Will China’s Scale of Debt Turn into Crisis?

Recently， in a news conference held by the Information Office of the State Council， Li Yang， president National Finance and Development Lab at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences， said that China governments scale of debt is still under control. China has enough capital and cash to deal with debt risk. There will be no debt crisis. He added there is small opportunity for China to face a debt crisis， which means that， even if large scale of debt default appears， China will have enough capital to deal with it. We will duly handle it and the national economy will not be negatively impacted.

Li Yang further explained， by the end of 2015， China has a total debt of 168.48 trillion RMB with a leverage rate of 249% of the whole society. The debt ratio of residential department is 40%， financial department 21%， governmental department 40% and non-financial corporate department 131%. At the same time， China owns a special body of financing platform， whose debt is highly connected to local governments. Li Yang stated that the differences among various debt index were quite diversified. The diversity is mainly caused by different dealing methods of financing platform.

According to data provided by Treasury Department， by the end of 2015， the central government debt included in budget management is 10.66 trillion RMB. Local government debt reached 16 trillion RMB. National government debt reached 26.66 trillion RMB in total. The current year GDP scale of 2015 was 67.67 trillion RMB，

Li Yang said， although the government debt level has reached 56.8%， it is still lower than warning line of 60% defined by EU. Thus， its still not in its highly risk period. The world is facing debt problems. Compared with other countries， Chinas debt pressure is not that high.

China has a tradition of high saving rate， which is also the key base for risk withstanding. Li Yang pointed out：”China is a country with high saving， although theres debt， it is only debt to one of us. The foreign debt rate is only 3%. All things can be done without reliance to international elements， there is no chance for disruptive or disastrous changes. Besides， Chinas state-owned enterprises， state-owned banks， local government and central government are actually controlled by one sovereign person. Chinas special dealing method of bad asset has been made. Western countries cant extend their hands to private enterprise. However， state-owned enterprises own state-owned assets， which can find money for the state-owned enterprises from other channels.

Li Yang emphasized：”We should maintain vigilant to Chinas high debt rate. If it is not stopped， the economy vitality will be ruined. Debt resolving actually is to fill up bad assets with good assets. If we keep doing in this way， the net fortune of the society will be reduced， which can do harm to the long-term development of the economy.”Li Yang suggested a multidisciplinary team shall be involved to help solve this problem. He said：”Debt is not just a problem faced by monetary department， financial department， banks or NDRC. Debt problem is an economic phenomenon involving all areas， which needs comprehensive and integrated solution. ”