Research on Performance Evaluation of China’s Local Industrial Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance Based on Technology Foresight:Taking Guangxi as an Example

Zhong Zhenqing

（Institute of Economic and Social Technology Development,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Nanning,Guangxi,530022)

Abstract:Based on the vision of technology foresight,taking Guangxi as an empirical study,a set of evaluation index system is constructed,the index weight and standard are determined,and the statistical comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the indicators at all levels.The performance of China’s local industrial technology innovation strategic alliance is evaluated and analyzed,and the relevant government departments should improve the industrial technology.The performance of innovation strategic alliance providesthebasisfor decision-making.

Keywords:Technology foresight;Guangxi;industrial technology innovation alliance;performance evaluation

Introduction

Industrial technology innovation strategic alliance refers to enterprises,universities,scientific research institutions or other organizations,based on the development needs of enterprises and the common interests of all parties,aiming at improving the ability of industrial technology innovation,with a legally binding contract guarantee,formation of joint development,complementary advantages,benefit sharing, risk sharing technology innovation cooperation organization. Compared with the traditional industry-university-research platform,the industrial technology innovation strategic alliancehas the characteristics of relatively stable members,strict organizational structure and long-lasting cooperation.It is suitable for solving common technologies,key technologies and basic technological problems faced by industries and industries.In the process of building an industrial technology innovation strategic alliance,based on technology foresee relevant theories and methods,it is important to construct a practical and feasible performance evaluation system and use the foresight,optimization,innovation and adjustment functions predicted by technology to promote the healthy development of industrial technology innovation strategic alliances.It is conducive to enhancing the supporting role of industrial technology innovation strategic alliances in industrial transformation and upgrading.

1.Rise and Development of Technology Foresight

Technology Foresight is a“step-by-step exploration process for the long-term future of science,technology,economy,environment and society,with the aim of selecting strategic research fields and common new technologies that may have the greatest economic and social benefits”.It evolved from the Delphi survey’s core technology forecasting activities,which are two distinct and closely related concepts.

Technology forecasting began in the 1940s.By the end of the 1960s,quantitative forecasting methods had developed quite mature,but in the corporate world,quantitative technology forecasting gradually lost its original attractiveness.In the 1970s and 1980s,technology foresight based on Delphi method became popular.In 1993,technology forecasting was developed into technology foresight.At the end of the 20th century,technology foresight formed a world trend.Not only in developed countries,but also in developing countries,they were actively preparing and carrying out technology foresight activities.

Theacademic community generally believesthat technology foresight first appeared in the United States.After that,technology foresight quickly became a global trend.Whether developed countries such as Japan,Germany and the United Kingdom or developing countries,they were actively preparing and conducting national technology foresight activities based on the Delphi survey.In the late 1990s in China, Taiwan organized regional technology foresight projects and formed research reports.In January 2001,Shanghai launched“Technology Foresight Research on Key Fields in Shanghai Science and Technology”.The general research group under the leadership of the municipal science and technology committee and the municipal science institute and the expert research group on technology foresight formed by the government appointment form have been established.In July 2001,Beijing Municipal Science& Technology Commission and Intercross-Science Research Centre for Natural Science and Social Sciencejointly funded the“Beijing Technology Foresight Action Plan”and it was implemented by Institute of science and technology policy and management science,Chinese Academy of Sciences.In 2003,Chinese Academy of Sciences launched the“China’s 20 Years of Technology Foresight Research”innovation project.Later,each province in China has also started technology foresight research.

Since 2005,in order to strengthen the exchange and cooperation of technology foresight research and further play an important role in technology foresight in science and technology management and decision-making,China Academy of Science and Technology Development Strategy,Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chinese Association for Science of Science and S&T Policy,Institute of Technology foresight Professional Committee and other units jointly sponsor the National Technology Foresight Symposium every year. After that, China’s technology foresight research and development has entered a stage of rapid development.Technology foresight activities have been widely applied and continuously deepened and developed at different levelssuch asgovernment,international organizations and enterprises.

Since 2001,China has conducted five national technology forecastings.Among them,the most influential is the fifth national technology forecasting started in 2013.This technology forecasting was commissioned by the Ministry of Science and Technology and launched by China Academy of Science and Technology Development Strategy.The Delphi method was mainly used to make more than 2,000 key technologies into questionnaire forms.The number of researchers filling out the questionnaire totaled more than 30 thousand and a total of 116 thousand questionnaires were collected.Subsequently,they took science and advancement as the main indicators of observation,selected 280 technologies from 14 fields and then selected key technologies that have great value for national development.The survey found that 16% of 1,346 technologies studied in China are at the international leading level,30%are in the international phase and 54% are in the follow-up phase.Based on this investigation and research,the important conclusion of China’s science and technology innovation is obtained at this stage,that is,China’s scientific and technological innovation has entered the run-up,running and leading stages and the running and leading stages are increasing.

