公交主導型多方式交通網絡的協同機理與耦合理論2013年度報告

王煒

摘要：本研究緊密結合我國城市交通結構發展現狀和公交優先國家目標需求，立足于公交主導型交通網絡條件下居民出行特征與多方式網絡承載力特性的深入研究，揭示地面公交網絡-軌道網絡-道路網絡的相互作用機理，建立交通網絡多方式系統耦合理論，并將理論研究成果應用于多方式交通網絡效能評估。項目研究總體上從公交主導型多方式交通網絡出行需求與供給特性分析、公交主導型多層次交通網絡相互作用與系統耦合、多方式交通網絡效能評估這三個緊密相關、依次遞進方面上開展理論與應用研究。首先，基于對公交主導型交通網絡條件下居民出行行為特征與出行需求的合理認知、把握與診斷，本年度開展大量調查，獲取并分析公交主導型交通網絡條件下居民出行特征基礎數據，實現公交主導型多方式交通網絡下基礎數據的采集及數據庫的建立，構建公交出行行為辨識模型、基于滿意度的公交服務貝葉斯網絡模型以及以大運量公交為主的多方式聯合出行整體效用模型，解析公交主導型多方式網絡中的多重復雜出行需求；其次，從多方式交通網絡的地面公交運行特性與通行能力出發，研究多層次交通網絡對客流影響，探討地面公交與軌道運輸能力一體化的銜接方法，構建宏觀客流在多層次交通網絡上的轉移模型；再次，在宏觀層面上對居民出行分布與公交主導型網絡結構的耦合關系進行了分析，形成基于結構耦合模型的公交網絡等級配置、公交網絡布局以及軌道交通與地面交通網絡換乘設施的優化方法，深入分析公交主導型多層次交通網絡系統耦合作用機制；最后，在明確了軌道網絡與地面交通網絡的耦合內涵基礎上，綜合宏觀網絡層面與微觀通行層面，建立了包含出行效率、公交承載力、排放與能耗、建設費用在內的差異化指標評價體系，并采用實地調查獲取的道路及交通流參數建立多方式交通網絡效能分析實證平臺，提出了基于公交及社會車輛通行效率評價的優先策略反饋機制和基于MATLAB的污染物濃度分布可視化展現。為成果在交通結構優化和節能減排方面的推廣應用提供扎實的基礎和可靠的依據。

關鍵詞：公交主導；多方式交通網絡；耦合理論

Interaction Mechanism and Coupling Theory of Transit-oriented Multimodal Urban Traffic Systems

Abstract：Based on the capacity and activity-travel behavior study of transit-oriented traffic network， this project has revealed the interactions among bus network， metro network and road network， and has established the coupling theory among those multimodal networks. In general， those studies can be divided into three levels： transit-oriented multimodal demand and supply， multi-typed interactions between different networks and efficiency evaluation of those networks. Firstly， investigations were conducted based on understandings of activity-travel behavior under transit-oriented traffic network and related database was established. Models like identification model for bus travel behavior， Bayesian network model for bus service level and multimodal utility model were built based on those data to provide comprehensive understanding of multiple and complex travel demand； then， impacts of multimodal networks on traffic flow were studies based on the understanding of operating characteristics and capacity of urban ground transit network. A methodology towards more integrated ground and underground transit and traffic flow transfer models between those networks were established. Furthermore， a deep study on coupling theories between trip distribution and transit-oriented networks as well as coupling theory among different transit network， help to form the utilized mechanisms for level configuration， network layout and ground transportation network transfer facility towards multimodal transit network. Base on that， finally， a differentiated evaluation index system for both macro and micro-level of transit-oriented networks was established， including varies of factors like travel efficiency， public transportation capacity， emissions and energy consumption and construction costs， et al. and a multimodal transportation network performance analysis empirical platform was established， providing bus priority strategy based on vehicle traffic and social efficiency evaluation and feedback mechanism based on the visualized distribution of pollutant concentration based on MATLAB. Those findings can be used as basis to utilize transportation structures as well as saving energy.

Keywords：Transit-oriented；multimodal transportation network；coupling theory

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