The Specter of Containment

By+Yu+Lintao

The Republic of Korea （ROK） is facing a huge backlash from within and externally due to its decision to deploy the United States militarys Terminal High Altitude Area Defense （THAAD） system on the Korean Peninsula.

Almost immediately after Seoul announced its decision， thousands of residents from the candidate sites rallied to protest the possible deployment. Angry protestors in Seongju， 200 km southeast of Seoul， threw eggs and water bottles at Prime Minister Hwang Kyo Ahn on July 15， the third consecutive day of protests.

Locals have claimed that the noise and electromagnetic waves emanating from the THAAD radar will pose grave health threats to local residents， and the deployment will ruin the towns economic mainstay， melon farming， and cause environmental hazards.

With such loud voices clamoring against the system， one begins to wonder： Will the deployment meet the security challenges of the ROK？

The military effectiveness of THAAD on South Korean soil is still up in the air. According to the South Korean Defense Ministry， the deployment of THAAD is aimed at the increasing threat of a missile attack from the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea （DPRK）.

However， the THAAD system was designed to intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles at an altitude of over 50 km， said Yevgeni Kim， a senior researcher at the Center for Korean Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Should the DPRK use nuclear weapons against the ROK， its missiles will fly at a much lower altitude， Kim noted in an interview with Xinhua News Agency. According to observations of other military experts， North Koreas missiles are likely to fly at an altitude of less than 20 km and will be capable of striking Seoul within a minute and the entire ROK within 10 minutes. They also said that the DPRK could use technol- ogy devised to split its warhead-carrying missiles into multiple pieces to block the THAAD radar from identifying the actual warhead. Therefore， using the THAAD to thwart nuclear threats from North Korea could be akin to using a pistol to kill a mosquito.

Thus， the real aim of the deployment is toward Russia and China， rather than at the DPRK as was claimed， Kim said.

At the same time， the move is unable to bring denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula， but will aggravate tensions in the region as Pyongyang may see itself as being backed into a corner and thus take further actions to accelerate its nuclear projects.

In fact， after Washington and Seouls announcement of the THAAD deployment， Pyongyang has warned that it would take“physical action.” On July 19， North Korea testfired three ballistic missiles into its eastern sea in an apparent protest of the deployment.

Moreover， Seouls decision has been met with resistance from regional countries including China and Russia， as the system is detrimental to their security interests.

World peace is precariously based on the theory of deterrence underlining mutually assured destruction， which argues that the threat of using nuclear weapons against the enemy prevents the enemys use of the same weapons.

THAADs radars can spot missiles as far away as 2，000 km， meaning that any missiles fired from within China and Russia will be under THAAD surveillance. This enables the United States to keep a close eye on the two countries military movements. As Kim suggested， the deployment of the THAAD system in South Korea is truly aimed at intercepting Russia and Chinas ballistic missiles that could be launched in retaliation against a possible U.S. nuclear strike. So， “it is a step that undermines the global balance of power， and the existing security system in Northeast Asia，” Kim said.

A popular view within China and Russia echoing Kims is that it serves the United States pivot to Asia strategy， regardless of the effect it has on regional stability. Russias Arms Committee at the Russian Federation Council has warned that missile units could be deployed in eastern Russia in response to the THAAD deployment. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has also expressed firm opposition to the ROKs move.

There are widespread concerns among South Korean business circles that the THAAD deployment will have a negative impact on the countrys economy.

Soon after the THAAD announcement， shares of South Korean companies which depend heavily on Chinese consumers and travelers for revenue fell sharply—LG Household & Health Care， for example， tumbled 4.5 percent. South Korean cosmetics， tourism and retail industries are worried about an adverse reaction from Chinese consumers， one of their biggest sources of profit.

The JoongAng Ilbo newspaper cited an official from the ROKs Ministry of Trade， Industry and Energy as saying that the ministry is also reviewing the export conditions of South Korean firms more closely after the THAAD announcement.

Beside South Korea， Japan has reportedly been considering deploying the THAAD. A miniature NATO-like military arrangement seems to be forming in Northeast Asia. If so， what moves could their neighbors take？ Some Chinese military strategists have suggested new paths for the future： develop new strategic weapons and stay close to military partners.

If that is really the case， Northeast Asia is likely to become embroiled in a horrible arms race， with the region plunging into real danger.