2 Implementation of Technology Foresight in Guangxi

Guangxi, as an underdeveloped and post-development area,due to historical,economic,cultural and resource constraints,the level of scientific and technological development is also relatively backward in China.“China Regional Science and Technology Innovation Evaluation Report 2016-2017”issued by the China Academy Science and Technology Development Strategy divides 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government)into four categories according to the comprehensive scientific and technological progress level index.Guangxi is located in the third category with a comprehensive scientific and technological innovation level below 50%,but it is above 40%of thethird category(see Table1).

Table1 Levelsof Comprehensive Scientific and Technological Innovation in Various Provinces(Autonomous Regionsand Municipalities Directly under Central Government)

In general,as a small province of science and technology,Guangxi’s research on technology foresight is still in its infancy and there are not many research and activities carried out in terms of technology foresight.There is a big gap with the eastern coastal areas.In recent years,Guangxi has two main activities that have a major impact on technology foresight.

First,in 2006,Guangxi Science and Technology Department launched the “Future Industry Technology Development Forecasting and Countermeasures Research in the Future”project and carried out technology foresight research on four industries of non-ferrous metals, automobile machinery,Chinese medicine and agricultural product processing in Guangxi,clarifying the existing technological level,constraints and technology needs of these four industries.Based on the field research,Guangxi Science and Technology Department put forward some countermeasures to accelerate the development of industrial science and technology in Guangxi.

Figure1 Main Contentsof“Guangxi Industrial Technology Development Forecasting and Countermeasuresin the Future Years”

Second,in 2016,the“Thirteenth Five-Year”Guangxi key area technology foresight survey was launched and the energy and materials of the three major sectors of the national development strategy-driven,regional transformation development needs and independent innovation capacity building were targeted at the“13th Five-Year Plan”demand of Guangxi Science and Technology. The questionnaire was designed in seven areas including information,population and health equipment manufacturing,agriculture and food,resources and environment,putting forward key points and contents of Guangxi’s industrial science and technology development during the“13th Five-Year Plan”.

3 Development Status of China’s Local Industry Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance

The concept of the first industrial technology innovation strategic alliance in China’s official documents was published on January 24,2006.The Ministry of Science and Technology,the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council and the All-China Federation of Trade Unions jointly issued a notice on the implementation of“Technology Innovation Guidance Project” (No.31 [2006]of Ministry of Science&Technology, Ministry of Finance, State Administration of Taxation).In the Implementation Plan,“improving and supporting a number of key fields to form a strategic alliance of industry,academia and research”as an important part of implementing the“Technology Innovation Guiding Project”clearly stated that it should“guide a number of key fields,with common technologies and important standards as the link.Large and medium-sized backbone enterprises and leading enterprises in the industry are at the core,forming various forms of industry-university-research strategic alliances and giving priority support”.Later,with the outbreak of international financial crisis and the continued impact,the state took science and technology as an important starting point for promoting stable and rapid economic development.The Ministry of Science and Technology and other relevant departments further accelerated the deployment of strategic alliances for industrial technology innovation and introduced a series of policy documents (see Table 2)sucn as“Guiding Opinions on the Construction of Innovative Strategic Alliances”(No.770[2008]of Ministry of Science&Technology, Ministry of Finance, State Administration of Taxation)and selected four batches of 150 industrial technology innovation strategic alliances to carry out pilot work.After more than 10 years of construction and development,the industrial technology innovation strategic alliance has made significant progress in breaking through the core technologies of industrial development,promoting the sharing of innovative resources,accelerating the commercial use of scientific and technological achievements and strengthening personnel exchanges and interactions.The in-depth cooperation between industry,academia and research strengthened the collaborative innovation of various innovation entities and supported the industry to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the important hands and carriers.

Table 2 Relevant Policy Documentsof Industrial Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance Introduced by Chinain Recent Years

Under the unified arrangement of the state,all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government)have formulated a series of policy documents based on the actual conditions of the region to comprehensively accelerate the development of strategic alliances for industrial technology innovation.Taking Guangxi as an example,in recent years,“Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Technology Innovation Project Implementation Plan”, “Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Industrial Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance Management Measures(Trial)”,“Implementation Plan for Strengthening Industrial Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance Construction”and other policy documents have been issued.In the regional characteristic advantage industry,relying on technological research and development advantages of enterprises and institutions,a number of industrial technology innovation strategic alliances have been established.As of December 2017,a national strategic alliance for industrial technology innovation has been established-a strategic alliance for technological innovation of deep processing industry with national characteristics and a strategic alliance for industrial technology innovation at 28 autonomous regions(pilot). In general, China’s local industrial technology innovation strategic alliance still has internal mechanism construction imperfection(such aslack of effectivecoordination mechanismand clear interest distribution mechanism)and external support for innovation alliance insufficency(such as lack of stable financial support).Such obvious problems need to be solved urgently.Especially after the Ministry of Science and Technology formulated“Evaluation Index System for Industrial Technology Innovation Strategic Alliances”,some provinces did not timely subdivide the evaluation system and the evaluation of provincial industrial technology innovation strategic alliance was relatively lagging behind.

