美國“神奇”土撥鼠可預測天氣？

Its only been in the past 60 or so years that humans have been able to rely on television meteorologists for weather predictions. Before Al Roker， the Babylonians looked at cloud formations； in 300 BC， the ancient Chinese had a calendar broken into 24 festivals， each with its own unique weather patterns.

直到大約60年前，人類才得以通過電視上的氣象學者來獲得天氣預報。在美國氣象播報員阿爾·洛克之前，巴比倫人是通過觀看云體形成來預知天氣的；在公元前300年，古代中國人將一年分成24個節氣，每個節氣都有各自獨特的氣候模式。

Today we use satellites and other costly equipment to gauge our environment， examining changes in the atmosphere and running sophisticated computer models. And sometimes， we just stare at a groundhog.

今天我們用人造衛星和其他昂貴的設備來監測我們的環境、考察氣候變化并運行精密的計算機模型。不過有時候，我們只看土撥鼠來預知天氣。

Every February 2， a doughy groundhog named Punxsutawney Phil briefly emerges from his winter hibernation to have a look around. If he sees his shadow， that means there will be six more weeks of winter. If he doesnt， we can assume that warm weather is coming

每年2月2日，一只軟乎乎、名叫龐克瑟托尼·菲爾的土撥鼠會從冬眠的洞里露出頭來四下看一看。如果它看到了自己的影子，那就意味著冬天還要持續6周。如果它沒看到自己的影子，我們就可以認為溫暖的天氣即將來臨。

The ritual has been carried out in Punxsutawney， Pennsylvania every year since 1887. Relying on Phil is actually not much better than flipping a coin—hes right an estimated 64.4 percent of the time—but clearly someone at one time believed a groundhog had predictive abilities. Who？ And why？

自1887年以來，這一儀式每年都要在美國賓夕法尼亞州的龐克瑟托尼舉行。事實上，靠菲爾來預測天氣的成功率不比拋硬幣高多少——這只土撥鼠預測天氣的準確率約為64.4%——但顯然有人曾一度認為土撥鼠有預測天氣的能力。是誰呢？為什么會這么認為？

To understand Phils current status， it helps to know that superstition and weather have had a long association. Christians， for example， received candles blessed by clergymen on Candlemas. If the skies were cloudy that day， warm weather was upcoming； if the sun was out， winter would stay.

要明白菲爾目前的身份，最好能了解迷信和天氣之間長久以來的關聯。舉例來說，基督教徒會在圣燭節收到牧師祝福過的蠟燭。如果圣燭節那天是多云，說明溫暖的天氣很快就要來到；如果太陽出來了，冬天將會持續下去。

In Europe， the idea that winters duration could be foretold was carried over to animal behavior. Hibernating animals like bears， marmots， and hedgehogs were observed to see when theyd emerge from their dens.

在歐洲，預測冬天持續時間和動物行為扯到了一起。人們會觀察熊、旱獺、刺猬等冬眠動物，看它們會不會從洞里出來。

In Germany， the weather was anticipated by badgers. When Germans began settling in Pennsylvania， however， badgers werent so readily available： The easiest hibernating animal to locate was the groundhog. In 1887， a newspaper editor began spreading the idea that one groundhog in particular， Punxsutawney Phil， was a meteorological wonder. Before long， the entire country became preoccupied with Phils prediction， and an annual tradition was born.

在德國，天氣是由獾來預測的。然而，當德國人在美國賓夕法尼亞州定居時，獾并沒有那么好找：最容易找到的冬眠動物是土撥鼠。1887年，一位報社編輯開始傳播一個信息：有一只特殊的名叫龐克瑟托尼·菲爾的土撥鼠是預測天氣的奇才。沒過多久，整個國家都被菲爾的預測迷住了，一項年度傳統就此誕生。

Phil isnt the only one in the business of long-range forecasting. The Old Farmers Almanac， a yearly digest of upcoming weather patterns for large geographical areas， is prepared up to 18 months in advance. Its editors claim an 80 percent accuracy rate， though some meteorologists dispute the viability of assessing weather more than two weeks out.

從事長期天氣預報的不只有菲爾。《老農民年鑒》是一本預測大范圍地區天氣的年度出版物，每年都是提前18個月準備。這本年歷的編輯聲稱準確率有80%，盡管一些氣象學家質疑提前兩周以上預測天氣是否可行。

Last year， Phil “predicted” six more weeks of winter. It turned out to be the second-warmest February on record.

去年，菲爾“預測”冬天還將持續6周。結果，去年2月份的天氣是有史以來第二暖和的。

Word Study

unique /ju'ni?k/ adj. 唯一的；獨一無二的

Everyone's fingerprints unique

gauge /ɡe?d?/ v. （用儀器）測量

sophisticated /s?'f?st?ke?t?d/ adj. 復雜巧妙的；先進的； 精致的

hibernation /?ha?b?'ne??n/ n. 冬眠；蟄伏

association /??s???i'e??n/ n. 聯合；聯系

preoccupied /pri'?kjupa?d/ adj. 全神貫注的，入神的

viability /?va??'b?l?t?/ adv. 可行性；生存能力