Major Changes of China-U.S.Relations and their Impacts on the Asia-Pacific Security

By Meng Xiangqing

Council Member,CPAPD

Professor,Institute of Strategic Studies,PLANational Defense University

Since Trump in power for about one year and half,the United States has released several documents including the National Security Strategy report,the National Defense Strategy report,Nuclear Posture Review,etc.which have made new judgments on the U.S.security threats,and new adjustments on its diplomatic strategy.Regarding relations with China,the Trump Administration has frequently adopted tactics,imposed sustained pressure in many areas and aspects,launched disputes one after another,even challenged the bottom line for the“one China”principle,and made it more and more difficult for China and the United States to control differences,and to resolve crisis.Currently,scholars in both China and the United States as well as the international media take pessimistic attitude to China-U.S.relations.

I.The Asia-Pacific Security to a great extent determined by China-U.S.relations

In overview of the Asia-Pacific security situation in the past 70 years,its developments and changes are determined by many factors,but China-U.S.relationship factor carries fairly heavy weight,which can be divided into two phases.The first phase is from the founding of New China in 1949 to 1979 as China and the United States established diplomatic relations.During this phase,the basic feature of the Asia-Pacific security was confrontational,which is earmarked by China-USSR alliance signed in February 1950,and the U.S.-Japan military alliance signed in April 1951.Then,the two confrontational blocs in different forms and at the different levels were expanding in the Asia-Pacific region.Down to the 1960s,the United States established a military alliance system,while the China-USSR alliance existed in name only,not long afterward China and the United States took onto a reconciliatory path.The second phase is about 40 years from establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries in 1979 up to now.During this phase,the Asia-Pacific security situation is showing cooperation from confrontation,and the cooperation is the mainstream,which has brought about 40-year basic stability and peace,and also the backdrop for the region to maintain development and prosperity.The Asia-Pacific regional sustained development and prosperity are historic and leave an impact on the world.Whether the future Asia-Pacific regional stability and peace can be maintained is a matter of concern to the entire world,and is also one of the important reasons for China-U.S relations to attract more and more attention.

Undoubtedly,over the past 40 years,China and the United States are not allies,but have established very close strategic cooperation.The substantial contents of this close strategic cooperation shaped during the medium-and later period of the Cold War are analyzed by many systematic academic studies in both China and the United States,and are being proved by more and more decoded files.The quality of Sino-U.S.strategic cooperation in some areas even surpassed that between the United States and its European allies,which is defined by some as “very close relations”.The profound changes of the international situation and geopolitics produced by the end of the Cold War once triggered a negative inclination for the Sino-U.S.strategic relations,hence their relations have become uncertain in the Asia-Pacific region.In the Asia-Pacific region,there is no possibility for a sharp contradiction to emerge between the United States and Japan,but there is a possibility between China and the United States.The contradictions and even conflicts China has with Japan,Vietnam,the Philippines,etc.on territorial disputes will not change the basic feature and security order of the Asia-Pacific security situation,but if China-U.S relations see a fundamental change even a reversal of the bilateral relations,the Asia-Pacific security may be overturned,a confrontational security pattern may come into being.

With the end of the Cold War,the special Sino-U.S.strategic cooperation shaped during the Cold War late period also disappeared.But the two sides soon began to search for a path and means to maintain cooperation in strategic security areas,both sides try to learn its counterpart intentions.Both countries have made proposals for defining the Sino-U.S.relations,for example, building strategic partnership, building constructive and cooperative partnership, be stakeholders,establishing constructive cooperation,and then a new type of major countries relationship proposed by China,etc.Comparing these concepts,and looking at the exchanges and diplomatic efforts as both sides continuously change their definitions for the bilateral relations,it is not difficult to find that there are obvious different identities of the two counties on defining the bilateral relations.However,it can be certain that the decision-makers of the two countries also wish to maintain the cooperation momentum and continuously carry out cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region to avoid confrontation no matter what concrete concept to use.Meanwhile,the two countries can find basic impetus and foundation for cooperation,for example,from economics and trade cooperation to anti-terrorism still to regional security,global issues,etc.But,it seems that all these are changing these days,the anti-terrorism driver is weakening,the economics and trade as the ballast stone is shaking,the U.S.side is becoming less and less interested in global issues such as climate change,etc.The Korean Peninsula nuclear issue is having an opportunity of settlement.Although decision-makers of the two countries still vigorously maintain cooperation momentum,yet,regarding settlement of contradictions and differences through dialogue and cooperation,the U.S.side expresses attitude more than adopting policies,speaks louder than acting,but choosing to counter China and putting pressure on China become more prominent.

