An Ice-Breaking Trip

By Bai Shi

Manila extended an olive branch to fix the discord with Beijing， as Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte chose China as the destination of his first international trip beyond the circle of ASEAN （Association of Southeast Asian Nations） member states since assuming office in late June. A large business delegation accompanied Duterte on the trip， which lasted from October 18 to 21.

As has been widely reported， territorial and maritime disputes exist between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. In recent years， China-Philippines ties have declined to their lowest level because of mounting tensions in disputed waters and repeated diplomatic rows. In particular， the then Philippine Governments unilateral initiation of arbitration proceedings regarding the South China Sea issue at a tribunal in the Hague in January 2013 brought the two states relationship to deadlock.

Now， the Philippine leaders China trip presents a sign of positive change. In talks between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Duterte on October 20， the two sides agreed to properly handle differences and achieve full improvement of， and greater progress in， bilateral ties.

After the meeting， the two governments signed 13 cooperation deals in a wide range of fields including trade， investment， industry， agriculture， tourism and combating drugs.

Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli and President Duterte also attended a bilateral economic and trade cooperation forum in Beijing.

Having resumed their dialogue， though， how will China and the Philippines embrace the warming of their relations after years of tension？

U-turn in policy

The recent presidential election in the Philippines has offered a chance for change， said Ma Xiaolin， a professor of international studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University.

Duterte has showed his political wisdom in handling domestic and foreign affairs despite his administration taking office only three months ago， said Ma.

Unlike his predecessor， Benigno Aquino III， Duterte has chosen dialogue rather than confrontation to seek solutions to the dispute with China in the South China Sea. Meanwhile， Duterte is apparently shifting the Philippines toward independent diplomacy and away from dancing to Washingtons tune as the United States implements its Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy， thereby cooling down the Philippine-U.S. military ties that grew during the presidential tenure of Aquino III， Ma analyzed.

In the last three months， Duterte has criticized Washington on many occasions for its expression of concern about his ironfist measures to combat drug crimes in the Philippines. He said that the Philippines will not participate in U.S.-led patrol missions in the South China Sea.

Meanwhile， “China has expressed a positive tone to Duterte， creating the conditions necessary for him to pay a state visit to Beijing，” Ma stressed.

As part of efforts to rekindle the relationship between Beijing and Manila， Fu Ying， Chairwoman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Peoples Congress， Chinas top legislature， and Wu Shicun， President of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies，met former Philippine President Fidel Ramos， a special envoy of Duterte， in Hong Kong on August 10.

Following on from the meeting， Chinas Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Hua Chunying said on August 12， “We hope that communication will help China and the Philippines restart dialogue and improve relations.”

Obviously， Ramos Hong Kong trip paved the way for subsequent official dialogue between the two governments， Ma said.

China has behaved with great restraint and patience despite the Philippines acting provocatively many times on the South China Sea issue in the past， Ma said.

On May 9， 1999， a Philippine military vessel encroached upon Chinas Renai Jiao shoal in the South China Sea and beached itself there on the pretext of “technical difficulties.” China has repeatedly demanded the vessels immediate removal. But， the Philippines has never withdrawn the ship from Chinese territory. Nonetheless， China adheres to the principle of solving the dispute through bilateral negotiation.

Even after Aquino III administration tried to impose pressure on China by initiating the South China Sea arbitration， Xi attended the annual APEC Economic Leaders Meeting held in Manila in November 2015.

More importantly， Ma said that China has never imposed retaliatory economic sanctions on the Philippines. Instead， China opened the door to invite the Philippines to join the China-proposed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank （AIIB）. After hesitating for months， Manila joined the multilateral financial institution on the last day of 2015. Other ASEAN economies， by contrast， had signed up to join the new lender up to six months earlier.

The adjustment of Philippine foreign policy is a natural outcome， said Su Xiaohui in a commentary for the Peoples Daily published on October 19. Su is deputy director of the Department for International and Strategic Studies under the China Institute of International Studies （CIIS）.

Duterte is clear that boosting development is what his country needs most， and Chinas economic growth offers the Philippines opportunities to share in the benefits of that growth. In accordance with its policy of being a good neighbor， China has maintained peaceful and stable relations with other nations in the region. Many ASEAN states benefit from their good relations with China. So， Duterte understands that he has no reason to take China as a threat， Su said.

Perhaps Duterte also believes that ChinaPhilippines relations should not be hijacked by the South China Sea issue and that the Philippines should not allow itself to be a pawn for the United States to use in pursuing its strategic interests in the Asia-Pacific region， Su said.

The right track

In any case， recent events have ushered in a new beginning for China-Philippines relations， Ruan Zongze， Executive Vice President of the CIIS， said in an interview with China News Service.

Duterte placed high hopes on his China trip， which focused on enhancing bilateral economic and trade cooperation. In an interview with Xinhua News Agency on October 13 prior to his arrival in Beijing， Duterte said he would take the opportunity to conduct dialogue with China so as to enhance mutual understanding and partnership. Then on October 20， Duterte described as “historic” the dialogue he had had with Xi.

In his meeting with the Philippine president， Xi said that China is willing to actively participate in the Southeast Asian nations infrastructure construction—railways， urban rail transit， highways， ports， etc.—so as to benefit the Philippine people.

Without doubt， normalizing relations with China will help Duterte implement his commitments to improving peoples livelihoods， fighting crime and carrying out reforms， Ruan commented.

By participating in the AIIB and Chinas initiative to build the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road， the Philippines stands to gain what it needs to promote its own development.

Furthermore， the change of tack will enable the Philippines to mend its relations with other regional states， according to Ruan.

“The confrontational policy adopted by Aquino III undermined the Philippinespartnership with other ASEAN members，”Ruan said. “So， the normalization of ChinaPhilippines relations is beneficial to the whole region.”

However， the thorny issue that hinders the development of those relations has yet to be solved， Ma pointed out.

Wide divisions on the South China Sea issue still exist between China and the Philippines， especially since Washington continues to exert influence over Manilas policymakers， and this engenders uncertainties in China-Philippines relations， Ma said.

Regarding the two nations main point of contention， Xi said during the talks with Duterte that “managing differences in the South China Sea issue through dialogue and consultation is an important foundation for the healthy and stable growth of ChinaPhilippines relations.”

Therefore， “both sides should be prudent to deal with the sensitive issue in bilateral relations and seek solutions to the issue through the right track of negotiation and consultation，” Ma said.