4 Establishment of the Operational Performance Evaluation Index System for Local Industrial Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance

4.1 Settingof the Evaluation Indicator

To evaluate the strategic alliance of industrial technology innovation,a scientific and reasonable indicator system is needed to measure the progress and performance of each alliance through a series of scientific,complete and systematic indicators.This study refers to the Ministry of Science and Technology’s“Industrial Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance Evaluation Index System”and combines with the strategic positioning,construction goals and duties of the alliance.Five first-level indicators,14 second-level indicators and 31 third-level indicators such as innovation activities,innovation performance,service industry,operation management and benefit sharing were identified(see Table 3).

Table3 Industrial Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance Evaluation Index System

4.2 Determination of Indicator Weight and Criteria

Determining the weight of indicators is critical to the comprehensive assessment of the indicator system and directly affects the result of the assessment.Whether the determination of weight is scientifical isdirectly related to the reasonablenessof the evaluation result.For the monitoring and evaluation of the science and technology planning system,there are some specific requirements for the determination of the weight of the evaluation indicator.First,the method of determining the weight should reflect the purpose of the evaluation by the decision-making body and meet the needs of the science and technology management department for program management. Second, the weight determination method is as simple,practical,easy to understand and operate as possible and evaluation results are easily accepted by the science and technology management department and monitoring objects.Third,the method of determining the weight must be mature and feasible and the scope of application should be clearly defined.It can withstand scrutiny and questioning and evaluation results objectively reflect the differences between monitored objects.

Based on the combination of Delphi method,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and AHP method,this study is confirmed according to the status and influence degree of each indicator in alliance management and evaluation(see Table4).

Table 4 Weight and Standard of Evaluation Indicator System of Industrial Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance

Primary indicator(%)indicators（%） Exchanging Thenumberofjointtrainingtalents(k21) Number 2 2points:k21≥100;1point:100＜k21＞0 Training graduates and other senior talents for the industry Weights Secondary WeightsThree-levelindicator Unit Score Criteria andtraining talents 6(k22) Number 2 2points:k22≥10;1point:10＜k22＞0 The number of talentsexchanged among membersof the alliance(k23) Number 2 2points:k23≥10;1point:10＜k23＞0 Diffusing innovation results 8 Technologialtransactionturnover(k24) 10 thousand 4 4points:k24≥100;2points:100＜k24≥50;1point:0＜k24＜50 Organizationofexternaltechnologytransfer(k25) Number 2 2points:k25≥10;1point:10＜k25＞0 Organizingnewproduct/newproductapplicationdemonstration(k26) Number 2 2points:k26≥5;1point:5＜k26＞0 Operation management 8 Establishing aninstitution 3 Establishmentofdecision-makingbodiesandimplementingagencies(k27) 3 3points:Establishedmentofdecision-makingbodies andimplementingagencies;1point:therearesome institutesbuttheyarenotperfect Operating management system 5 Establishmentof managementsystemssuch asprojects,funds,personnel,andcommunication(k28) 2 2points:Themanagementsystemisbasicallyperfect;1 point:thereisaninstitutionbutitisnotperfect Thenumber of meetingsof theboardof directors,expertcommitteesandworkingmeetings(k29) time 3 3points:k29≥3;2points:k29=2;1point:k29=1 Benefit sharing 8 Sharing intellectual property 8 Thenumberofjointapplications(k30) Number 5 5points:k30≥5;3points:5＜k30≥2;1point:0＜k30＜2 Jointownershipof newplantvarieties,softwarecopyrights,and exclusiverightstointegratedcircuitlayoutdesigns(k31) Number 3 3points:k31≥5;2points:5＜k31≥2;1point:0＜k31＜2

4.3 Calculation Method

This project uses the statistical comprehensive evaluation method to score indicators at all levels.According to the statistical report data of the Industrial Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance,the score of each indicator is determined according to the criteria of three-level indicators.The summary of all indicators is thetotal scoreof thestrategic allianceof theevaluated industrial technology innovation(see Table5).