In overview of history,China-U.S.relations,from confrontation to reconciliation to normalization still to increasing maturity,has experienced a path of twists and turns.China-U.S.relations is full of contradictions and sometimes very sharp contradictions,but also many historic opportunities for cooperation,and cooperation is accompanied with contradictions in the process.The history proves again and again whether the two countries develop cooperation or pursue confrontation can find enough reasons,but ultimately choose cooperation.That is because those statesmen and scholars working responsibly for peoples of the two countries,and for regional and global peace and security clearly know that only cooperation is the only way for the two countries to get on well with each other,otherwise a disaster will be generated not only for the two countries,but for the Asia-Pacific peace and global peace at large.

II.The U.S.China policy is under a major readjustment

Putting it simply,from readjusting the past attempt to shaping China to putting comprehensive pressure with the focus on strength competition,is this readjustment a quantitative change or qualitative change?Or partially a qualitative change?Fundamental or general?Strategic or tactical?It is difficult to draw a definite and unanimous conclusion currently.Since the readjustment is not completed,and we need to keep a continuous watch.

The U.S.National Security Strategy report clearly states that in the face of worldwide growing political,economic,and military competition,the United States needs to reconsider its past policy.This policy is based on such assumption i.e.,the engagement with the counterpart and integrating it into the international organizations and global trade,and enabling it to become a good participant and trusty cooperative partner,this prerequisite is proved wrong to a great extent. Though no China is named there,yet,its reference is quite clear.The Trump’s basic concept of pursuing peace with strength determines its China policy focus is to carry out competition in strength with China, and impose comprehensive pressures in many areas and no longer attempt to shape China.In terms of these,the U.S.China policy is under a fundamental readjustment,which is not completed yet.Because of the megatrend featured by rapid growth of China’s strength and the gap with the United States continuously narrowing,to maintain strength superiority over China is the long-term focus of the U.S.policy to China.It is to maintain strength superiority over China that the Trump Administration strengthens its competition with China. It is true that the U.S.National Security Strategy report states that competition doe not always mean hostility,and nor necessarily leads to conflicts,but the conservative radical thinking and forceful style of work of the Trump Administrative team may trigger Sino-U.S.vicious competition.For example, economically, the Trump Administration acts willfully,and launches the trade war,which shakes the ballast stone for China-U.S.relations,but more and more people believe that the U.S.Administration’s US$50 billion tariff focuses on China’s high-tech products,restraining China’s investment,and not on settling the U.S.trade deficits with China,but aims to slow down China’s high-tech progress and growing strength steps,so as to reach the goal of maintaining U.S.strength superiority over China.This policy based on the relative returns thinking does not only severely obstruct the development of China-U.S.economic and trade relations,but will intensify the Sino-U.S. strategic competition,even vicious competition.From a long-term perspective,harming others is not in the interests of oneself.The U.S.Hawk-led diplomacy and security team will acquiesce in or even wink at the U.S.military to increase pressure on China in the South China Sea,which is bound to increase spiral confrontation between the military of the two countries;while the U.S.-Japan-Australia-India growing substantial security cooperation under the Indo-Pacific strategy framework is bound to enhance the risks of the regional geo-political split and confrontation. What is more dangerous is the Taiwan Travel Act,adopted by the U.S.Congress and signed by the Trump Administration,will upgrade the ranking of officials exchanges between the United States and Taiwan.The 2019 Defense Authorization Act passed by the Congress demands strengthening of the Taiwan military strength,and the United States to designate high-level military officials to visit Taiwan in line with Taiwan Relations Act and the Taiwan Travel Act.All these acts prove that the U.S.side actively plays the Taiwan card,which will inevitably produce severe impacts on the relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits,and China-U.S relations.

