化和向其他使命提供校準后觀測用于相互比較等方面受益。現在就等ESA成員國認可這個項目并加入這個令人激動的項目之中。”

——歐空局在地球觀測方面最新提出T R U T H S（Traceable Radiometry Underpinning Terrestrial- and Helio- Studies，可追蹤輻射線測定支持地球和太陽研究）項目建議，并以提交給計劃在2019年11月27—28日在西班牙召開的ESA的Space19+（空間19+）部長委員會討論。ESA的地球觀測項目主任Josef Aschbacher如此熱情為TRUTHS項目敲邊鼓。

“In areas like Europe, C-band is not that popula. But in those areas where you have a lot of rain, satellite networks still very much rely on C-band and if that part of the spectrum were to be allocated to 5G, it would be quite a challenge for the region to adapt.。I see less of a problem with the higher bands because they are typically not very much used or they haven’t been allocated to any defense organizations.”

“在歐洲這樣的區域，C波段不是很流行。但是在降水很多的區域，衛星探測網非常依賴于C波段，如果該波段的一部分分配給5G，這些區域適應起來就是很大的挑戰。目前更高譜段的問題還不多，這些譜段沒有被頻繁使用，也還沒有分配給任何安全組織。”

——近日因美國拍賣的5G頻段與氣象衛星使用的頻段重復而帶來的爭執，是否在5G已經開始實施的亞洲也存在？國際媒體報道了韓國技術人員的上述看法，其中C波段是指從4 Gigahertz（GHz）到8 GHz頻段。

“We will set ourselves up to essentially crowdsource forecast model development work. We don’t claim the wins. We’re not actively out there saying look how good we did.”

“我們將采取本質上為眾包的模式開發工作。我們不宣稱勝利。我們并沒有熱衷于說，看看我們做得有多好。”

——美國NOAA換代預報模式GFS-FV3，在經過漫長的試驗運行后即將投入業務化運行，NOAA執行局長Neil Jacobs針對這一事件與媒體進行了交流。就新模式依然沒有超過兩大競爭對手（歐洲中期預報中心和和英國氣象局）的模式，執行局長表示認可，即換代后的模式，在世界上依然位于第三位，但這位曾經在松下公司領導模式開發工作的執行局長認為，低調的FV3也帶來了改變的契機。

“It is a disaster for the United States to remove itself voluntarily from the international conversation around global warming pollutant reduction, even for 2 years. We don’t have 2 years to sit on our hands. We don’t have 2 years to fail to lead [on this issue]. Every single month that goes by that we don’t make the decisions necessary to save this planet from existential harm is a month that we get closer to the point of no return [from the impacts of climate change].”

“對美國來說，撤出國際全球變化減少污染條約是一場災難，即使是剛剛兩年。這兩年里我們沒有參與。這兩年里我們喪失了[對這個問題的]領導權。過去的每個月里，我們沒能做出挽救出現的傷害這個星球的決策，也就是一步一步接近[氣候變化影響的]不可返回點。”

——2017年6月1日，特朗普宣布美國退出氣候變化《巴黎協定》。兩年后美國各界審視這一決策時，大多表達對這一決定的失望之情。美國參議院Chris Murphy在媒體上公開批評這樣的做法，具有很好的代表性。

（from back cover）

Advance Report 2019: Meteorology Making Cities Safer

88 Wang Yanqing, Liu Dunxun, Xu Wenwen/ Reform and Development Practices and Outlook on Shenzhen Meteorology

94 Lan Hongping, Liu Dunxun, Sun Shiyang, Wei Xiaolin, Xu Ting/ The Practice and Prospect of Constructing Precise and Intelligent Forecasting Service System in Shenzhen

100 Chen Yuanzhao, Lan Hongping, Liu Kun/ Recent Development of Nowcasting Techniques in Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau

108 He Yuhua, Liu Donghua, Zhang Lijie, Mao Xia/Development and Outlook of the Meteorological Informatization in Shenzhen

112 Li Lei/ Urban Climate Services for Sustainable Development of Shenzhen Municipality

119 Zhang Li, Li Lei, Shen Jie, Zhang Jie/ The Effect of Industrial Policy on Air Quality Improvement of Shenzhen in Recent 39 Years

124 Jiang Yin, Chen Xunlai, Zhu Jiangshan, Wang Deli, Chen Yuanzhao/ Application of Shenzhen Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast System in Heavy Rainfall of South China

132 Chen Xunlai, Chen Yuanzhao, Zhao Chunyang, Zhang Ke/ Application of Gradient Boost Decision Tree in Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation

