On Asymmetrical Economic Interdependence

Abstract：Nowadays， the way of gaining power is greatly different from that in the past when most countries resorted to military forces to conquest territories beyond their borders. Countries are becoming more economically interdependent under the background of globalization in the purpose of increasing economic benefits， which is comparatively a cheaper way to boost their international power. Meanwhile the economically interdependent relation would also cause conflicts as it is almost impossible to achieve a balanced and symmetrical interdependence. Besides， for most of the time， one country with more dependence in the mutual economic relation is subject to the other country when there are conflicts of interest in between， which reflects the potential power relation in between.

Key words： asymmetrical， economic interdependence， conflict， power

According to Cooper （1972）， economic interdependence normally refers to the dollar value of economic transactions among regions or countries. In pursuit of mutual interest and win-win strategy， countries connected with each other in the international market through a series of economic activities. Whereas， that two countries have mutual trades does not necessarily constitutes a remarkable relation of economic independence if their trades are not influenced by the price and income in the two countries. Basically， there are two distinct characteristics of economic interdependence： one is sensitivity in terms of the degree of mutual effects， and the other is vulnerability in terms of the opportunity costs of disrupting the relationship. （Waltz， 1970） They do not necessarily covary to the same degree or even in the same direction. （Baldwin， 1980） For instance， facing East Asian financial crisis in 1998， the U.S. is sensitive but not vulnerable： the economic growth rate of the U.S. decrease 0.5 percent within its affordability， which did not affect its whole economy much； while the subprime crisis cost the U.S. severely due to the subprime bubble and mounting deficits. Besides， in reality it is hard to find a symmetrical interdependence and a balanced power within two countries. In terms of the source of power， a country with less sensitivity and vulnerability has a weaker economic dependence and more power in their relations， and vulnerability produces more power in the relationship than sensitivity. （Nye， 2011）

Relevant literature has some arguments on the effect of economic interdependence. Some assume that it is good to boost prosperity and promote peace while others perceive it as a source of conflict. The view that increased interdependence facilitates cooperative political relation got recognition in the academia and political relations， which also helps to justify the formation of European Economic Community， Nixons opening to China， Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation， BRICS and other economic cooperative relations or organizations. （Ikenberry， 2004） Also， the increased economic interdependence and social interaction raise the likelihood of innovative outputs. （Andersen， 1996） Moreover， Gartzke （2001） found that economic linkage， particularly the capital interdependence， made contribution to peace through empirical researches with quantitative analysis. In addition， the Bargaining Theory tells that asymmetrical economic interdependence itself does not imply that the stronger one could exert political power over the weaker one. （Wagner， 1988） Nevertheless， the critics hold that despite the effect of cooperation， the heightened interdependence amplifies political discord and even intimidate national security. Barbieri （1996） found that the degrees of interdependence matters. Low to moderate degrees of interdependence is likely to decrease dyadic conflict， while extensive economic ties increase the likelihood of dyadic disputes. And extreme interdependence， no matter it is symmetrical or asymmetrical， has the greatest potential to enhance the probability of disputes. And take Taiwans cross-strait policy for instance， most of the Taiwanese believe that too much economic interdependence would harm its own autonomy so that they resort to New Southbound Policy.

China-US economic relation is an example for the asymmetrical interdependence. Since 1979， China and the United States have established diplomatic relations， constituting their economic interdependence. In recent years the United States has large amounts of import from China and China holds dollar and bonds priced in USD， from which both get much economic benefits and enhance their international status and power. However， China has been at a more sensitive and vulnerable position in the interdependence for a long time， which leads to an asymmetrical economic interdependence. According to Joseph S. Nye （2011）， this asymmetrical economic relation serves as a fundamental and potential source of power because an asymmetrical interdependence will provide the dominant country with more bargaining power while making bilateral economic policies and agreements.

作者簡介：戴妮 1994年11月，女，漢，浙江省寧波市人，研究生，研究方向：全球政治經濟。