中國(guó)過(guò)度教育的測(cè)度

李建民+陳潔

摘 要： 大學(xué)生就業(yè)難引起了中國(guó)關(guān)于過(guò)度教育的爭(zhēng)論，然而過(guò)度教育研究的基石——過(guò)度教育的測(cè)度一直有其局限性，本文提出了一種標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化方法，用美國(guó)各職業(yè)的教育準(zhǔn)入標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來(lái)測(cè)度中國(guó)的過(guò)度教育，發(fā)現(xiàn)目前我國(guó)呈現(xiàn)出“高端過(guò)度、低端不足”的格局，過(guò)度教育者主要分布在辦事人員和商業(yè)服務(wù)業(yè)，教育不足者主要是單位負(fù)責(zé)人和生產(chǎn)運(yùn)輸業(yè)從業(yè)者。基于這種測(cè)度方法使用第三期中國(guó)婦女社會(huì)地位調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)分析了性別、年齡、婚姻等因素對(duì)過(guò)度教育發(fā)生率的影響，運(yùn)用工具變量解決了忽略個(gè)人異質(zhì)性帶來(lái)的內(nèi)生性問(wèn)題。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)女性相較于男性更容易出現(xiàn)教育過(guò)度；年輕者較年長(zhǎng)者更易于出現(xiàn)教育過(guò)度；已婚者比未婚者更易于出現(xiàn)教育過(guò)度；教育程度越高，越容易出現(xiàn)教育過(guò)度。我國(guó)目前存在高學(xué)歷者的過(guò)度供給，但這不能通過(guò)否定和抑制高等教育的發(fā)展來(lái)解決，而是要以人力資本儲(chǔ)備為支撐，促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)和職業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的合理轉(zhuǎn)變。

關(guān)鍵詞： 標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化測(cè)度方法；教育過(guò)度；教育不足

中圖分類號(hào)： G40-051；F062.3 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A 文章編號(hào)：1000-4149（2017）05-0034-11 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2017.05.004

Estimation Over Education in China：

Based on the Standards of Vocation Entry-level Education in the US

LI Jianmin， CHEN Jie

（Institute of Population and Development Research， Nankai University， Tianjin 300071，China）

Abstract： The difficulty of getting a job for graduates arouses controversy over whether there is over education in China， but the cornerstone of over education research-the measurement of over education has its limitation， so this paper puts forward entry-level education of the occupation in the United States to measure China s over education. It has been found that under education of primary level and over education of high level largely exist at the same time. Over education mainly exists in the staff and business services and under education is mainly engaged in executives and the production and transportation occupation. Then using the data of the Third Wave Survey on the Social Status of Women in China analyzes the influence of gender， age， marital status and other factors on the incidence of over education based on this measurement method. The instrument variable is used to solve the endogenous problems caused by ignoring individual heterogeneity. This study reveals that compared with women， men are more likely to occur over education； younger people are more prone to over education； married people are more prone to over education； the people with higher education level are more prone to over education. There is over supply of highly educated persons in China， we should reserve human capital to support and promote the industry upgrading and rational transformation of occupational structure rather than denying and suppressing the development of higher education to solve this problem.

Keywords： standard measurement； over education； under education

一、引言

近年來(lái)我國(guó)高校畢業(yè)生就業(yè)難、企業(yè)招工難現(xiàn)象同時(shí)存在且日益突出。2015年我國(guó)新生勞動(dòng)力達(dá)到1500萬(wàn)人，全年能夠提供的就業(yè)崗位僅1200多萬(wàn)個(gè)，存在供求缺口；然而近10年我國(guó)人力資源市場(chǎng)總體求人倍率卻是從0.88∶ 1上升到1.04∶ 1， 顯示出市場(chǎng)崗位需求大于求職人數(shù)一方面是勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)上的強(qiáng)勁需求，一方面是大量高學(xué)歷人才找不到工作，教育發(fā)展與市場(chǎng)需求是否匹配成為一個(gè)值得思考的問(wèn)題，中國(guó)真的教育過(guò)度了嗎？社會(huì)上存在著中國(guó)教育過(guò)度是真命題還是偽命題的廣泛爭(zhēng)論，要清晰回答這一問(wèn)題，合理測(cè)度我國(guó)的過(guò)度教育至關(guān)重要。endprint