基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的易流態(tài)貨物運(yùn)輸船傾覆/擱淺事故原因探析

摘 要：近年來，易流態(tài)貨物海上運(yùn)輸船傾覆和擱淺事故時有發(fā)生，并造成了較為嚴(yán)重的人員傷亡和財(cái)產(chǎn)損失。本文基于2005-2015年間易流態(tài)貨物運(yùn)輸船傾覆和擱淺事故案例，采用貝葉斯理論建立起易流態(tài)貨物運(yùn)輸船傾覆和擱淺事故貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)，經(jīng)過推理計(jì)算得到易流態(tài)貨物運(yùn)輸船事故發(fā)生因果關(guān)系的概率分布以及最大致因鏈。研究成果對易流態(tài)貨物海運(yùn)事故的預(yù)防提供了有力參考。

關(guān)鍵詞：易流態(tài)貨物；船舶傾覆和擱淺；貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)；最大致因鏈

中圖分類號：TP183 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識碼：A 文章編號：2096-4706（2018）12-0001-04

Analysis of Cause for Overturning / Grounding Accident for Transports of

Cargoes that May Liquefy Based on Bayesian Networks

HE Yu，ZHANG Jianwei，ZHOU Wenjie，XIONG Hao，WU Tianqi

（School of Port and Transportation Engineering，Zhejiang Ocean University，Zhoushan 316022，China）

Abstract：In recent years，the overturning and grounding accidents for marine transports of cargoes which may liquefy often occur，which have caused serious casualties and property loss. In this paper，based on the overturning and grounding accidents for marine transports of cargoes which may liquefy from 2005 to 2015，it adopted the Bayesian Theory to construct the Bayesian networks for overturning and grounding accidents for marine transports of cargoes which may liquefy often occur，and then achieved the causal relationship between the overturning and grounding accidents for marine transports of cargoes which may liquefy and the maximum causal chain by probabilistic distribution. The research results contribute to the prevention of marine accidents for marine transports of cargoes which may liquefy.

Keywords：cargoes that may liquefy；ship overturning and grounding；Bayesian network；maximum causal chain

0 引 言

根據(jù)《國際海運(yùn)固體散裝貨物規(guī)則》（2011），包括鐵精礦、紅土鎳礦等在內(nèi)的相當(dāng)一部分固體散裝貨物屬于易流態(tài)貨物，該類貨物由一定比例的細(xì)微顆粒和水分組成。如其含水量超過一定水平，在外部載荷激勵下可能發(fā)生流態(tài)化進(jìn)而形成流態(tài)，給易流態(tài)貨物海上安全運(yùn)輸帶來隱患。由此導(dǎo)致的海運(yùn)事故已引起國際和國內(nèi)社會的高度關(guān)注，因此各國都相繼出臺了相關(guān)管理規(guī)定，當(dāng)前主要通過控制貨物含水量來保障易流態(tài)貨物海上運(yùn)輸安全。但易流態(tài)貨物種類眾多，屬性各不相同，單一通過控制含水量尚不能有效杜絕易流態(tài)貨物海上運(yùn)輸事故的發(fā)生。

因此，為深入探究易流態(tài)貨物海上運(yùn)輸事故發(fā)生的因果關(guān)系，筆者對2005-2015年的世界范圍內(nèi)易流態(tài)貨物海上運(yùn)輸事故案例進(jìn)行整理分析，基于貝葉斯理論建立起易流態(tài)貨物運(yùn)輸船傾覆和擱淺事故貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)。……