China and ASEAN From A Western Perspective

As China and ASEAN have both developed rapidly over the past decade， scholars around the world have paid increasing attention to issues concerning the region. Brantly Womack， the current C.K. Yen Professor of Foreign Affairs at the University of Virginia in the United States， is one such scholar.

China Report ASEAN sat down with Womack for an exclusive interview to discuss the development of China-ASEAN relations against the backdrop of fast changing global economic and political conditions.

>> China Report ASEAN： Let’s kick off with the Belt and Road Initiative. In May， the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation was held in Beijing， sparking global attention. As a professor from the United States， how do you think about the Belt and Road Initiative？

Brantly Womack： First of all， I think the Belt and Road’s principles are very open， not just with the Belt and Road but also the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank （AIIB）， which is a very good move for China.

The contrast to the United States right now is very big. I think China’s political prestige will go up. In terms of projects， some projects will succeed， some will fail and most will be in the middle.

If Asia can be re-centered， with new communication channels， and not isolated， then it will be a very good thing for both China and Asia.

Some have said that the Belt and Road could mean a return to the old tributary system， but I don’t agree with this argument. It will not be a return to the old situation， in which the emperor lived in the Forbidden City， and everyone brought gifts.

In the present day， though， there are two big differences. Firstly， China is dealing with sovereign powers. Secondly， in the tributary system， there were no attempts to develop trade. To a certain extent， trade was discouraged officially， and it grew on the outside of the system. Now， trade is encouraged， and people-to-people contact is encouraged.

>> China Report ASEAN： Since Donald Trump won the American Presidency， many American policies， including the Trans-Pacific Partnership （TPP）， have been changed or canceled. However， many countries including Vietnam push forward in their support of TPP. How do you evaluate this support？

Brantly Womack： Trump is unpredictable in many ways. His policies are unpredictable. His foreign policy team is unpredictable. His continuity with the Obama administration is unpredictable. His reaction to surprises is unpredictable.

I was in Vietnam in December， and they were very upset that Trump had been elected， because they expected to be major beneficiaries of TPP. I do not think the TPP， without the United States， is that useful for Vietnam. That is because the United States is a primary market for Vietnam in terms of export. It balances its Chinese imports with American exports. If Vietnam had a special TPP relationship with the United States， it would attract businesses to move from China to Vietnam to be within the TPP network. Without the United States in TPP， I don’t see a specific advantage for Vietnam.

>> China Report ASEAN： In your books， including China and Vietnam： The Politics of Asymmetry and China Among Unequals： Asymmetric Foreign Relations in Asia， you explain an asymmetry that exists in China-Vietnam relations. Do you feel this type of asymmetry is still prevalent now？

Brantly Womack： Vietnam has not become larger than China. Asymmetry still holds. There has been asymmetry between the two countries for thousands of years.

I was very happy to see the news on Draft Code of Conduct on the South China Sea. If a Code of Conduct could be arranged， and if other progress could be made on South China Sea issues， it would be easier， especially for Vietnam， but also for other ASEAN countries to significantly improve their relationships with China.

>> China Report ASEAN： Asymmetry is indeed quite important when it comes to understanding the relationship between China and Vietnam. China influences Vietnam in many ways， and Vietnam’s influence on China is seldom perceived. What are Vietnam’s influences on China， especially under the framework of ASEAN？

Brantly Womack： I think ASEAN’s influence on China has been very positive， and if you think of China-ASEAN relations and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization， those are two really positive， neighborly relationships. Since Vietnam became a member of ASEAN in 1995， being a member of ASEAN has become a much more important part of Vietnam’s identity. Before then， its relations to the rest of Southeast Asia were negative and distant. They didn’t identify with being Southeast Asian. Now they do.

As for Vietnam’s influence on China， it’s hard to perceive in China. That is because the smaller country’s influence is always more difficult to perceive.

>> China Report ASEAN： In a previous article with the headline ‘Fifty Years of the ASEAN-China Relationship’， you wrote that ‘ASEAN and China thus far have worked well together’. What’s your basis for such an opinion？

Brantly Womack： First of all， the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence determine that China is always willing to develop with other countries including ASEAN countries in a friendly win-win way. For example， China’s support for the Hong Kong dollar and for the Chinese yuan during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 won the gratitude and respect of Southeast Asia. In 2002， China became the first country outside the region to accede to ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity， essentially a mutual non-aggression treaty， which was made somewhat more specific by a joint declaration on conduct in the South China Sea. The ASEAN-China Free Trade Area was also launched.

Secondly， policies like the Belt and Road Initiative that aim to push forward growth of the world economy and enhance the infrastructure facilities of countries like Cambodia will also cooperate China to work with ASEAN well.

>> China Report ASEAN： How do you think the South China Sea issue will influence relations between China and ASEAN？

Brantly Womack： Well certainly， the South China Sea has been the focus of problems between China and Southeast Asia for the last 20 years.

But， there hasn’t been any military conflict in the South China Sea. There have been conflicts in terms of sovereignty claims， but no military conflict. Freedom of transportation in the South China Sea is guaranteed.

I think that the South China Sea problem received a lot of attention after 2008， especially 2010. Because China was growing， Southeast Asia was economically unsteady and world markets were unsteady. The fact that China was growing made ASEAN worried. What would China’s continued growth be？ That anxiety is focused on the South China Sea.

So， I think the South China Sea provided a kind of symbol of ASEAN anxiety about what their new relationship with this much stronger China would be like.

Now， under China’s “new normal” growth， the Philippines and Vietnam had higher growth rates than China last year. China’s “new normal” growth is not much different compared to the high growth pattern across Southeast Asia.

The South China Sea issue may therefore become less important.