138 Zhang Li, Li Lei, Liang Biling, Wang Mingjie, Feng Bingfeng, Chen Linfeng/ Spatial-Temporal Characteristics and Background Circulations of Local PM2.5Pollution Episodes in the Pearl River Delta

144 Jiang Chenglin, Huang Haohui, Chen Wenchao, Zhang Guangyu/ Turbulence Characteristics of the Landing Process of Severe Typhoon Nesat (1117)

149 Zhang Chunsheng, Lu Chao, Zhong Xiaoyong, Gao Ruiquan, Liu Aiming, Gu Ruichang / Preliminary Analysis of Near-Surface Flux Data from Meteorological Gradient Observation Tower in Shenzhen

153 Wang Deli, Kong Fanyou, Wang Hong, Chen Xunlai/Effect of the Dual-Polarization Radar Data Assimilation on Rainfall Simulation of Typhoon Hato

160 Zhang Li, Liang Biling, Li lei/ Ozone Pollution Meteorological Condition Index in Shenzhen and Its Operational Application

166 Chen Shenpeng/ Multi-Year Variation of Precipitation and Rain Island Effect in Shenzhen

171 Lu Xiaoxiong, Li Qinglan, Chen Shenpeng, Zhang Kai,Sun Liqun, Chen Qian, Zhang Lijie/ Temporal and Spatial Precipitation Characteristics in Shenzhen from 2008 to 2017

179 He Lunkai, Sun Liqun, Li Qinglan, Xie Kun, Wang Shuxin,Wang Deli, Xu Qian/ Comparison of Spatial Interpolation Methods for Temperature in Shenzhen

185 Du Yaodong, Duan Hailai, Liu Chang, Luo Xiaoling/Research Advances in Climate Change Impacts on Human Health in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area

190 Cai Ran, Luo Xin, Gao Yan, Du Qijiang, Zhuang Hongbo,Peng Xiaohong, Fu Chunhua/ Induced Current and Charge at the Top of High Buildings During Lightning Return Stroke

195 Yang Yuexin, Guo Hongbo, Qin Zilong, Su Linzhi, Luo xin/ The Lightning Disaster Risk Zoning Based on Multi-Source Data in Shenzhen

199 Wei Xiaolin, Chen Xunlai, Jiang Yin, Li Hui, Mao Xia/ A Novel Crowd Innovation Mechanism for Intelligent Short-Term Heavy Rain Nowcasting

204 Zeng Qingfeng, Gao Ruiquan, Wen Jingmin, Li Lei, Xu Lei, Tang Yang, Lai Xin/ The Management Mode of Urban Unit Microclimate Environment Observation Based on Internet of Things

209 Gao Ruiquan, Zheng Hui, Zhong Xiaoyong, Luo Hongyan, Ma Xiaoxin, Liu Xing, Xia Jianbo/ Realization and Preliminary Application of Intelligent Second-Level Observation at Automatic Weather Station

213 Deng Ping, Zhang Qinghua, Zhang Yulong/ A Parallel I/O Optimization Technique for Improving the Performance of Meteorological Numerical Models

218 Zhang Lijie, Hu Juan, Zhang Kai, Li You, Zheng Hui/Classification and Characteristics of Meteorological Research Achievements in Shenzhen in Recent 10 Years

222 Li Hailong, Cao Mei, Wen Fengjie/ Construction of Intelligent Meteorology Service Model Based on the Behavior of Shenzhen Meteorology Mobile and Internet Users

225 Sun Shiyang, Shen Danna, Dong Hao/ Exploration of Meteorological Forecast Service Model Based on Quality Development

230 Hu Juan, Li You, Zhang Lijie, Zhang Kai, Zheng Hui/Design and Prospect of Online Management Platform for Multi-Approach Meteorological Service Data

234 Wang Shuxin, Chen Yuanzhao, Zhang Shuting/ Acquisition and Application of Social Observation Data Based on Web Crawler Technology

238 Zhai Xiao, Xue Huaxing/ Application of the Monitoring Method of Query Normal Height in Shenzhen Airport

240 Luo Xin, Cai Ran, Zhuang Hongbo, Su Linzhi, Guo Hongbo, Yang Yuexin/ Design and Realization of Lightning Early Warning Service System Based on Urban Comprehensive Observation

243 Guo Hongbo, Zhuang Hongbo, Du Qijiang, Cai Ran,Yang Yuexin/ Thoughts on the Construction of Lightning Protection Safety Management Information System