Will Robot Cars Drive Traffic Congestion off a Cliff1?

By Joan Lowy

Self-driving cars are expected to usher in a new era of mobility, safety and convenience. The problem, say transportation researchers, is that people will use them too much.

[2] Experts foresee robot cars chauffeuring2chauffeur 開車運送，為別人當汽車司機。children to school, dance class and baseball practice. The disabled and elderly will have new mobility. Commuters will be able to work, sleep,eat or watch movies on the way to the office. People may stay home more because they can send their cars to do things like pick up groceries they’ve ordered online.

[3] Researchers believe the number of miles driven will skyrocket3skyrocket 突升，猛漲。. It’s less certain whether that will mean a corresponding surge4surge 大量。in traffic congestion,but it’s a clear possibility.

無人駕駛汽車有望引領一個兼具流動性、安全性和便利性的新時代。交通研究人員表示，問題在于，人們將會過度使用它們。

[2]專家預測，機器人汽車可以送孩子們上學、上舞蹈課、去練習棒球。殘疾人和老人將會有新的移動方式。通勤者能在去辦公室的路上工作、睡覺、吃東西或者看電影。人們待在家里的時間可能會變長，因為他們可以讓車去做很多事情，例如去取在網上訂購的物品。

[3]研究人員認為，駕車出行的英里數將會急劇增加。這是否意味著交通堵塞會相應加劇還不太確定，但這種可能性很明顯。

[4] Gary Silberg, an auto industry expert at accounting firm KPMG, compares it to the introduction of smart phones. “It will be indispensable to your life,” he said. “It will be all sorts of things we can’t even think of today.”

[5] Based on focus group5focus group 焦點小組（選自各階層，討論某專項問題；所得信息常為市場研究者或某政黨所用）。in Atlanta,Denver and Chicago, KPMG predicts autonomous “mobility-on-demand”services—think Uber and Lyft without a driver—will result in double-digit6double-digit 兩位數的。increases in travel by people in two age groups: those over 65, and those 16 to 24.

[6] Vehicles traveled a record 3.1 trillion miles in the U.S. last year. Increased trips in autonomous cars by those two age groups would boost miles traveled by an additional 2 trillion miles annually by 2050, KPMG calculated. If self-driving cars without passengers start running errands7run errands 跑腿兒；處理雜事。, the increase could be double that.

[7] And if people in their middle years, when driving is at its peak, also increase their travel, that yearly total could reach 8 trillion miles. “This could be massive,” Silberg said.

[8] Driverless cars are expected to make travel both safer and cheaper.With human error responsible for 90 percent of traffic accidents, they’re expected to sharply reduce accidents,driving down the cost of insurance and repairs.

[4]畢馬威會計事務所的汽車行業專家加里·西爾伯格將機器人汽車的推出與智能手機的問世相提并論。他說：“機器人汽車將成為人類生活中不可或缺的東西。它會帶來我們今天無法想象的各種變化。”

[5]根據亞特蘭大、丹佛和芝加哥等地焦點小組的調查，畢馬威預測，“按需移動”的自動駕駛服務（想象一下沒有司機的優步和來福車）將使兩個年齡段的出行人數呈兩位數增加：65歲以上和16—24歲人群。

[6]去年，美國的汽車行駛里程達到了創紀錄的3.1 萬億英里。據畢馬威計算，到2050 年，這兩個年齡段的自動駕駛汽車出行里程每年將會再增加2萬億英里。如果沒有乘客的無人駕駛汽車開始“跑腿”，那么這種增長可能會翻一倍。

[7]中年人駕車出行最多，如果他們也增加出行，那么年汽車出行總里程可達8萬億英里。“這是非常龐大的數字。”西爾伯格說。

[8]無人駕駛汽車將使出行更加安全，同時減少出行成本。由于90%的交通事故都是人為造成，無人駕駛汽車有望大幅減少交通事故，由此降低保險和維修成本。

[9] But the biggest cost of car travel is drivers’ time, said Don MacKenzie,a University of Washington transportation researcher. That cost comes down dramatically when people can use their travel time productively on other tasks.

[10] A study by MacKenzie and other researchers published in the journal Transportation Research: Part A estimates that the vehicles can cut the cost of travel by as much as 80 percent. That in turn drives up miles traveled by 60 percent.

[11] There’s a fork ahead in this driverless road, says a report by Lauren Isaac, manager of sustainable transportation at WSP/Parsons Brinckerhoff,that envisions8either utopia9or a nightmare.

[12] In the best case, congestion is reduced because driverless cars and trucks are safer and can travel faster with reduced space between them. Highway lanes can be narrower because vehicles won’t need as much margin10for error.There will be fewer accidents to tie up traffic. But those advantages will be limited as long as driverless cars share roads with conventional cars, likely for decades.

