基于SEM的三峽工程農(nóng)村移民后期扶持參與行為意向研究

汪洋 張爽

摘要：因工程項目開發(fā)建設(shè)導(dǎo)致的農(nóng)村移民后期安置補償問題是影響社會穩(wěn)定的重要風險因素。以重慶市涪陵區(qū)三峽工程移民為研究對象進行問卷調(diào)查，從農(nóng)村移民的需求層次、個人認知和村莊特征3個方面選取變量，利用結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型對后期扶持農(nóng)村移民公眾參與的行為邏輯進行路徑分析。結(jié)果表明，農(nóng)村移民在建設(shè)項目完成后生活貧困現(xiàn)象較為嚴重，表現(xiàn)為高貧困率、低就業(yè)率和低收入等特征;后期扶持工程略顯疲軟的根本原因在于難以把握農(nóng)村移民的關(guān)鍵需求，農(nóng)村移民對后期扶持的參與程度較低;農(nóng)村移民基于后期扶持的參與行為受其行為意向影響顯著，而行為意向受工程移民需求層次、個人認知和村莊特征的綜合影響;迎合農(nóng)村移民的需求、構(gòu)建有效參與平臺和政策保障是促進工程移民有效參與的重要舉措。

關(guān)鍵詞：移民;后期扶持;行為意向;結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型（SEM）

中圖分類號：D632.4? ? ? ? ?文獻標識碼：A

文章編號：0439-8114（2019）08-0141-04

DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2019.08.033? ? ? ? ? ?開放科學（資源服務(wù)）標識碼（OSID）：

Abstract： The resettlement compensation problem of rural migrants caused by the development and construction of engineering projects has become an important risk factor affecting social stability. A questionnaire survey was conducted taking the immigration of the Three Gorges Project in Fuling district of Chongqing as the research object. Selecting variables from the three aspects of rural immigrants' demand level， individual cognition and village characteristics， the structural equation model was used to analyze the behavior logic of the rural public participation during the post-migration support program. The results show that the rural migrants have more serious living poverty after the completion of the construction project， which is characterized by high poverty rate， low employment rate and low income. The fundamental reason for the slight weakness of the post-migration support program is that it is difficult to grasp the key needs of rural migrants， and the participation of rural migrants is relatively low. The participation behavior of rural immigrants in the post-migration support program is significantly affected by their behavioral intentions， which is affected by the comprehensive level of project immigration needs， personal cognition and village characteristics. Catering to the needs of rural immigrants， building an effective participation platform and policy guarantees are important measures to promote the effective participation of engineering immigrants.

Key words： rural immigrant; post-migration support program; behavioral intention; structural equation modeling （SEM）

隨著經(jīng)濟增長極的偏移，發(fā)展中國家將面臨著重大工程項目建設(shè)的蓬勃興起，重大工程項目的開發(fā)建設(shè)成為區(qū)域社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要切入點[1-3]。據(jù)統(tǒng)計，1984—2003年，全世界大約有2.5億～3.0億人因水利、交通等重大工程項目的開發(fā)建設(shè)需要而成為非自愿性農(nóng)村移民[4]。這些農(nóng)村移民的安置補償大多采取現(xiàn)金、住房、土地補償?shù)纫淮涡苑绞剑狈ρa償機制的延續(xù)性和時代性，因此后工程時期大多數(shù)農(nóng)村移民均面臨著安置后基本利益難以保障、基本生活難以維持的困境[5]。后期扶持是重大工程項目開發(fā)建設(shè)中以政府為主導(dǎo)，旨在解決農(nóng)村移民安置后基本生產(chǎn)生活經(jīng)濟問題的重要補償手段[6]。然而由于缺乏農(nóng)村移民的有效參與，后期扶持往往達不到既定目標效果，扶持方向和力度滯后于社會經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展速度和農(nóng)村移民的需求程度[7]。