Table5 Evaluation Scoresof Local Industrial Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance

Primary indicator Secondary indicators Three-levelindicator Unit Score Criteria Evaluated leaguescore Savingresearchanddevelopmentcosts(k13) 10 thousand 3 Shorteningthedevelopmentcycle(k14) day 3 Newproductoutputvalue(k15) 10 thousand 5 Theproportionofnewproductoutputvaluetototaloutputvalue(k16) % 5 Participatinginordevelopindustrialplanning(k17) Number 3 Organizingthedevelopmentofindustrialtechnologyroadmap(k18) Number 2 Providingexhibitionservice(k19) time 3 Holdinganacademicconferenceorforum(k20) time 3 Thenumberofjointtrainingtalents(k21) Number 2 Traininggraduatesandotherseniortalentsfortheindustry(k22) Number 2 Thenumberoftalentsexchangedamongmembersofthealliance(k23) Number 2 Technologialtransactionturnover(k24) 10 thousand 4 Organizationofexternaltechnologytransfer(k25) Number 2 Organizingnewproduct/newproductapplicationdemonstration(k26) Number 2 3points：k13≥100；2points：100＜k13≥50；1point：0＜k13＜50 3points：k14≥50；2points：50＜k14≥20；1point：0＜k14＜20 5points：k15≥150；3points：150＜k15≥50；1point：k15＜50 5points：k16≥70；3points：70＜k16≥50；1point：k16＜50 3points：k17≥1 2points:k18≥1 3points:k19≥5;2points:5＜k19≥2;1point:0＜k19＜2 3points:k20≥5;2points:5＜k20≥2;1point:0＜k20＜2 3points:k20≥5;2points:5＜k20≥2;1point:0＜k20＜2 2points:k22≥10;1point:10＜k22＞0 2points:k23≥10;1point:10＜k23＞0 4points:k24≥100;2points:100＜k24≥50;1point:0＜k24＜50 2points:k25≥10;1point:10＜k25＞0 2points:k26≥5;1point:5＜k26＞0 Improving innovation efficiency Improving economic efficiency Developing industrial planning Providing industry services Exchanging andtraining talents Diffusing innovation results Service industry Establishment of decision-making bodies and implementing agencies(k27) 3 3points:Establishmentofdecision-making bodiesandimplementingagencies;1point:there areinstitutionsbuttheyarenotperfect Establishing aninstitution Operation management Operating management system Establishmentof management systemssuch asprojects,funds,personnel,andcommunication(k28) 2 2points:Themanagementsystemisbasically perfect;1point:thereisasystembutitisnotperfect Thenumber of meetingsof theboard of directors,expertcommitteesand workingmeetings(k29) Number 3 3points:k29≥3;2points:k29=2;1point:k29=1 Benefit sharing Sharing intellectual property Thenumberofjointapplications(k30) Number 5 5points:k30≥5;3points:5＜k30≥2;1point:0＜k30＜2 Jointownership of newplant varieties,softwarecopyrights,and exclusive rightstointegratedcircuitlayoutdesigns(k31) Number 3 3points:k31≥5;2points:5＜k31≥2;1point:0＜k31＜2 Totalscore

4.4 Evaluation Process,Resultsand Cycle

4.4.1 Evaluation Process

The main processincludes following links:

(i)Alliance self-assessment.The Alliance reports“Self-Assessment Report of the Strategic Alliance for Industrial Technology Innovation”and“Questionnaire of the Member Unit of the Industrial Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance” and provides all necessary supporting materials.

(ii)Information investigation and verification.It is necessary to investigate the opinions of the competent authorities in the field of investigation,organize the public opinion survey and field research and investigation,collect the information needed for the evaluation and check and verify.

(iii)Qualification review.Through information investigation and verification,alliances that do not meet the basic conditions must be excluded such as unrealistic operation,illegal violations and provision of false information.

(iv)Comprehensive evaluation by experts.The science and technology management department organize expert groups to comprehensively evaluate the alliance and form expert evaluation opinions according to the evaluation indicator system and comprehensively relevant information.

(v)Soliciting opinions from the competent authoritiesin thefield

(vi)Validating the result of the release.The science and technology management department validatethereleaseof theevaluation results.

4.4.2 Evaluation Results

Referring to the evaluation mechanism of the national strategic alliance for industrial technology innovation,the evaluation results are divided into three grades-“A,B,C”.The alliance with good performance and outstanding achievements is evaluated as A.For the general performance of the operation,the alliance with insignificant performance is evaluated as B.For the alliance with poor performance and many problems,it is evaluated as C.According to the evaluation results,the pilot alliance will bedynamically adjusted and selected.

For the alliance with the evaluation result of“A”,it isvital totimely sumup experience,publicize and promote and increase project and policy support.For the alliance with the evaluation result of“B”,the rectification will be upgraded within one year and new support will be suspended during the rectification period.For the alliance with the evaluation result of“C”,the pilot qualification is cancelled and no new support is arranged.Alliances that have completed the intended goals can be disbanded or adjusted based on the alliance application or management department’s comments.

4.4.3 Evaluation Cycle

It is necessary to implement a regular assessment and appraisal system for the alliance.Pilot alliances are generally evaluated after two years and the assessed alliances are reviewed every 3 years.