Is the 21st Century Still the‘American Century’?

The Chinese version of Harvard professor Joseph S. Nyes 2015 book Is the American Century Over？ was released here in China earlier this year. In a book review written for Beijing Review， Yang Chengxu， former President of the China Institute of International Studies， says that he hopes this book， which reflects the authors largely optimistic attitude toward the prospects for China-U.S. relations， will be able to deliver positive energy between China and the United States， and even across the whole world. Excerpts are as follows：

After pursuing its reform and openingup policy for more than three decades， China has surpassed Japan as the second largest economy in the world. Predictions have even emerged that China will surpass the United States to global pre-eminence. Some U.S. personnel in political， economic， academic and media circles view China increasingly as an enemy of the United States.

Some insist that emerging powers will inevitably challenge existing powers， arguing that the Thucydides trap cannot be avoided and fighting between China and the United States is unavoidable. In this context， Nyes book will help increase mutual understanding and trust between the two countries and exert a positive influence on the building of a new model of major country relations.

U.S. hegemony is not envied

A brief analysis of the current situation and development trends of Europe， Japan， Russia， Brazil and India unfolds in this book， emphasizing that the development of these countries national strength will not lead to the end of the “American century.” Nye spends an entire chapter analyzing Chinas growth. This is highly relevant because one of the most-talked-about topics in the United States nowadays is that a rising“Chinese century” is to replace the “American century.”

While contrasting U.S. national strength to Chinas， the author particularly stresses that he is not bragging about American strength and that he is offering an academic analysis. Actually， as he points out， the contrast of countries national strengths are not limited to GDP， but also covers a range of factors like resources， military capacity， soft power and scientific innovation. China still has a long way to go before it catches up with the United States.

If calculated by GDP per capita， the gap is even bigger. Any strong， developed and wealthy nation in the world must be endowed with high levels of human capital， education， science and technology and national cohesion as well as a stable political system and geo-strategic advantages.

Rapid development has pushed China to the front of the world GDP rankings. However， its unreasonable to judge whether China is the first or second world power solely based on GDP. In particular， China has a large population and huge wealth disparities. It is now still exploring a road of sustainable economic development. Therefore， the difficulties facing China can never be underestimated.

Replacing Britain in the 20th century， the United States secured its dominance among industrialized countries. After the end of World War II， the conditions for the United States to develop into a superpower were supremely favorable. From the geopolitical perspective， the United States had established close connections with Europe and Asia. With only two neighbors，it is sitting in an envious geographic position where it can choose to launch attacks while defending itself effectively.

China is no rival to the United States in this regard. Situated at Asias center of gravity， China has a large number of neighbors. Territorial disputes exist between China and some of its neighbors， which is eating into much of its power. A number of its neighbors have entered into alliances with the United States， while China has no such alliances with its neighbors.

To put it simply， its rare to find a country that can catch up with the United States， let alone surpass its position in the world. China is among the leading candidates to do so. However， China acknowledges that although its economy has registered extraordinary growth over the last few decades， it is still far behind the United States.

China does not envy Americas global dominance， but it will never subject itself to the U.S. hegemony in terms of sovereignty， territorial integrity and major interests. China hopes the existing international order will become more conducive to developing countries； meanwhile， China has no intention to overthrow or replace the current order.

China expects to establish good relations with neighboring countries and those in the Pacific region. It will not bully smaller countries and will not tolerate being bullied by others. China will not station its military forces in the Strait of Malacca， the Gulf region or in the Pacific， as it is committed to economic growth and overcoming various domestic problems and difficulties. The nation expects to see development， the elimination of war and world peace.

A change in mindset is needed

Not a single country can make the 21st century its own. This century belongs to all people of the world. That said， the United States remains the globes lone superpower， and whether it can preserve its status is not down to any other country， but to what the United States itself does.

After World War II， U.S. GDP accounted for almost half of the worlds total. Following an economic recovery throughout war-shattered nations， U.S. GDP as a share of the global total still stood at 23 percent. When the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1992， many people believed that as the Cold War came to an end， the globe would enjoy peace under U.S. reign and the“American century” would thrive. The Bill Clinton administration accumulated huge wealth for the United States in the 1990s. The United States hegemonic position and political influence， as well as its economic and military power， seemed to have peaked.

However， the United States encountered economic recession during the George W. Bush administration， as the financial crisis in 2008 engulfed America and spread to other parts of the world. Particularly after the September 11， 2001 attacks， the United States vowed to eliminate terrorism. It subsequently invaded Afghanistan and Iraq， with the two wars exhausting the country. Having invaded Afghanistan in the late 1970s， the Soviet Union spent a decade at war there. It never quite recovered and later slipped into disintegration. Similarly， the United States has been mired in conflict in Afghanistan for more than 10 years， though its situation is much better than that of the Soviet Union.

The United States is doing all it can to maintain its leading role in the world. In order to seek a sense of absolute security， it chooses to escalate an arms race， which imbeds the seeds of conflict. It is establishing a network of global alliances to make enemies with certain countries. The United States tends to interfere with the internal affairs of others， including on military issues， as long as they are deemed unfavorable to U.S. interests or values.

As a Pacific country， China has full reason to keep alert to the U.S. Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy. The United States is creating a strategic layout around China and its intentions are obvious. With the U.S.-Japan military alliance at the core， the United States is trying to rope in South Korea to join. It is also seeking to attract ASEAN countries such as Myanmar， Laos and Singapore and to set China and the Philippines at loggerheads.

Clearly， it is working to isolate China. Nye claims that the United States must ensure with its security treaty with Japan that China will not bully Japan. He will prob- ably never find anyone that agrees with him on this idea in China. Before it was driven from China at the end of World War II， Japan persistently invaded China， conquering its territory and slaughtering its people. Have the Japanese leaders sincerely admitted to the wartime crimes committed by Japan？ The United States repeatedly claims that it will not take sides on the sovereignty of the Diaoyu Islands， but it also claims the islands fall into the sphere of the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security Between the United States and Japan. Currently， by magnifying Chinas threat， the Japanese Government is trying to win more domestic support， promote military buildup， amend its pacifist Constitution and reach its dream of making Japan a “normal country.”

When Japan launched its war of aggression against China in the 1930s， the United States provided it with huge quantities of petrol， arms and munitions. It was not until 1941， when Japan raided Pearl Harbor that the United States changed its strategy and supported the Chinese fight against Japanese invasion. History might， or might not， repeat itself. Both China and the United States need to have a clear idea of the Japanese Governments claim to turn Japan into “a normal country.” What does this assertion imply？

Nye cited at least 112 experts and scholars views， all from America and Europe. Throughout the book， we can find only one sentence uttered by a Chinese professor， Yan Xuetong from Tsinghua University. In the view of Chinese critics， this shows that it is difficult for the author to claim that he presents a balanced picture of China-U.S. relations.

However， as Nye pointed out in the preface of the Chinese version， China and the United States will seize opportunities to make correct choices， and conflicts are not unavoidable. This is what China is expecting to see.