Analysis on Chinese Regional Differences in International Tourism Foreign Exchange Earnings with Method of One-way Variance Analysis

Zhang Liuchen （ Statistics in School of Economics of Nanjing University of Finance and EconomicsNanjing，210023）

Analysis on Chinese Regional Differences in International Tourism Foreign Exchange Earnings with Method of One-way Variance Analysis

Zhang Liuchen （ Statistics in School of Economics of Nanjing University of Finance and EconomicsNanjing，210023）

Based on data over 31 provinces and cities in China from 2006 to 2013, this thesis first divides those 31 provinces and cities into four economic regions including northeastern region, central region, eastern region and western region.Based on data over 31 provinces and cities in China from 2006 to 2013, those 31 provinces and cities were devided into four economic regions in this thesis, including northeastern region, central region, eastern region and western region.Then, it takes international tourism foreign exchange earnings as the dependent variable, the four economic regions as the factor to measure the difference of international tourism foreign exchange earnings in different regions, and finds out the main reasons of it. Through the one-way variance analysis on international tourism foreign exchange earnings, we can know that international tourism foreign exchange earnings have differences in different regions apparently. Besides, significant differences can be found between northeastern and central regions as well as eastern and western regions, while it is not the same case between the central and western regions.

international tourism foreign exchange earnings, one-way variance analysis, regional differences

I．Introduction

International tourism foreign exchange earnings is an essential integrated index in measuring tourism economic activities and its effects．It reflects directly the running state of tourism economy in this country or area． And it is also an important symbol of its tourism development．Since 1990s, Chinese tourism foreign exchange earnings have increased continuously, the overall level of its inbound tourism has got significantly improvement． One of the reasons is local government’s support in tourism development． Another is that Chinese inbound tourism development model has changed from receipt type to business type． As a key in tourism, inbound tourism is an important indicator in measuring comprehensive development of tourism． It is an effective method of improving tourism effects and increasing tourism earnings． It is also an important means of opening wider to the outside world and promoting foreign exchange and cooperation． From the policy of “striving for the development of inbound tourism, standardizing the development of outbound tourism to fully enhancing domestic tourism ”, we can see that inbound tourism has played an important role in Chinese tourism development． Regional imbalance in economic development is a common social economic phenomenon, which is especially true in tourism development． We may concern tourism foreign exchange earnings have got overall increased, what’s more, we should keep a watchful eye on its differences in different regions． Too big gap may cause ranges of issues． That is definitely opposite to the aim of coordinative economic development in China． Therefore, this paper pays close attention to the regional difference in international tourism foreign exchange earnings and expounds the importance of regional cooperation．

Chinese scholars have also adopted various methods to do research and analysis on differences of tourism economic development． Ye Huping（2005）has combined standard deviation, variable coefficient, Gini coefficient and Theil index to analyze the regional differences in Chinese international tourism earnings, getting the result that absolute differences have been in expanding trend though relative differences have got narrowed． Wang Kai and some other scholars （2007）have taken comprehensive index instead of a single value as the indicator in measuring level of regional tourism development, getting the result that east region has taken the most vital part in tourism economy and the regional differences of tourism economy development have been in sustainable．

This paper has adopted the method of experimental design to do an empirical analysis on regional differences in international tourism foreign exchange earnings, finding out the features and influence factors of China’s regional differences in international tourism foreign exchange earnings and giving relevant suggestions．

II．Method Summary

Analysis of variance has been first proposed by British statistician Ronald Fisher． The basic idea∶ through analyzing and researching the variations of different variables in total variation to confirm the influence levels of control variable on research results． Analysis of variance can analyze whether control variables in different levels can bring about significant differences in results． Only considering the influence on results with a single factor is one-way variance analysis．

One-way variance analysis can test whether different levels of a certain control variable can cause a significant difference or change to the observable variable． First, set a null hypothesis H0∶m1=m2=L=mk (k is level figure); denote total sum of squares of variations by SST, then decompose it into two parts∶ one is the deviation caused by the control variable, we call it SSA (interlock sum of squares of deviations), the other is SSE (intra-class sum of squares of deviations) caused by random variables． That is∶ SST=SSA+SSE．

Decomposition

As for the given significant level a, we can get Fa(k-1,n-k) with table lookup． When F＜Fa, we have no reason to reject the null hypothesis and can only consider it has no significant differences in mean value． Otherwise, reject the null hypothesis．

There are three basic hypothesizes should be paid attention to in doing analysis of variance∶

(1) All observation data are from the normal population． When n is big enough, this condition usually comes into existence;

(2) All observation data are random;

(3) All normal populations share the same variance． That is homogeneity hypothesis of variance．

III. Data Selection and Processing

(i) Variable selection

International Tourism Foreign Exchange Earnings

The measure of inbound tourism economic development difference is always based on certain indicators which can measure the overall situation of inbound tourism of various regions． Studying the inbound tourism from an economic point of view, the selected indicator is mainly the international tourism foreign exchange earnings for it can basically reflect the inbound tourism development of a country or a region． Besides, China’s international tourism statistical indicator system is relatively perfect, the statistical timeframe of tourism foreign exchange earnings of different provinces, cities and regions is earlier and the statistical calibers are consistent which ensures the comparability and the duration of the indicators． Therefore, international tourism foreign exchange earnings are selected as the measurement indicator indicating regional differences of China’s inbound tourism economic development．

(ii) Data Specification

This paper chooses the data from 2006-2013 of China’s 31 provinces and cities． The corresponding international tourism foreign exchange earnings are from China Statistical Yearbook for Regional Economy, see Table 1． The 31 provinces and cities is divided into northeastern, central, eastern and western, four economic regions, with Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang in the northeastern region; Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei and Hunan in the central region; Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong and Hainan in the eastern region; and Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sihcuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Xizang, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Sinkiang in the western region． The dta of Taiwang, Hong Kong and Macau are not included． International tourism foreign exchange earnings are adopted to describe statistically the inbound tourism development and economic level of various regions．

