Can Merkel Secure A Fourth Term?

Can Merkel Secure A Fourth Term?

Germany’s refugee crisis is unlikely to end the iron lady’s political life By Zhao Ke

The author is an assistant researcher with the Institute for International Strategic Studies of the Central Party School of the Communist Party of China

Financial Times (FT) chief economics commentator Martin Wolf described today’s Germany in an article entitled Europe’s Lonely and Reluctant Hegemon in the following words: “Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon ‘em. Germany is now experiencing the last in full measure.”

Beyond all doubt, Germany’s global status has not reached such heights since World War II. Thus, the British observer also drew attention to one of history’s great ironies: “Germany has won through peaceful means the position it sought through force of arms. Like it or not, the Federal Republic is Europe’s central power.”

Germany’s role within the eurozone and the EU has only increased in recent years. Since the outbreak of the European debt crisis, German pre-eminence on the crisishit continent has been more apparent than ever. From economic woes to the Russian annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea and the current migrant crisis—Europe needs its most powerful player.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the 18th Franco-German cabinet meeting in the east French city of Metz on April 7

Daunting challenges

Germany’s status is interwoven with its long-serving leader, Chancellor Angela Merkel. Despite being a key state and continental figure, with a hat-trick of electoral victories behind her, uncertainties exist over how long she’ll remain in charge. Only a year ago, many worried about Europe’s trajectory without her, not whether she could win a fourth election in 2017. However, her controversial decision toopen German borders to hundreds of thousands of refugees on September 5, 2015, has been widely criticized by other political parties such as the Christian Social Union, which has said that Merkel’s decision to allow in unregistered refugees was “an unparalleled historical mistake.” Many observers claim Merkel has already exhausted her political capital, and some even believe she may have to step down before the 2017 general election due to uncertainties brought about by the current refugee crisis in the country and on the European continent at large.

On July 15 last year, Merkel appeared on TV show Living in Germany with a group of high school students, including 14-yearold Palestinian girl Reem Sahwil. Reem shared with the chancellor her anxiety over deportation due to the imminent expiry of her father’s visa. Her dreams of attending a German university would be shattered, and her family would have to return to a refugee camp in Lebanon.

Merkel responded by referring to the toughness of politics: “You are an extremely nice person, but you also know that there are thousands and thousands of people in Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon.” She stated that Germany could not manage all the refugees from the camp, bringing tears to the eyes of Sahwil. After the broadcast, Merkel was widely accused of looking clumsy and lacking empathy.

However, several weeks later, Germany’s “iron lady” surprised many by choosing to open the German border to refugees, and within a year, the country had accepted more than 1 million.

The massive influx of refugees has brought new pressures to German society. The sexual assaults in Cologne on New Year’s Eve and recent incidents, such as the massive shooting that killed nine in Munich on July 22 and the machete attack in Reutlingen, south Germany, on July 24, have sparked a wave of criticism against Merkel’s refugee policy.

Some media outlets went as far as to claim this would deal a fateful blow to Merkel’s political career. Germany’s Spiegel magazine wrote that if Merkel isn’t successful in reducing the flow, “she’ll either be swept out of office or she’ll have to build the fences that she never wanted.”

But in reality, Merkel’s policy on asylum accords with mainstream public opinion in the country and her ruling foundation has not been fundamentally weakened.

A refugee boy waves the German flag at a Greek city bordering Macedonia on March 7

Steady leader

A poll published on May 25 on refugee issues by the German Institute for Economic Research shows that 75 percent of Germans believe the influx of migrants poses many problems rather than an opportunity, at least in the short term. However, 83 percent are willing to accept refugees from war-torn nations, and 69 percent believe it is necessary to provide asylum for them, based on the Geneva Conventions and related EU laws.

Germany has arguably been plunged into a climate of fear due to the recent spate of attacks, mounting pressure on the government to shift its stance on refugee policy. However, Merkel has refused to budge, reiterating her immigration mantra at a Berlin press conference on July 28. “I didn’t say it would be easy. I said back then, and I’ll say it again, that we can manage our historic task—and this is a historic test in times of globalization—just as we’ve managed so much already, we can manage it.”

In spite of criticism, Merkel’s handling of the refugee crisis, her outstanding leadership is widely respected and forms the backbone of European integration. The European project would unravel if Merkel left office, as Germany would revert to a narrower, more inward-looking narrative. Therefore, the outcome of the 2017 German election is pivotal not only for the nation, but also for the entire continent.

On December 9, 2015, Merkel was named Time Person of the Year, becoming the first woman to hold the title in 29 years. In the official endorsement, the publication pointed out Europe’s mounting challenges: debt, refugee and migrant crises, which threaten European integration. It stated that Merkel stepped into each of these crises and made tough choices when she had to.

“You can agree with her or not, but she is not taking the easy road. Leaders are tested only when people don’t want to follow. Merkel provided steadfast moral leadership in a world where it is in short supply,” the endorsement reads.

With such a favorable appraisal and having spent over a decade leading her country, even if Merkel falls at the 2017 election, she will have left an indelible mark on Germany and on Europe as a whole.

Copyedited by Dominic James Madar

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