III.Cooperation is the only option for China-U.S.relations

The future China-U.S. relations is determined by many factors,among which there are conventional variables and non-conventional variables.The conventional variables include the balance of strength,the strategic foundation (economics and trade relations, security cooperation, etc.) and strategic environment(constraints of domestic interests groups on foreign policy;impacts of external factors such as Iran,Ukraine,the Philippines,the DPRK,etc.on China-U.S.relations)between the two countries.The most noticeable non-conventional variable is the Trump Administration’s China policy direction.No matter how things are changing,the decisive factor determining China-U.S.relations direction are as follows:

One is the Taiwan issue.The Taiwan issue is the most sensitive,most central and most prominent issue in China-U.S relations.Since the U.S.Administrations recognize the“one China”principle after the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries,and basically abide by the consensus and the bottom line reached by the two countries,the Taiwan issue is brought under control to a certain extent over the past decades,so no major crisis has emerged,or any emerged problem is finally mitigated through bilateral strategic exchanges and communications,and at least does not get out of control.It is true that disruptions often occur,but the bottom line is never broken.However,since Trump came to power,this bottom line may be broken up at any time.Trump had a phone call with Tsai Ing-wen,clamoring to make a deal with the Taiwan issue and trade issues;the U.S.Congress adopted the Defense Authorization Act 2018,and especially passed the Taiwan Travel Act,and hitting for a sale of F-35 fighters,etc.All these are acts on the red line seriously violating the “one China”principle,having sent out wrong signals to the Taiwan separatists,subjectively playing a role in encouraging the Taiwan separatists.It is noticeable that the “one China”principle is getting weaker within the current U.S.Administration.The Taiwan Travel Act is a gesture for the U.S.Administration to expresses its strong dissatisfaction with China's rise,an open declaration that the United States no longer abides by the previous framework of Sino-U.S.relations and is ready to use various means to strengthen the games with China,and also U.S.practical action to make new tools for exerting pressure on China.If the U.S.Administration continues to follow the Taiwan Travel Act,it will face much greater challenges,shocks and impacts than all the current challenges in China-U.S. relations.Unfortunately,it seems that the domestic academic and political circles in the United States do not take this seriously,which is precisely the most dangerous thing in Sino-U.S.relations.

Second,the framework and positioning of the Sino-U.S.relations.China hopes to continuously promote the construction of Sino-U.S.new-type major-country relations,and emphasizes the importance of mutual respect,and win-win cooperation from the very beginning of its contacts with Trump's team.During his first visit to China,Secretary of State Tillerson also expressed the willingness of the United States to develop relations with China in a spirit of non-conflict,mutual respect and win-win cooperation.However,under domestic pressure,Trump's position began to back out,proposing to develop"constructive,result-oriented"Sino-U.S.relations.At present,the development of"partnership"is the meeting point of both sides,but there is still lack of consensus on its connotation and interaction principle based on in-depth and high-quality dialogues.Now the biggest uncertain factor is the direction of Trump's China policy.The key issue remains how the United States views China's rise and its strategic intentions.If China's rise is regarded as the greatest challenge to the United States and all China's domestic and foreign policies aimed at the United States,the framework and orientation of the Sino-U.S.relations will continue to develop in a negative direction.We are all waiting to see where it will go.

In a word,the Sino-U.S.relations are at a new crossroads.Both China and the United States have entered a new era,and need new thinking and new measures.They need not only high-level leadership consensus and guidance,but also new foundations and momentum,and also call for greater efforts in controlling differences and crises.Under the background of the current international situation showing the basic characteristics of change and chaos,a great opportunity for peaceful settlement of the DPRK nuclear issue and the complex security situation in the Asia-Pacific region,the impact of Sino-U.S.relations on the regional situation will become greater.History and reality have proved and will prove repeatedly that cooperation is the only option for the Sino-U.S.relations.Cooperation is not only related to the interests of the two countries,but also to peace of the Asia-Pacific region and the world at large.In this sense,we should remain optimistic about the future Sino-U.S.relations.