Table 1 International tourism foreign exchange earnings of the four regions from 2006-2013

IV．Empirical Analysis

In order to verify whether significant regional differences exist in China’s international tourism foreign exchange earnings because of different economic development levels, this paper takes regions as the factor variables, the data of international tourism foreign exchange earnings as a test repeated for eight times, and one-way variance analysis as the study method． SPSS18．0 software is adopted for data processing．

(1) Normality Test

Figure 1: The Q-Q figure of international tourism foreign exchange earnings

From the Q-Q figure representing the data of Table 1 (see figure 1), it can be seen that the figures do not fall well on a straight line． And in the homogeneity test of variance, the corresponding value of P is 0, rejecting the null hypothesis of homogeneity of variance． To meet the fundamental hypothesis of variance analysis, this paper carries out logarithmic transformation on all the figures． For the transformed figures see the following Table 2．

Table 2 International tourism foreign exchange earnings after logarithmic transformation

From the Q-Q figure (see figure 2), we can see that the test figures fall well on a straight line, indicating that the figures meet the hypothesis conditions of normality．

(2) Homogeneity test of Variance

The test method we often used in judging whether homogeneity exist in multiple sample variances is Levene test． Test results are as follows∶

Figure 2 Transformed Q-Q figure of international tourism foreign exchange earnings

It can be concluded from the results of homogeneity test of variance∶ the adjoint probability is 0．272, greater than the significance level 0．05． Thus, from the homogeneity test of variance, it can be regarded that the population variance of each group is equal．

(3) One-way variance analysis

Figure 3 One-way variance analysis

From Figure 3, it can be seen that the international tourism foreign exchange earnings F=47．769, the corresponding adjoint probability P=0．000 ＜ 0．05． So the null hypothesis is rejected, indicating that there is significant difference of international tourism foreign exchange earnings among different regions． But whether the differences exist between the four regions or just between two or three regions needs further comparison． Here, we adopt Least Significance Difference (LSD) for the multiple comparisons．

(4) Multiple Comparisons between One-way Blocks

Figure 4 Multiple comparison results through LSD

Figure 4 shows the multiple comparisons of the international tourism foreign exchange earnings in the four regions, among which block 1, 2, 3, 4 respectively represents the northeastern, central, eastern and western region． When the given significance levelα=0．05, the there exists significant difference between northeastern international tourism foreign exchange earnings and those of the other three regions, while there exists no significant difference between the central and the western regions．From Figure 5, it can be concluded that the international tourism foreign exchange earnings in the eastern region are the highest among the four, the northeastern is second to it, and the exchange earnings of the central and the western are relatively lower．

Figure 5 Mean value figure

V．Conclusions and Countermeasures

In this paper, one-way variance analysis is used to analyze the regional differences in international tourism foreign exchange earnings．By using the variance analysis, it can be concluded that that international tourism foreign exchange earnings are obviously different in different regions, especially in the northeastern, central, eastern and western regions, but there is no significant difference between the central and western regions． The inbound tourism in the east develops fastest, which is much higher than that in central and western region． This phenomenon also shows the regional difference is significant．

According to Tourism is a highly dependent industry，the natural resources, economic foundation, geographical position and scientific and technological level of each province are not the same, so the international tourism foreign exchange earnings in each province has a big gap in term of the economic contribution． The development of tourism in the northeast, central, east and west has a significant difference, which is not conducive to the coordinated development of regional economy． Both in theory and practice, studying the spatial difference of the development level of tourism economy in China plays an important role in correctly understanding the role of tourism in regional economic development, optimizing the spatial distribution of tourism resources and productionfactors, improving the regional economic structure, developing targeted and effective control policy of regional economic difference, and promoting the sustainable and coordinated development of China's tourism industry．

For the development of tourism, regional cooperation is the best way． Neighboring provinces should negotiate and cooperate with each other and jointly develop a series of tourism routes with thematic feature, forming a tourism industry circle that is the development of regional integration tourism that regards tourism economic cooperation as the pioneer．

The development differences of the northeast, central, east and west should be paid more attention to． Various objective conditions has gradually resulted in the widening gap in four major economic regions．Furthermore, imbalanced pattern will cause overload of resource in some areas and waste of resources in other areas, which is not helpful to the sustainable development of economy．

We should seek appropriate cut-in point of regional cooperation, use resource superiority around the edge, and strengthen regional ties．The eastern region shall take the advantage of high divergence effect to drive the surrounding relatively backward areas． With external forces, the central and western region constantly improve the construction of infrastructure and the development of related services to achieve the sound development of tourism, which has become a powerful engine to promote economic development．

This paper also has some limitations． For the analysis of regional differences, only the factor of international tourism foreign exchange earnings is considered． The regional differences is influenced by various influencing factors, such as inbound population, per capita consumption and regional GDP, which is neglected． Thus multi-factor variance analysis can be carried out to analyze it． And because the level of economic development in these four regions is different, to a certain extent, and the diffderence will cause different tourism foreign exchange earnings． Therefore, when studying the difference of international tourism foreign exchange earnings between regions, we should not ignore the influence of economic differences, and choose the appropriate index as covariates to make covariance analysis so as to reflect the difference of foreign exchange earnings accurately．

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About the Author:

Zhang Liuchen, female, who was born in Funan county, Anhui province in August 1994，with a master degree on Applied Statistics in School of Economics of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics.

10.19312/j.cnki.61-1499/c.2016.10.034