[9]然而，華盛頓大學的交通研究員鄧·麥克坎茲表示，汽車出行最大的成本考量是司機的時間。當人們可以有效地利用出行時間完成其他任務時，這個成本就會大幅度下降。

[10]麥克坎茲和其他研究員在《交通研究A》雜志上發表了一篇研究報告，該研究估計，這些車輛可以降低多達80%的出行成本。而這會轉而提高60%的出行里數。

[11]柏誠集團的可持續運輸經理勞倫·艾薩克在其報告中指出，無人駕駛這條路面臨著一個分岔口，它所預示的要么是烏托邦，要么就是噩夢。

[12]最好的情況是，無人駕駛的汽車和卡車更安全，在車間距減小的同時行駛速度更快，交通堵塞因此而減少。因為車輛間無須更大間距以防事故發生，所以公路車道可以更窄，而由事故導致的交通阻塞也會減少。但是，只要無人駕駛汽車與傳統汽車共享道路（這種情況大概會持續幾十年），上述優勢都會受限。

[13] But that scenario11scenario 情形，情境。depends on a societal shift from private vehicle ownership to commercial fleets of driverless cars that can be quickly summoned with a phone app. Driverless fleets12fleet 車隊。would have to become super-efficient carpools,picking up and dropping off multiple passengers traveling in the same direction.

[14] The congestion nightmare would result if a large share of people can’t be persuaded to effectively share robot cars with strangers and to continue using mass transit, Isaac said.

[15] A study last year by the International Transport Forum, a transportation policy think tank, simulated13simulate 模仿，模擬。the impact on traffic in Lisbon, Portugal, if conventional cars were replaced with driverless cars that take either a single passenger at a time or several passengers together.

It found that as long as half of travel is still carried out by conventional cars,total vehicle miles traveled will increase from 30 to 90 percent, suggesting that even widespread sharing of driverless cars would mean greater congestion for a long time.

[16] Airlines also may face new competition as people choose to travel by car at speeds well over 100 mph between cities a few hundred miles apart instead of flying. Transit agencies will need to rethink their services in order to stay competitive, especially because the elimination of a driver would make carsharing services cheaper.

[13]但是，這種情況取決于從擁有私人汽車到使用商業無人駕駛車隊的社會轉變。商業無人駕駛車隊可通過手機應用程序快速召喚，這必會成為非常高效的拼車方式，可接送同一方向的多名乘客。

[14]艾薩克表示，如果大部分人不愿與陌生人有效共享機器人汽車，而是繼續使用公共交通工具，那么交通擁堵的噩夢就會變為現實。

[15]去年，交通政策智囊團“國際交通論壇”做了一項研究。他們將傳統汽車換成一次乘坐一名或數名乘客的無人駕駛汽車，模擬研究此舉對葡萄牙里斯本交通狀況的影響。

研究發現，只要傳統汽車出行仍占一半，汽車行駛總里程將增加30%到90%，這表明，即使無人駕駛汽車的共享出行方式廣泛普及，很長一段時期內，擁堵也會更加嚴重。

[16]航空公司也可能面臨新的競爭，因為如果兩個城市相距不過幾百英里，而駕車時速可遠超100英里，那人們就會選擇駕車而不是坐飛機。運輸公司為了保持競爭力，將需要重新考慮他們的服務，特別是在無人駕駛會使汽車共享服務更便宜的情況下。

[17] To make the shared-vehicle model work, government would have to impose congestion pricing on highway,restrict parking in urban centers, add more high-occupancy vehicle lanes14high-occupancy vehicle lane高載率車道，即HOV車道，指為提倡拼車以降低汽車空載率，減少能源消耗，緩解交通壓力而修建的拼車車道。車道上有HOV標志。and take other measures to discourage people from traveling alone in their self-driving cars.

[18] Land-use policies may need to be adjusted to prevent sprawl15sprawl 雜亂無序地拓展。, or people will move beyond the fringes of metropolitan areas for low-cost housing because they can work while commuting at high speeds. Taxes based on the number of miles a personal vehicle travels are another way to discourage car travel.

[19] All these policy changes would be controversial and difficult to achieve.

[20] While there are “loads of likely positive impacts for society associated with driverless technology,” people are right to worry about potential for huge increases in congestion, Isaac said.

“Without any government influence,”she said, “human nature is to get into that single occupancy vehicle.”

[17]為了使共享車輛模式發揮作用，政府將不得不收取公路擁堵費，限制在市中心停車，增加更多高載率車道，并采取其他措施阻礙人們單獨乘坐無人駕駛汽車出行。

[18]土地使用政策可能需要調整，以防城市雜亂無序地拓展，不然人們會為了廉價住房而搬出大都市區，因為高速通勤途中也能工作。基于個人車輛行駛里程征稅是阻礙汽車出行的另一種方式。

[19]所有這些政策的改變都會具有爭議且難以實現。

[20]艾薩克表示，盡管“無人駕駛技術可能給社會帶來很多積極影響”，但人們仍然擔心擁堵可能大大增加，這也在情理之中。

她說：“如果沒有政府干預，人們出于本能會選擇一人乘車。”